Flash Flood Warning 82, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
150 AM EDT WED JUN 19 1996

ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING FOR THE CTP CWA TONIGHT.  FIRST AREA OF
ECHOES THAT CAUSED MUCH OF THE FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY IS NOW SLOWLY SLIDING TO THE EAST.  RAFL HAS
ENDED IN FULTON COUNTY AND HAS JUST ABOUT MOVED OUT OF FRANKLIN.
DOPPLER RAINFALL ESTIMATES SEEM TO BE UNDERDONE QUITE A BIT THIS
EVENING.  SPOTTER REPORT FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY INDICATES 6 INCHES
FROM 9 PM TO 12 AM.  RADAR ESTIMATE WAS AROUND 2.8 INCHES.
COUNTIES CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS...AND HAVE REISSUED WARNINGS
TO 500 AM.

SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS NOW A NEW ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE PIT AREA.  LATEST MOVEMENT SHOWS THE
LINE OF STORMS MOVING TO THE EAST...PERHAPS A BIT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THIS MOVEMENT MAY PRECLUDE THIS AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
FROM MOVING ACROSS THE SAME SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES...AND THE NEXT
TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS WARNINGS.

MESO ETA DID A GREAT JOB PINPOINTING THE HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES.  THIS MODEL INDICATED THE AREA
OF RAIN CONTINUING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...
AND GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TREND LOOKS LIKE IT CONTINUES TO DO WELL.

LARGER SCALE MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT INTO WPA.
THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTING THE PCPN NOW OVER PIT AREA.  THIS JET
MAX FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS PA DURING THE EARLY MORNING...
INTO SOUTHERN TIER OF NYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  MODEL QPF SHOWS
BULLSEYE OF PCPN MOVING NORTH INTO NYS AS WELL.  THIS WOULD ALSO
SUPPORT THE PCPN OVER WPA/OH MOVING ON A MORE ENE TRACK ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PA THIS MORNING.

FLOOD WATCHES SET TO EXPIRE AT 400 AM.  ATTM WOULD NOT ARGUE WITH
EXTENDING THE WPA WATCHES INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR WESTERN PA/OH CONVEC TION TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA.  IN THE EAST...MIDDLE SUSQ AND NORTH HAS BEEN SPARED SO
FAR...SO FLOODING POTENTIAL NOT AS GREAT HERE ATTM.  WOULD
HOWEVER EXTEND THE LOWER SUSQ WATCHES INTO WED MORNING.

JUNG