Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Tulsa, OK

FPUS3 KTUL 100803
AFDTUL

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
303 AM CDT MON APR 10 1995

THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD PUSHED SOUTH OF TUL LAST NITE HAS STALLED
AND BEGAN MOVING NORTH EARLY THIS MORN. 10 TO 15 KTS SOUTH WINDS SOUTH
OF THIS WARM FRONT INDICATE IT WILL CONTINUE MOVG NORTH THIS MORN...
PERHAPS GETTING CLOSE TO BVO BY NOON. XPCT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
TDA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND WL GO AT LEAST LIKELY POPS IN
MOST AREAS. CAP MAY STILL BE A PROBLEM SOUTH OF FRONT THRU EARLY AFTN...
BUT EVEN THESE AREAS SHUD SEE SOME ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTN.

STG-SVR TRW ARE OCCURRING ATTM ACRS NW OK AND CNTRL KS WELL NORTH
OF THE FRONT. PROFILERS AND MESONET INDICATE STG MOIST SLY FLOW
RIDING OVR THE FRONT AND HELPING TO PRODUCE THE STORMS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS LIKELY TO REMAIN STG-SVR THIS MORN AS THEY SPREAD INTO NE OK.
THE SELS MODT RISK LUKS GOOD...WITH A GUD CHANCE OF HAILSTORMS N OF
THE FRONT TDA-TONITE WITH A FEW TORNADOES PSBL NEAR THE WARM FRONT
LATE THIS AFTN OR THIS EVENING.
.
MODELS AGREE THAT UPR SYSM WL SWING ACRS THE AREA TONITE AND
BRING SOME DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE FA. WL KEEP A SLGT
CHC OF MORN RW- IN NW ARK...WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES IN ALL AREAS
BY AFTN. CUD BE SOME AFTN RW- OVR NE OK WITH SFC HEATING NEAR THE
UPR COLD POOL...BUT FOR NOW WL LEAVE OUT OF FCST. ALL MODELS
INDICATE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LO LVL WNDS ON TUES...AND THE
RESULTING DOWNSLOPE WILL PARTIALLY OFFSET THE CAA. WL STILL
BE COOL...ESP IN WRN AND NRN SECTIONS.
                                                           /9

TUL 70/44/55/35 7811      MLC 78/50/65/40 6711
BVO 62/42/52/32 8811      IDB 82/58/76/43 4611
FYV 77/55/60/35 7921      FSM 80/57/70/40 6921

.TUL...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-111200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT MON APR 10 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  THE
MODERATE RISK AREA IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
DRUMRIGHT TO NOWATA.  ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH HAD PUSHED INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY
BEGAN MOVING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE LAST NIGHT.  AROUND
DAYBREAK...THE FRONT EXTENDED NEAR A DRUMRIGHT TO NOWATA LINE.  THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY LATE THIS MORNING NEAR A
PAWNEE TO BARTLESVILLE LINE.  THE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT IS VERY UNSTABLE...BUT CAPPED BY A LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES HAS BEEN
APPROACHING THE AREA THIS MORNING.  THE UPPER SYSTEM WITH ITS
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL WEAKEN OR BREAK THE CAP DURING THE DAY.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND A FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE MAY
LEAD TO A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE WIND PROFILE WILL BECOME LESS SUPPORTIVE
OF TORNADOES.  HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL
TONIGHT DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND THE THREAT OF
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE READY FOR ACTIVATION BY LATE MORNING.  IN
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AGENCIES SHOULD BE READY FOR ACTIVATION BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-111200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT MON APR 10 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  THE
MODERATE RISK AREA IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
DRUMRIGHT TO NOWATA.  ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH HAD PUSHED INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY
BEGAN MOVING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE LAST NIGHT.  AROUND
DAYBREAK...THE FRONT EXTENDED NEAR A DRUMRIGHT TO NOWATA LINE.  THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY LATE THIS MORNING NEAR A
PAWNEE TO BARTLESVILLE LINE.  THE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT IS VERY UNSTABLE...BUT CAPPED BY A LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES HAS BEEN
APPROACHING THE AREA THIS MORNING.  THE UPPER SYSTEM WITH ITS
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL WEAKEN OR BREAK THE CAP DURING THE DAY.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND A FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE MAY
LEAD TO A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE WIND PROFILE WILL BECOME LESS SUPPORTIVE
OF TORNADOES.  HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL
TONIGHT DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND THE THREAT OF
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE READY FOR ACTIVATION BY LATE MORNING.  IN
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AGENCIES SHOULD BE READY FOR ACTIVATION BY
LATE AFTERNOON.