Tornado Warning 95, NWS Norman, OK

FPUS3 KOKC 090955
AFDOKC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
455 AM CDT FRI JUN 9 1995

NO PCGRIDDS DATA AVBL DUE TO NETWORK PROBS...SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF FANCY STUFF TO LOOK AT.  ALSO WORKING WITH NEW ICWF...HOPEFULLY
ALL WILL TURN OUT RSNBLY WELL....

MAIN OUTFLOW BNDRY NOW ACRS SRN PT OF OK WL PROB BE FOCUS FOR CNVCTN
THIS AFTN.  HAVE SPLIT PCPN FOR TDA INTO ONGOING/THIS AFTN IN SVRL ZN
GRPS.  THE CRNT PCPN SHOULD DIE OUT BY NOON...THEN NEW CNVCTN WL LKLY
FORM AGAIN THIS AFTN OR EVE.

BLV ETA SFC PROG IS MOST RSNBL OF THE SET WITH ITS SMWHT MORE SLY
POSN OF THE LOW IN ERLY PDS.  XPCT HIGHLY UNSTABLE CONDS THIS
AFTN/EVE...SPCLY IN SW.  CAP WL PROB HOLD IN FAR S AND SW...SO WL GO
ONLY ABT 20 PCT THERE...BUT WL STILL MNTN PSBLTY OF SVR EVRYWHR.
SELS MDT RISK APPEARS RSNBL...AND WL ALSO ADD PSBLTY OF HVY RNFL IN
CNTRL AND N CNTRL OK.  CONSIDERED FF WATCH...BUT AM NOT CERTAIN ENUF
OF THE LOCATION OF HVY RNFL TNGT TO ACTUALLY GO FOR IT.  WL LET DAY
SHIFT RECONSIDER.

MODELS DRAG CDFNT THRU THE FA FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT.  PROXIMITY OF
HIGHLY HUMID CONDS IN LWR ATMOS ARGUES FOR MAINTAINING POPS INTO THE
EXTDD PDS...EVEN THO FNT WL PROB MAKE ITS WAY THRU MOST OF THE FA BY
SAT NGT.  XPCT PCPN IN NWRN OK TO BE MNLY RN SAT NGT AS COOL UPSLOPE
FLOW PERSISTS.

DID NOT GET A CHC TO LOOK AT ANYTHING BYND 48 HRS...SO WL LV EXTDD
PDS APPROX AS THEY WERE.

AM RUNNING W-A-Y BHD...AND OUR COMPUTERS DO NOT SEEM TO CARE.  XPCT
ZFP APPROX 510 AM AND OTHER PRODUCTS TO FOLLOW FAIRLY QUICKLY.

FCSTID = 23 = RS
OKC 86 66 80 62 / 80 60 40 40
HBR 90 65 85 63 / 60 60 30 30
SPS 93 68 86 64 / 20 20 30 30
GAG 78 55 80 53 / 40 40 20 30
PNC 85 68 78 60 / 50 40 20 30
DUA 91 71 85 68 / 20 20 30 40

.OK...NONE.
.TX...NONE.

OKZ004>053-TX083>090-092330-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1245 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEARLY ALL OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN VERY
UNSTABLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL FURTHER
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS. MEANWHILE... AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BRUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT THE SURFACE... A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR MANGUM... TO LINDSAY...
TO HOLDENVILLE... WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE... A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BE INTERSECTING THE BOUNDARY IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THE INTERACTIONS OF THESE TWO FEATURES COULD ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL OF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
NORTHWEST PART OF NORTH TEXAS.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT WITH MANY OF THE STORMS AND RENEWED
FLOODING WILL BE A PROBLEM IN SOME AREAS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AT MID LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CS

OKZ004>053-TX083>090-092330-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1245 PM CDT FRI JUN 09 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEARLY ALL OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN VERY
UNSTABLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL FURTHER
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS. MEANWHILE... AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BRUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT THE SURFACE... A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR MANGUM... TO LINDSAY...
TO HOLDENVILLE... WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE... A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BE INTERSECTING THE BOUNDARY IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THE INTERACTIONS OF THESE TWO FEATURES COULD ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL OF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
NORTHWEST PART OF NORTH TEXAS.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT WITH MANY OF THE STORMS AND RENEWED
FLOODING WILL BE A PROBLEM IN SOME AREAS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AT MID LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CS

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
150 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 1995

TIME(CDT)   .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
DATE        ....COUNTY LOCATION....

110 PM      4 NE MCKNIGHT           OK       GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL
6/9/95      HARMON

FM

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
150 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 1995

TIME(CDT)   .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
DATE        ....COUNTY LOCATION....

110 PM      4 NE MCKNIGHT           OK       GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL
6/9/95      HARMON

FM

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
225 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 1995

TIME(CDT)   .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
DATE        ....COUNTY LOCATION....

215 PM      1 S MANGUM              OK       TORNADO
6/9/95      GREER

217 PM      1 S MANGUM              OK       2 INCH HAIL
6/9/95
FM

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
225 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 1995

TIME(CDT)   .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
DATE        ....COUNTY LOCATION....

215 PM  6    1 S MANGUM              OK       TORNADO
6/9/95      GREER

217 PM      1 S MANGUM              OK       2 INCH HAIL
6/9/95
FM