Severe Thunderstorm Warning 538, NWS Norman, OK

FPUS3 KOKC 090955
AFDOKC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
455 AM CDT FRI JUN 9 1995

NO PCGRIDDS DATA AVBL DUE TO NETWORK PROBS...SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF FANCY STUFF TO LOOK AT.  ALSO WORKING WITH NEW ICWF...HOPEFULLY
ALL WILL TURN OUT RSNBLY WELL....

MAIN OUTFLOW BNDRY NOW ACRS SRN PT OF OK WL PROB BE FOCUS FOR CNVCTN
THIS AFTN.  HAVE SPLIT PCPN FOR TDA INTO ONGOING/THIS AFTN IN SVRL ZN
GRPS.  THE CRNT PCPN SHOULD DIE OUT BY NOON...THEN NEW CNVCTN WL LKLY
FORM AGAIN THIS AFTN OR EVE.

BLV ETA SFC PROG IS MOST RSNBL OF THE SET WITH ITS SMWHT MORE SLY
POSN OF THE LOW IN ERLY PDS.  XPCT HIGHLY UNSTABLE CONDS THIS
AFTN/EVE...SPCLY IN SW.  CAP WL PROB HOLD IN FAR S AND SW...SO WL GO
ONLY ABT 20 PCT THERE...BUT WL STILL MNTN PSBLTY OF SVR EVRYWHR.
SELS MDT RISK APPEARS RSNBL...AND WL ALSO ADD PSBLTY OF HVY RNFL IN
CNTRL AND N CNTRL OK.  CONSIDERED FF WATCH...BUT AM NOT CERTAIN ENUF
OF THE LOCATION OF HVY RNFL TNGT TO ACTUALLY GO FOR IT.  WL LET DAY
SHIFT RECONSIDER.

MODELS DRAG CDFNT THRU THE FA FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT.  PROXIMITY OF
HIGHLY HUMID CONDS IN LWR ATMOS ARGUES FOR MAINTAINING POPS INTO THE
EXTDD PDS...EVEN THO FNT WL PROB MAKE ITS WAY THRU MOST OF THE FA BY
SAT NGT.  XPCT PCPN IN NWRN OK TO BE MNLY RN SAT NGT AS COOL UPSLOPE
FLOW PERSISTS.

DID NOT GET A CHC TO LOOK AT ANYTHING BYND 48 HRS...SO WL LV EXTDD
PDS APPROX AS THEY WERE.

AM RUNNING W-A-Y BHD...AND OUR COMPUTERS DO NOT SEEM TO CARE.  XPCT
ZFP APPROX 510 AM AND OTHER PRODUCTS TO FOLLOW FAIRLY QUICKLY.

FCSTID = 23 = RS
OKC 86 66 80 62 / 80 60 40 40
HBR 90 65 85 63 / 60 60 30 30
SPS 93 68 86 64 / 20 20 30 30
GAG 78 55 80 53 / 40 40 20 30
PNC 85 68 78 60 / 50 40 20 30
DUA 91 71 85 68 / 20 20 30 40

.OK...NONE.
.TX...NONE.

OKZ025-090815-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED FOR TEXT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
305 AM CDT FRI JUN 9 1995

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR OKLAHOMA COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE STORM OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY HAS WEAKENED AND IS NOW BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL LIKELY
WITH THE STORM.

MT

OKZ025-090815-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED FOR COUNTY CODES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
305 AM CDT FRI JUN 9 1995

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR OKLAHOMA COUNTY HAS BnEEN CANCELLED.
THE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY HAS WEAKENED AND IS NOW BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL IKELY WITH
THE STORM.

MT

OKZ039-041-043-046>049-091015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
310 AM CDT FRI JUN 09 1995

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 591 HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HAVE BEEN CLEARED FROM THE TORNADO WATCH:

STEPHENS...MURRAY...CARTER...JOHNSTON...COAL...ATOKA AND PUSHMATAHA.
  _
SPEG

T

WTNT71KNHC/WTNT71 KNHC 090850
t

OKZ025-090815-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED FOR TEXT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
305 AM CDT FRI JUN 9 1995

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR OKLAHOMA COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCrELLED.
THE STORM OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY HAS WEAKENED AND IS NOW BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL LIKELY
WITH THE STORM.

MT

OKZ039-041-043-046>049-091015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
310 AM CDT FRI JUN 09 1995

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 591 HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE FOxLLOWING COUNTIES HAVE BEEN CLEARED FROM THE TORNADO WATCH:

STEPHENS...MURRAY...CARTER...JOHNSTON...COAL...ATOKA AND PUSHMATAHA.
  _
SPEG

OKZ004>053-TX083>090-091730-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
630 AM CDT FRI JUN 09 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEARLY ALL OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE
THROUGH TONIGHT.  IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FED INTO THE REGION AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST ACROSS TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.  THE LOCATION OF THE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DETERMINED MAINLY BY THE LOCATION OF SURFACE
BOUNDARIES.  AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...RESULTING FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS...
LAY ACROSS OKLAHOMA ABOUT 75 MILES NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AT 630 AM.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE DAY AND WILL PROVIDE ONE
FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.  OUTFLOW FROM DEVELOPING STORMS IN THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUNDARY WHERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
THE WIND PROFILE...ESPECIALLY IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG INSTABILITY...
WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

BASED ON THESE FACTORS...IT APPEARS THAT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH MANY OF THE STORMS AND RENEWED
FLOODING WILL BE A PROBLEM IN SOME AREAS.

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RS