Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
330 PM CDT MON APR 10 1995

UPR LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVR NRN NM WL GRADUALLY KICK E AS STGR UPR
LVL WNDS TRANSLATE TO ERN SIDE OF SYSTEM.  ALL MDLS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH UPR LOW MVG TO SWRN KS BY TUE MRNG.
MID LVL FLOW WL CONTINUE TO BACK IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING
DEEP MOISTURE INTO FA AHD OF CD FNT.  THIS IS EVIDENT ON PWS...WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 1.2-1.4 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE NGT.  WITH MID LVL FLOW
PARALLELING THE FNT...CUD SEE SIGNIFICANT TRAINING OF ECHOES. SOME AREAS
HV ALREADY SEEN 2-3 INCHES OF PCPN...SO WL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE FFA FOR
MOST OF ERN OK AND ALL OF NW AR FOR TONIGHT.

CD FNT SHUD MV INTO WRN AR BY SUNRISE...SO WL MAINTAIN CHC POPS FOR MAINLY
MRNG RW/TRW IN WRN ZNS.  OTHERWISE...GRIDDED DATA SUGGESTS WELL DEFINED DRY
PUNCH WL WORK INTO MOST OF THE FA...SO SHUD SEE DECREASING CLOUDINESS BY
TUE EVENING.  ONLY EXCEPTION WL BE OVR THE NRN ZNS WHERE WRAP-ARND CLDS
AND SHOWERS CUD LINGER DURG THE DAY.  DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPR LOW...FAR
NRN ZNS MAY KP SOME CLDS INTO TUE NGT.  WX LOOKS MUCH BETTER BY WED...AS
FNT BLOWS WELL W OF FA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SRN PLAINS.

TEMPS ARE DIFFICULT AT LEAST THRU THE FIRST 36 HRS OF THE FCST SO I STUCK
FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.  MDLS BRING STG LLVL CAA INTO WRN SECTIONS OF
FA...SO SHUD SEE A WIDE RNG IN LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT. MAY NOT SEE MUCH RISE
IN TEMPS TOMORROW AS CAA CONTINUES AND WIDESPREAD CLD CVR CUTS DOWN ON
INSOLATION.  HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE WRLY WNDS MAY OFFSET SOME OF THE CAA.
MAY SEE SOME NR FREEZING TEMPS TUE NGT OVR FAR NE OK/NW AR...BUT WL LET
LATER SHIFT ADD FROST OR FREEZE TO ZFP.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL 46/52 35/62 831-  BVO 42/50 34/60 841-
FSM 56/60 38/65 95--  FYV 53/56 35/58 951-
MLC 48/55 37/63 93--  IDB 60/66 42/65 941-

.TUL...FFA TONIGHT OK 56>58/61>63/66>77...AR 1/2/10/11/19/29.

HODGES

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-111200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT MON APR 10 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4PM FOR THAT PART OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM POTEAU
TO FORT SMITH TO FAYETTEVILLE.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. AT 1PM...THE COLD FRONT WAS ALONG A LINE FROM PONCA CITY
TO NEAR ARDMORE AND THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS MOVING OUT
OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS.  COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLIER TODAY AND CONTINUED INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORMS WERE MOVING IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE FRONT
AND WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP AS COLD AIR ALOFT MOVED INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR NEAR THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE DOES
NOT CONTAIN A GREAT AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL CHANGE WITH HEIGHT BUT
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS AND SMALL SCALE LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES.
THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEHIND IT.
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE WIND PROFILE WILL ALSO BECOME LESS SUPPORTIVE
OF TORNADOES.  HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL
TONIGHT DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND THE THREAT OF
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BE READY FOR ACTIVATION.
PERSONS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER FORECASTS.