Severe Thunderstorm Warning 339, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
330 PM CDT MON SEP 21 1992

MODELS IN RSNBL AGREEMENT ON FRONT MOVG THRU ERN OK WITH DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER.  GUID TEMPS IN RATHER CLOSE AGREEMENT ON HIGHS AND
LOWS SO WILL FOLLOW THOSE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

THE PROBLEM IS WHEN THE PCPN WILL MOVE OUT OF ERN OK THIS AFTERNOON.
AT 330 APRS A LINE IS FORMING ALG CDFNT FROM S/CNTRL KS TO SWRN OK.
GIVEN THE MSTR AND INSTBY IN ERN OK...WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF TSTMS
FOR ALL OF ERN OK THRU AT LEAST EARLY EVENING.  SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOW OVER THOSE ZONES...BUT FEEL THE THREAT WILL BE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THAT WILL BE BEST COVERED WITH WARNINGS
...IF NECESSARY...AND NOT A WATCH.

PRELIM NMBRS...   TUL 62/81/52/81 4000   MLC 64/82/53/82 4000
                  BVO 58/78/50/80 4000   IDB 67/84/58/82 6100
/02
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.OK...NONE.

OKZ026>034-040-221200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT MON SEP 21 1992

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THE RISK AREA
INCLUDES PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OILTON
TO TULSA TO JAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.  THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH
OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA REMAINS MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.  SURFACE HEATING WILL DESTABLIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP
TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY.  THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE MAY ALSO BE
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO FORMATION WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN BREAKING UP IN
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THAT AREA WHERE THE
SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS HAVE CREATED A TEMPERATURE BOUNDARY.

THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS
FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  HOWEVER...THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA MAY HAMPER ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THERE.

SPOTTER NETWORKS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR ACTIVATION AT ANY TIME.  PEOPLE THERE SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND
STAYED TUNED FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS.

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 PM CDT MON SEP 21 1992

TIME (CDT)        COUNTY       REPORT

320 PM            HASKELL      DIME SIZE HAIL 4 MILES EAST OF STIGLER

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
412 PM CDT MON SEP 21 1992

TIME (CDT)        COUNTY       REPORT

310 PM            HASKELL      NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN STIGLER