Severe Thunderstorm Warning 451, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 PM CDT MON AUG 19 1996

...SHORT TERM...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS CHANCE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF EXTREME WESTERN
KANSAS AND CONTINUING TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST. ATM OVER SW KANSAS
REMAINS UNSTABLE. MODIFIED THE MORNING SOUNDING FOR 18Z CONDITIONS AND
CAME UP WITH AN LI OF -8 AND OVER 3000 J/KG. HAVE CHOSEN TO INCREASE
POPS OVER THE NORTHRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE IT APPEARS
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOSTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THE STRONGEST. SHEAR PROFILE INDICATED THERE COULD BE SOME SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS SYSTEM. NGM HAS A MUCH BETTER HANDLING ON THIS SYSTEM AS FAR
AS THE CONTINUITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD GOES. THE ETA DOES NOT.
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO
LOOK FOR ANY TSTM ACTIVITY TO END AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...LONG TERM...
IN LATER PERIODS...FOR NOW STILL PREFER THE NGM SOLUTION. FRH KEEPS AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOSTURE IN THE AREA...SO SHOULD SEE CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT. SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND DEWPOINTS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S...SO FEEL THAT AT LEAST SOME SMALL
POPS ARE NEEDED DURING THE NIGHT PERIODS. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
ON TUESDAY...HAVE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW THE COOLER FWC FOR TEMPS. NEXT FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF TSTMS DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT PERIODS.

DDC  066/087 068/090 065 312
GCK  064/087 066/090 064 512
EHA  063/088 065/092 063 312
LBL  065/088 06\6/091 064 312
HYS  065/085 066/088 063 512
P28  070/090 071/091 070 212

PARKIN

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  DODGE CITY KS
710 PM CDT MON AUG 19 1996

KSZ030-044-200600-
LANE-TREGO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAKEENEY...DIGHTON
710 PM CDT MON AUG 19 1996

.NOW...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR LANE AND TREGO COUNTIES...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 969 WHICH WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR
A LARGE PART OF KANSAS HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR TREGO AND LANE COUNTIES.
AT 705 PM CDT A WEAK COLD FRONT VEXTENDED NEAR A LINE FROM NORTH OF
RUSSELL TO GARDEN CITY AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER NORTH OF THIS FRONT HAS ENDED FOR THIS EVENING.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED FOR MASS MEDIA HEADER...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  DODGE CITY KS
710 PM CDT MON AUG 19 1996

KSZ030-044-200600-
LANE-TREGO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAKEENEY...DIGHTON
710 PM CDT MON AUG 19 1996

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR LANE AND TREGO COUNTIES...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 969 WHICH WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR
A LARGE PART OF KANSAS HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR TREGO AND LANE COUNTpIES.
AT 705 PM CDT A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED NEAR A LINE FROM NORTH OF
RUSSELL TO GARDEN CITY AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER NORTH OF THIS FRONT HAS ENDED FOR THIS EVENING.

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