Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
129 PM MDT (229 PM CDT) SUN MAY 21 1995

...MAYBE IT IS TIME TO GET WORRIED...

SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BEYOND 24 HOURS.  NGM AND ETA ARE SIMILAR
AT UPPER LEVELS...ALTHOUGH ETA IS SLOWER WITH LEAD MID LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE NEAR UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 48 HOURS.  AVN DOES NOT
HAVE THAT SHORTWAVE IN ITS PROG AND IS SLOWEST OF THREE KICKING
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA OUT TO PLAINS.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH POSITIONING OF SURFACE FEATURES...AND
EVEN BETTER AFTER CONSIDERING NGM TENDENCY TO PLACE LEE LOWS A
LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST.

LOW LEVEL JET TO SET UP TONIGHT ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...RAISING
SOME CONCERN FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.  DEWPOINTS AT SURFACE ARE
ALREADY RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE PROGS...AND INSTABILITY IS
GREATER THAN FORECAST.

LOOKS LIKE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CWA AND LIE
DIAGONALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS LATE MONDAY.
PROGRESS OF FRONT MOVES TRIPLE POINT LOW SOUTH ALONG COLORADO/KANSAS
BORDER DURING DAY MONDAY.  PROFILE OF WIND NORTH OF FRONT BECOMES
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON AND MODELS SUGGEST
MCS DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH OF BOUNDARY.  NGM QPF GOES
NUTS ALONG AND NORTH OF KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER.

PREFER A ETA/AVN COMPROMISE AS I AM UNSURE OF PROGRESS OF SHORTWAVE.
FAN AND FWC GUIDANCE ARE SIMILAR.  WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
MINS AS DEWPOINTS ARE GREATER TH0AN PROGGED AND WILL LEAN TOWARD
FAN WHERE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FAN AND FWC.

GLD 53/68 45  HLC 57/74 45
CBK 54/68 45  MCK 55/70 46
TRB 54/70 45  5C0 53/66 45

ENTWISTLE