Tornado Warning 33, NWS Amarillo, TX

FPUS3 KAMA 031949
AFDAMA

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
315 PM CDT SAT JUN 03 1995

THE MODELS DO HAVE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS.  THEY BOTH BRING A WEAK VORT CENTER INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE ETA TENDS TO SPLIT THIS CENTER AND PUSH PART OF
THE VORTICITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES LEAVING A SECOND
VORT CENTER OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO PUSH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THE
NGM BRINGS A MORE CONSOLIDATED VORT CENTER INTO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.  THEN ANOTHER WEAK
VORT CENTER MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHER DIFFERENCES INCLUDE THE ETA MODEL BRINGING MUCH DRYER AIR
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY.

SURFACE COLLECTIVES DO INDICATE SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE DRYLINE.  THE HARD WAY OF SAYING THE
DEW POINTS ARE DROPPING IN HOB...INK...MAF...AND EVEN LBB. AS
BOTH MODELS START THE DRY AIR PUSH IN THIS AREA...ITS A LITTLE
TOO EARLY TO SAY DEFINITELY THAT THE ETA IS BETTER.  HOWEVER
WITH THE DRYER AIR MOVING INTO THE LBB AREA I EXPECT THE ONSET
OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BE
CONCENTRATED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN YESTERDAY.  WITH UPPER
LOW FINALLY MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT I ALSO EXPECT
MUCH MORE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY.

18Z SOUNDING AT AMA SHOWS A LIFTED INDEX OF -6...CAPE OF
1400...STRONG STORM INFLOW WINDS...HELICITY AROUND 150...AND NO
CAP.  CLOUD COVER AND COOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE SUPPRESSING THE
HEATING IN THE AREA.  HOWEVER...A SHORT BURST OF SUNSHINE WOULD
DEFINITELY MAKE THINGS UNSTABLE.  THE AIRMASS ABOVE THE CLOUDS
HAS BECOME QUITE A BIT DRYER ABOVE 650 MB.  SURFACE DEW POINTS
STILL IN THE 60S.  THE SHEAR IS A LITTLE WEAKER WHILE THE
OVERALL WIND FIELD IS STRONGER.

EXTENDED FCST SHOWS ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE
WESTERN STATES MONDAY.  THE AVN MODEL RUN DOES NOT DIG THE
SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT BASIN...THEREFORE IT PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MUCH FASTER.  UNFORTUNATELY THE MRF RUN HAS NOT
CAUGHT UP TO THIS SOLUTION AND THE LONGEST RANGE GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWS ANOTHER CUTOFF IN THE GREAT BASIN.  WILL MERGE SOLUTIONS
WITH CAUTION UNTIL A MORE CONSISTENT TREND IS ESTABLISHED.  THE
UKMET AND ECMWF BOTH TEND TOWARD THE DIGGING SOLUTION WITH MORE
RIDGING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

PRELIMINARY CCF:
AMA 57/79 58/80 61 2222
DHT 57/74 54/78 54 3222

.AMA...FLOOD WATCH TODAY.
.OK...NONE.

COPLEY

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OKZ001>003-TXZ001>026-040645-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
140 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH WILL SPIN OFF PIECES OF ENERGY WHICH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT.  IN ADDITION...THE DRYLINE ...WHICH
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NEW MEXICO
MOUNTAINS...WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE ENTIRE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
ACTIVATION LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SLATTERY

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>026-040645-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
140 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH WILL SPIN OFF PIECES OF ENERGY WHICH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT.  IN ADDITION...THE DRYLINE ...WHICH
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NEW MEXICO
MOUNTAINS...WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE ENTIRE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
ACTIVATION LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SLATTERY