Unrated tornado, Lone Elm, Texas, May 16, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
235 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday afternoon/

A rainy Sunday for most of us across North and Central TX.
Showers and storms will continue to develop through the evening
hours as a mid-level shortwave moves across the region. While
heavy rain and flooding will be the main threat the rest of the
day, there's a chance that some of the storms could produce brief
spin-ups with damaging wind gusts. The combination of modest
instability (provided by daytime heating) and southerly low-level
flow over our area will continue to support a few strong updrafts
resulting in a few strong or marginally severe storms. Our
thinking is that the tornado potential will remain isolated
through the early evening hours.

The coverage of showers/storms is expected to decrease tonight as
the disturbance moves off to the east. However, we will continue
to monitor the potential for a cluster of storms or MCS that is
expected to move across the TX Panhandle/southwestern OK late
tonight into Monday morning. Most of the high-res guidance
continues to show that this activity will likely impact the Red
River counties around sunrise Monday, moving southeast across
North Texas through the morning hours. With decent instability and
storm organization in place, we can't rule out a strong or
marginally severe wind gust. Specific details regarding timing
remain uncertain since there are still some discrepancies between
guidance. Coverage of showers/storms Monday afternoon will depend
on the progression of the morning convection, therefore we keep
PoPs between 30-60% to account for the general trend of this
activity. Otherwise, highs Monday will stay in the upper 70s to
low 80s across North TX, with low to mid 80s across Central TX.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 247 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021/
/Monday Night Onward/

Unsettled weather will continue into Tuesday and beyond with
severe weather and flooding rains possible through at least the
end of the week.

A deep, cutoff low near the Four Corners Region will lose some of
its eastward momentum on Tuesday. Multiple disturbances on the
periphery of the low will work in tandem with a dryline across
West Texas, allowing showers and thunderstorms to blossom across
the area. The greatest severe weather risk for the next several
days will occur on Tuesday, as ample instability will exist across
the region. Marginal, but adequate, bulk shear values will likely
result in rather messy convection; however, it's possible
multiple MCSs will organize throughout the day, bringing a variety
of hazards to the area. With PWATs approaching or exceeding 2",
the highest rainfall totals of the week are expected to occur
Tuesday and into Wednesday, resulting in a flash flood threat
across North and Central Texas.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue for the remainder of the
week and into the weekend as our upper-level pattern remains
rather progressive, and onshore flow supplies an abundance of
Gulf moisture. A continued threat for strong to severe storms is
expected through the end of the week as we remain fairly
unstable; however, meager bulk shear values may limit the
potential for severe storms. Additional rainfall will exacerbate
any flooding issues, with widespread rainfall totals near 3-6
inches anticipated through next Saturday. Totals in the 6-7 inch
range will be likely near and east of I-35, along with localized
values approaching the double digits in areas that receive the
greatest rainfall.

Rainy and gloomy conditions will keep low temperatures in the 60s
to low 70s and highs in the mid 70s to low 80s for the next week.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18z TAFs/

Concerns...a mix of MVFR/IFR cigs and convective potential through
Monday.

Expect poor flying conditions due to a mix of low ceiling/vsby and
multiple rounds of showers and scattered storms through this
forecast period and beyond. The main concerns through the
afternoon hours will be the potential for occasional lightning
and IFR/LIFR cigs as the showers and storms move across the area.
We're still expecting a break from the precipitation later this
evening ahead of the next round Monday morning. Ceilings and
visibilities will remain MVFR/IFR overnight tonight into Monday.
Additional convection will be possible Monday morning from a
cluster of storms moving in from the northwest. We kept the
mention of VCTS with a TEMPO TSRA across most TAF sites between
12-15Z Monday due to the uncertainties in timing of the heavy
precipitation. Otherwise, expect south/southeast winds 10-15 kt
with higher gusts possible through Monday.

Sanchez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  80  69  79  66 /  60  60  50 100 100
Waco                70  83  69  81  66 /  40  60  50 100  80
Paris               65  78  66  77  65 /  80  80  60  90  90
Denton              66  79  66  75  64 /  50  70  60 100  90
McKinney            66  80  66  76  65 /  70  80  60 100 100
Dallas              68  81  71  79  68 /  60  60  50 100 100
Terrell             66  81  68  79  66 /  60  70  50 100 100
Corsicana           68  82  70  81  68 /  50  70  40  90  90
Temple              69  83  69  81  66 /  40  60  50  90  80
Mineral Wells       66  82  66  76  64 /  40  50  60  90  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
225 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-171145-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
225 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Thunderstorms will be possible across North and Central Texas through
tonight. Lightning and heavy rainfall will be the main threats,
although the strongest storms could produce small hail, gusty winds
and brief tornadoes through the evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
Thunderstorms are expected across most of North and Central Texas on
Monday. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the main
threats, although the strongest storms could produce some hail and
gusty winds.

Widespread thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday, some of which could
be strong or severe. Flash flooding will also be a concern with very
heavy rainfall possible.

Chances for thunderstorms will continue through the remainder of the
week. Additional rounds of heavy rainfall may culminate in additional
flash flooding or significant rises on area rivers and streams. Also,
a few strong or severe thunderstorms are possible throughout the
second half of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
304 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     TORNADO          5 WNW TROY              31.23N 97.38W
05/16/2021                   BELL               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL HOMES SUSTAINED MINOR DAMAGE FROM A
            BRIEF TORNADO ALONG WILLOW GROVE RD BETWEEN
            MOODY RD AND FRANKLIN RD. SOME OUTBUILDINGS
            AND CHICKEN COOPS DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

MSS