Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
329 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 1995

PROBLEM WILL BE TIMING THE ONSET OF SEVERE WEATHER.

THE NGM AND ETA PROGS TRIED MOVING THE LOW OFF SOUTHERN CA ACROSS SAN
DIEGO AND INTO NEVADA. HOWEVER...THIS LOW IS NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED
AT H3 AND H5. THIS RENDERS THE H5 AND LOWER LAYER PROGS SUSPECT.
HOWEVER...MY 18Z SFC ANAL SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER SW KS AND THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. BASED ON THE PRESSURE CHANGE CHART...IT LOOKS REASONABLE TO
MOVE THIS LOW SE OVER NW OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. IN OTHER WORDS...SINCE THIS
MOVEMENT MATCHES WELL WITH THE AVN MODEL PROG VALID THIS EVENING...THE
AVN APPEARS REASONABLE AT THE SFC.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY FIRED UP OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOKING AT
THE SAT LOOPER...IT APPEARS THAT EASTERN COLORADO IS CLEARING OUT WHICH
WILL PERMIT CAP BREAKING HEATING AND A START TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THERE. LAST NIGHT...THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN COLORADO MOVED
SLOWLY EASTWARD. DDC/S 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING SHOWED LI OF -7.
MODIFICATION TO REFLECT HIGHER TEMPS/DEW POINTS AT VARIOUS LEVELS
RESULTED IN AN LI OF -11 AND GOOD CAPE. SO...INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR
MAJOR SEVERE WX THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE HELICITY IS QUITE
LOW...WHICH MEANS THAT TONIGHT/S SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY LARGE
HAIL PRODUCERS...HEAVY RAINMAKERS AND GUST PRODUCERS.

WITH RESPECT TO LAST NIGHT/S SEVERE WX...SEVERAL PEOPLE HERE AT DDC
BROUHGT IN 2.5 INCH HAIL THAT HAD FALLEN ON THEIR LAWNS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A BIT LOW ON TEMPS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
PROJECTED MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO EAST OF DDC/S CWA AND MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW TOMORROW...IT IS RESONABLE TO EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP A BIT.
THEREFORE...AM RECOMMENDING TEMPS CLOSER TO THE FMR MOS.

BELL