Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
400 AM CDT TUE AUG 20 1996

...SHORT TERM...
RUNNING A LITTLE LATE THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION WAS ONGOING AT SHIFT
CHANGE. WAS ALSO WAITING TO SEE JUST WHEN THE STUFF WOULD DIE OFF. AS
IT HASN/T YET...THERE ARE STILL SLIGHT POPS IN FORECAST...WHICH
HOPEFULLY CAN BE REMOVED BEFORE SUNRISE.

ANYWAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TRW...WHERE/IF ANY OCCURS
AFTER THIS MORNING/S DISSIPATES. 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN DDC AND GLD THEN ENE INTO
NRN MO. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OUT THERE ALSO CONFUSING THE ISSUE.
MODELS PRETTY MUCH WASH THE FRONT OUT BY AFTN...THOUGH THERE WILL
CERTAINLY BE SOME KIND OF REMNANT FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG BY LATE
DAY. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A CAP TODAY AS FLOW WILL BE S
TO SE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS..WITH ELVATED MIXED LAYER STAYING WELL
TO THE WEST. ETA PROGS CAPES OF AROUND 2000 BY AFTN...SO WENT WITH A 30
POP ALL BUT THE FAR E AND W PORTION OF ZONES. WENT WITH FWC FOR TEMPS
TODAY...JUST SHAVING OFF A DEGREE OR TWO TO ALLOW FOR A.M. CLOUDS

...LONG TERM...
NEXT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ENTERING WA/OR
COAST...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SRN CANADA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST IN INTESITY AND LOCATION...SO
WOULD IMAGINE THAT SFC FRONT WILL AGAIN STALL OVER CENTRAL KS LATE IN
THE DAY ON WED. WEAK FORCING ALOFT WITH DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE AND GOOD
LLJ BY LATE DAY WED. WITH SW FLOW IN MID LEVELS...EXPECT CAP SIMILAR TO
MONDAY/S WITH CONVECTION FIRING LATE ALONG NORTHERN EDGE OF CAP AND
MOVING SE THROUGH THE EVENING.

DDC 088/065 092/066 088 3--
GCK 089/065 092/066 089 3--
EHA 091/064 094/064 091 2--
LBL 090/066 093/065 090 3--
HYS 086/064 090/062 086 313
P28 092/067 094/067 092 3--

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  DODGE CITY KS
110 AM CDT TUE AUG 20 1996

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0500 PM    2 MILES WEST OF KISMET    KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
08/19/96   SEWARD

0525 PM    1 MILE W OF PLAINS        KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
08/19/96   MEADE

0535 PM    8 MILES N OF PLAINS       KS   0.88 INCH HAIL
08/19/96   MEADE

0545 PM    8 MILES N OF PLAINS       KS   0.88 INCH HAIL
08/19/96   NESS

0715 PM    15 MILES NW OF LIBERAL    KS   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/19/96   SEWARD

0753 PM    1 MILE WEST OF BURDETT    KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
08/19/96   PAWNEE

0805 PM    3 MILES SE OF SHAFFER     KS   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/19/96   RUSH

0834 PM    3.5 WEST OF ASH VALLEY    KS   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/19/96   PAWNEE

0845 PM    HUGOTON                   KS   0.75 INCH HAIL
08/19/96   STEVENS

1035 PM    4 NE WINDHORST            KS   60 MPH WIND
|08/19/96   FORD

1043 PM    4 NE WINDHORST            KS   60 MPH WIND
08/19/96   FORD