Severe Thunderstorm Warning 337, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1005 AM CDT MON SEP 21 1992

CLDS HOLDING OVER ERN OK LONGER THAN FCST BUT SHD BREAK OUT BY ERY AFTN.
PIREPS SHOW TOPS ARND 50-60...AND POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE STARTING TO
SHOW UP IN THE VIS SAT IMAGERY.  SHWRS/TSTMS DVLPD ALG A LINE OF ISENT
LIFT AT 850-700 MB LVL FROM NW AR TO SOUTH OF PNC.  THESE SHD MOVE
ENEWD WITH THE MID LVL WINDS AND THE THERMAL WINDS.  ADDITIONAL DVLPMT
IS PSBL AFTER SKIES CLEAR...SINCE THE SFC BNDRY AND UPPER TROFS ARE
NOT PAST.  THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE EARLIER FCST.  TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE
HIGH BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE CLEARING...SO WILL NOT ADJUST.

/02

.OK...NONE.

OKZ026>034-040-221200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT MON SEP 21 1992

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THE RISK AREA
INCLUDES PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OILTON
TO TULSA TO JAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.  THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH
OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA REMAINS MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.  SURFACE HEATING WILL DESTABLIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP
TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY.  THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE MAY ALSO BE
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO FORMATION WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN BREAKING UP IN
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THAT AREA WHERE THE
SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS HAVE CREATED A TEMPERATURE BOUNDARY.

THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS
FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  HOWEVER...THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA MAY HAMPER ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THERE.

SPOTTER NETWORKS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR ACTIVATION AT ANY TIME.  PEOPLE THERE SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND
STAYED TUNED FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS.