Unrated tornado, New Hope, Texas, June 11, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1221 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

A band of scattered thunderstorms is indicated by the multiple
short range models (CAMs included) this afternoon and evening.
This activity is most likely to occur across areas near Abilene
and move east along the I-20 corridor. Recent satellite imagery
indicates a small amount of cumulus developing, which may
indicate this solution is likely to be the expected outcome. A
Marginal Risk for severe weather has been included across this
area for the remainder of today by the Storm Prediction Center.
Large hail (1"+ in diameter) and damaging winds (60 MPH range) are
the main hazards.

Otherwise, the bigger risk across the area with regards to severe
weather is on Monday afternoon and evening. It is worth
mentioning that the best odds of seeing this activity for tomorrow
remains across areas east of a Throckmorton to Junction line.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are a possibility (20-30%
chance). Any thunderstorm activity will be capable of producing
large hail (2"+ in diameter) and damaging winds (60 MPH range). An
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, high
temperatures will continue to be on the rise with highs well into
the triple digits.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

Storms across the Big Country and Heartland that develop Monday
afternoon may linger into evening hours, but otherwise looks like
a predominantly dry forecast for the upcoming week and weekend
for now. Same basic idea continues...with a trough to the east and
a trough to the west and leaving a weak ridge in place across the
Southern Plains for most of the week. May have a bit of a
weakness in the ridge and more zonal flow for mid week and
forecasted temperatures are down a few degrees verse what we were
looking at yesterday. But ridge builds back into place for the
weekend and temperatures again start to climb well above 105 in
some areas. As mentioned yesterday, will be interesting to watch
whether temperatures can be maximized with the abundant unusually
green conditions across much of the area, as well as the
evapotranspiration going on. Temperatures around San Angelo this
afternoon are lagging behind some what is expected, although
dewpoints are higher and the Apparent temperatures are well above
100. As some drying occurs this week, may well see this few
degrees temperature difference come to an end and allow readings
to soar.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Thunderstorms to the north of KABI at 5Z will move east, staying
north of the terminal, but may send an outflow boundary down,
giving some gusty north winds for an hour or so through 7Z.
Isolated thunderstorm possible Monday afternoon at KABI but given
the isolated nature of the storms, did not include VCTS at this
time. Southeast winds gusting up to 18 KTS likely across the
terminal by noon. KABI may see a shift to east to northeast winds
mid to late afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     69  94  67  94 /  20   0   0   0
San Angelo  73 103  67 101 /  10   0   0   0
Junction    74 105  71 105 /  10   0   0   0
Brownwood   71 100  69  97 /  20   0  10   0
Sweetwater  69  96  66  96 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       74 102  68 103 /  10   0   0   0
Brady       72  99  70  98 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
335 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-122045-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
335 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible across areas near Abilene and also for
areas east of Abilene on I-20. The main hazards are large hail and
damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible again on
Monday. Large hail and damaging winds are the main concerns.

Temperatures above 105 degrees are possible through the end of
the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
919 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

TXZ140-120300-
Brown TX-
919 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Brown County
through 1000 PM CDT...

At 919 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Brownwood, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brownwood, Early, Zephyr and Camp Bowie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
west central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3170 9868 3169 9875 3167 9877 3161 9878
      3154 9890 3173 9909 3181 9903 3174 9869
      3170 9867
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 302DEG 29KT 3172 9898

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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