Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
400 PM CDT MON APR 17 1995

NOT MUCH TO SAY THAT HAS NOT ALREADY BEEN SAID. VERY LITTLE GOING ON
ATTM BUT THAT WILL CHANGE DRAMATICALLY IN THE NEXT 3-9 HOURS. SFC LOW
NOW DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF LBB WILL INTENSIFY AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. WARM FRONT FROM SOUTH OF LTS TO OKC TO TUL TO JLN WILL MOVE
LITTLE FROM TUL WEST THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS BUT WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTH TO
THE EAST OF TUL. AS SFC LOW CRANKS UP THIS EVENING WARM FRONT MAY THEN
LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH PARTS OF OSAGE...PAWNEE AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES.

PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS ERN OK AND NW AR BETWEEN 02Z AND
07Z. SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT DURING THE NEXT
2-4 HOURS AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. WIND DAMAGE WILL
LIKELY BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE SQUALL LINE WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND A COUPLE WEAK TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. THE
BIGGER QUESTION IS WHETHER SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE. IF SO...THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING TORNADOES WILL BE
WITH THESE STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR
THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING.

WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS IN ALL ZONES TONIGHT DUE TO THE EXPECTED
SQUALL LINE AND MENTION SEVERE AS WELL. RAPID CLEARING EXPECTED
FOLLOWING FROPA. TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT WINDY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. WILL INCREASE CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AND SHOTGUN 30% POPS IN
ALL AREAS.

THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST
TUESDAY...ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND EXTREME SE OK FOR A
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING TSTM TUESDAY. CHANCES LOOK TOO SLIM TO
MENTION ATTM THOUGH.

GUIDANCE TEMPS HAVE NO CLUE TONIGHT WITH THE NGM MOS DEWPOINT FCST
MAKING NO SENSE. EXPECT DEWPOINTS AOB 40 FOLLOWING FROPA LATER TONIGHT
AND EVEN WITH STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
40S IN MOST AREAS BY MORNING. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK MUCH BETTER IN THE
REMAINING PERIODS.

TUL 45/75/48/67  +003   FSM 48/79/48/73  9003   MLC 46/78/48/70  9003
BVO 42/74/45/65  +003   FYV 45/74/45/70p  +003   IDB 49/81/51/77  8113
BYV 45/74/43/70  +003

.TUL...NONE.

PLATE

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA, OK
122 PM CDT MON APR 17 1995

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....   ST   EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

600 PM     RAMONA                   OK    1.00 INCH HAIL.
04/16/95   WASHINGTON

OKZ060-061-064-172115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
316 PM CDT MON APR 17 1995

AT 315 PM WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHING THE TULSA AREA...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
THIS STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN TULSA COUNTY
DURING THE NEXT 30 MINUTES.  THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS.