Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
400 AM CDT MON SEP 21 1992

DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVR SERN OK THIS MRNG AND A FEW SCT STMS OVR
NE.  TOPS HV WARMED OVR THE LAST SVL HRS AND HV RCVD NO REPORTS OF SVR WX
SO XPCT STMS TO CTN WEAKENING.  SUBSIDENCE BHND INITIAL S/W WL LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT OVR FA FOR NXT FEW HRS.  RECOVERY OF ATMOS B4 NXT S/W PASSAGE
IS QUESTIONABLE.  WV LOOP INDICATES S/W OVR TX PNHNDL IS DROPPING ESE AND
WL SLO EWD PROGRESSION OF DRYLN DRAPED NWRN OK.  MRH AND STABILITY PROGS
INDICATE DRYLN PSG DURING THE AFTN HRS WHCH WL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STMS TDA.  SERN ZONES WL HAVE BEST CHC OF SEEING REDEVELOPMENT OF SVR
LATER TDA AND WL PLACE HIEST POPS IN THIS AREA.

CDFNT DROPPING THRU NRN PLAINS BARRELS SWD AS NRN STRM S/W MVS INTO
GRT LKS REGION.  NWLY FLOW INCRS OVR FA AS LONGWAVE TROF MVS OVR ERN
US.  NWLY FLOW WL HELP DRIVE CDFNT SOUTH OF RED RVR BY TUES MRNG.
DRYLN PSG AND S/W PSG WL SCOUR MOST OF THE LO LVL MOISTURE OVR NRN
ZONES AND WL NOT MENTION ANY POPS WITH CDFNT PSG.  WL LEAVE LO POPS
IN SE WHR INSTABILITY AXIS RMNS THRU PD.

NOT XPCTG AS MUCH CLD CVR AS MRH PROGS ARE INDICATING TDA AS
MOIST AXIS HAS SHIFTED EWD WITH BTR H8 FLOW.  DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPE
COMPOENT AFT DRYLN PSG AND LESS CLD CVR WL GO CLSR TO WARMER FPC
NUMBERS OVR WRN AND NRN ZONES.  MORE WIDESPREAD RW/TRW AND CLDS
WL KEEP TEMPS IN SE ZONES CLSR TO FWC VALUES.  BULK OF COLDER AIR
ASSOC WITH PSG OF CDFNT RMNS NORTH AND EAST OF FA.  SRLY FLOW
RETURNS TO NRN PLAINS BY 60HRS...THERE4 WL NOT GO QUITE AS COOL
AS FWC IS INDICATING IN LATER PDS...BUT STILL WL GO A CAT BLO
FPC VALUES SINCE FRNT WL ACTUAL PUSH SOUTH OF OK.

07

TUL 8(7/62/81 310   MLC 86/67/84 530
BVO 86/58/79 310   IDB 88/69/86 652

.OK...NONE.

OKZ026>034-210745-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
146 AM CDT MON SEP 21 1992

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. A 145 AM...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
RADAR IN TULSA SHOWED THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NOWATA...CRAIG AND OTTAWA
COUNTIES TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE CITY NOWATA TO FAIRLAND.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WAS TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. RADAR INDICATED A SOLID AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN OVER THAT PART OF OKLAHOMA SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
5 MILES SOUTH OF MCALESTER TO WILBURTON TO STILWELL. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN
PITTSBURG...EASTERN HASKELL...AND EASTERN LATIMER UNTIL AROUND 3 AM.
MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

BE READY FO(R QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING
IS ISSUED. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO NEVER DRIVE THROUGH WATER OF AN
UNKNOWN DEPTH.

OKZ026>034-210900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 AM CDT MON SEP 21 1992

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #854 HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED
OVER NOWATA...CRAIG AND OTTAWA COUNTIES...TO THE NORTH OF A LINE
FROM THE CITY NOWATA TO FAIRLAND.   THE STORMS HAVE DECREASED IN
AREAL COVERAGE SINCE 200 AM AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
TREND.   THE STORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER AREAS WHICH HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT LOCALIZED
LOW LAND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.  MOVEMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WAS EAST AT 15 TO 20 MILES AN HOUR.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  A SOLID AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER THAT PART OF OKLAHOMA SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM POTEAU TO CLAYTON AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM IDABEL TO SMITHVILLE.
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUST UP TO 40
MILES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 500 AM.  MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS
EAST AT 25 MPH.

THERE HAS BEEN AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH ALL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  AS A RESULT THE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN  OKLAHOMA HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LOCALIZED FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR
A WARNING IS ISSUED.  MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO NEVER DRIVE THROUGH
WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH OR WATER FLOWING OVER THE ROADWAY.