Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 1994

18Z SFC ANALYS INDCTS CDFNT STRETCHING FM ECNTL KS INTO NWRN OK WITH
CONVCTN CONTG ALG OLD OUTFLO BNDRY ACRS SERN KS.  MID LVL CAP CONTS
TO INHIBIT TSTMS OVR EOK...BUT BLV TSTMS WL MOV ALG CDFNT AS IT MOVS
INTO EOK TNGT.  SELS OTLK EXPLAINS SVR SIT WELL SO WL NOT ELABORATE.
AM CONCERNED ABT HVY RAINS...SPCLY IN NERN CORNER WHERE RIVERS HV ONLY
FALLEN BLO FS.  WL ISSUE A FFA THERE TNGT.  HVY RAINS SHUD BE MNLY NR
THE KS BRDR...BUT RIVERS ARE IN BTR COND IN NWRN PTNS OF FA.

ETA/AVN SIMILAR IN MOVG CDFNT RPDLY INTO SERN OK ARND 12Z SAT.  HWVR
NGM LAGS CDFNT IN NERN OK.  WL GO WITH A COMPRSD MOVMNT TNGT AND THEN
SWEEP CDFNT PAST RMNDR OF EOK SAT.  AFTWDS DRIER AIR SHUD ADVCT INTO
EOK WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE 40S SAT NGT.  MDLS SIMILAR IN SHOWING GOOD
UPR RDDG SUN AND WITH MSTLY SUNNY SKIES XPCT TEMPS TO WRM INTO THE 70S.

TUL 62/72/51/74 6300               BVO 58/70/49/73 7200
MLC 66/76/55/77 44-0               IDB 65/78/56/78 3410          ..11..

.TUL...FFA NERN CORNER TNGT (ZNS 56/57/58/63).

OKZ054>077-071200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 1994

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TONIGHT IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS NORTH OF A CUSHING TO
SAPULPA TO WEST SILOAM SPRINGS LINE.  TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE...THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT IN EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...A WARM LAYER OF AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING UNTIL THIS EVENING.
THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF KANSAS INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  THE CONVERGENCE OF THE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF
THE FRONT AND THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARM LAYER OF AIR ALOFT AND TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH ENOUGH WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT.  ALTHOUGH THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...A
A FEW STORMS IN EA(ST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAY STILL BECOME
SEVERE LATE TONIGHT.

SPOTTER GROUPS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST AND BE PREPARED FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION TONIGHT.

OKZ054-059-062215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
414 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 1994

AT 414 PM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR IN TULSA INDICATED A RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN WESTERN KAY COUNTY TO THE WEST OF
BLACKWELL. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THE STORM COULD AFFECT
PARTS OF OSAGE COUNTY BY 500 PM.

WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR OSAGE COUNTY. PERSON IN THAT AREA SHOULD
STAY ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 1000 PM.

OKZ054-059-062215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
414 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 1994

AT 414 PM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR IN TULSA INDICATED A RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN WESTERN KAY COUNTY TO THE WEST OF
BLACKWELL. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THE STORM COULD AFFECT
PARTS OF OSAGE COUNTY BY 500 PM.

WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR OSAGE COUNTY. PERSON IN THAT AREA SHOULD
STAY ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 1000 PM.

OKZ054>077-071200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
537 PM CDT FRI MAY 7 1994

SHORT TERM UPDATE...

THE WIND PROFILE HAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERRCELL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN WASHINGTON AND NOWATA COUNTIES.  THE
STORM IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL HAVE INCREASING POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE A TORNADO WAS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST INTO
NOWATA COUNTY.