EF1 tornado, Sublime, Texas, May 18, 2021

1. EF065 to 85 mph

   Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

2. EF186 to 110 mphthis tornado

   Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

3. EF2111 to 135 mph

   Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

4. EF3136 to 165 mph

   Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

5. EF4166 to 200 mph

   Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

6. EF5over 200 mph

   Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

7. Unrated

   The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

Rating

EF1

Date

May 18, 2021

Touchdown

4:54 PM CDT (21:54 UTC)

Lifted

4:58 PM CDT (21:58 UTC)

On the ground

4 minutes

Path length

1.6 miles (2.6 km)

Path width

150 yards (137 m)

Deaths

0

Injuries

0

Property damage

$20,000

County

Lavaca County

Touchdown point

29.494, -96.814

Lift-off point

29.514, -96.828

Record number

2105181554-01

13 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS EWX, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF1. The highest wind the damage implies is 100 mph.

• Tops of tree trunks snapped at bridge over Navidad.
• Large tree uprooted. Pointed ESE. Trees nearby not damaged.
• Large tree limbs snapped. Styrofoam debris in fence.
• Large empty drum tossed and rolled from property to road.

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

An upper level low moved slowly across the southwestern US and generated several rounds of thunderstorms over South Central Texas. Storms during this period produced two tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rain that led to flash flooding. Most of the severe weather occurred in two periods on May 18: the early morning and the late afternoon and evening.

Video evidence and an NWS Storm Survey confirmed a tornado touched down roughly one mile northwest of Sublime, south and east of CR 142. The tornado moved northwest and severely damaged a small house as well as snapped large tree branches. Wind speeds at this point were estimated to be 80-100 mph. The tornado crossed CR 142 between CR 159 and CR 143, west of the Navidad River, and continued through open farm land producing sporadic tree damage. The tornado then crossed CR 138 at the Navidad River, completely snapping three foot diameter tree trunks of a few trees near their bases and snapping large limbs of several other trees. Wind speeds at this point were also estimated to be 80-100 mph. The tornado dissipated to the northwest of CR 138. Sporadic straight-line wind damage, in the form of snapped tree limbs, was also observed along CR 159, 211, and 138, west of the tornadic circulation.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

6 minutes of warning. NWS EWX issued a tornado warning for this county at 21:48 UTC, 6 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 22:15 UTC.

The county was under a tornado watch, issued at 19:29 UTC and running to 01:59 UTC.

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Slight Risk, with a 0.05 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 19:54 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Columbus (66R), 33 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 119 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 21:54 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

The live radar over the trackEvery 2021 tornado in TexasEvery tornado in Texas since 1950Warnings in force in Texas nowThe forecast where you are

9 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.