Tornadoes · United States · Texas · 2021

Unrated tornado, Lone Elm, Texas, May 16, 2021

This Unrated tornado ran 0.6 miles across Ellis County on May 16, 2021, touching down at 3:14 PM CDT and reaching 50 yards wide. It killed nobody.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mph

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unratedthis tornado

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
Unrated
Date
May 16, 2021
Touchdown
3:14 PM CDT (20:14 UTC)
Lifted
3:16 PM CDT (20:16 UTC)
On the ground
2 minutes
Path length
0.6 miles (1.0 km)
Path width
50 yards (46 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
County
Ellis County
Touchdown point
32.400, -96.963
Lift-off point
32.409, -96.959
Record number
2105161414-01

What the Weather Service recorded

Mid-May thunderstorms associated with an upper low to our west and multiple disturbances out ahead of it produced isolated instances of severe weather and heavy rain across parts of the region. A total of 6 weak tornadoes occurred.

Video was obtained of a tornado east of the Shadow Creek Pumpkin farm. Radar estimated the circulation location near FM 875 and South Prong Creek. No damage was reported or found with this tornado.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

No tornado warning for this county appears in the archive as in force at the moment the tornado touched down. One was issued for the county at another hour that day.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
12:00 UTC04:12 UTCFlash Flood WatchFWD
18:37 UTC19:15 UTCTornado WarningFWD
21:27 UTC05:00 UTCFlood WarningFWD

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Slight Risk, with a 0.05 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 19:51 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), 00:00Z

3.8 hours after it, 57 km from the path. May 17, 2021.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-05-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 496 joules per kilogram, CIN -83, lifted condensation level 815 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-05-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 58 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 24 knots.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
496 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-83 J/kg
Surface CAPE
1903 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
815 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
58 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
137 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.8
0-3 km lapse rate
6.0 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The surface observations

Midlothian/Waxac (JWY), 7 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

Time (UTC)Temp (°F)Dew point (°F)WindGust (kt)Pressure (mb)Weather
18:15 UTC6969160° 10 kt141015.2RA
18:35 UTC69.369.3160° 11 kt161014.9RA
18:55 UTC6969160° 10 kt141014.6-RA
19:15 UTC6969170° 8 kt1014.6+RA
19:35 UTC69.469.4160° 12 kt171014.2+RA
19:55 UTC68.268.2200° 9 kt1014.6-RA
20:15 UTC69.469.4190° 25 kt331014.2+RA
20:35 UTC66.766.7110° 6 kt271014.6+RA
20:55 UTC6969270° 3 kt1014.6+RA
21:15 UTC69690° 0 kt1014.2RA
21:35 UTC6969150° 3 kt1014.2
21:55 UTC6969170° 8 kt161013.9

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 37 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 20:15 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
18:42 UTCTORNADO5 E GrandviewHill, TX5/16 HILL & ELLIS COUNTIES TORNADO - A STORM SPOTTER TRACKED AND RECORDED A TORNADO FROM EXTREME NORTHEASTERN HILL COUNTY INTO ELLIS COUNTY. SOME TREE LEAVES AND SMALL BRANCHES WERE REPORTEDLY LOFTED INTO THE TORNADO CIR
19:00 UTCTORNADOUniversity ParkDallas, TX5/16 UNIVERSITY PARK TORNADO - A TORNADO DEVELOPED AT WILLIAMS PARK, CAUSING MAINLY DOWNED TREE BRANCHES. THE TORNADO THEN TRAVELED NORTHEAST INTO GOAR PARK, UPROOTING A LARGE TREE. SURVEILLANCE FOOTAGE FROM THE FIRE STA
19:02 UTCTSTM WND DMGUniversity ParkDallas, TXSIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE IN GOAR PARK. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
19:08 UTCTORNADO2 Ese MaypearlEllis, TX5/16 ELLIS COUNTY TORNADO NEAR MAYPEARL- VIDEO SHOWS A BRIEF TORNADO TRACKING ACROSS RURAL LAND NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF OLD MAYPEARL RD AND GREATHOUSE RD. NO DAMAGE WAS REPORTED WITH THIS TORNADO.
19:10 UTCTORNADO3 Nne University ParkDallas, TX5/16 NORTHHAVEN TORNADO - THE SAME SUPERCELL THAT PRODUCED A TORNADO IN UNIVERSITY PARK PRODUCED ANOTHER TORNADO JUST NORTH OF ROYAL LN AND EAST OF ST MICHAELS DRIVE. THE FIRST SIGNS OF DAMAGE APPEARED ON LAVENDALE CIRCL
19:11 UTCTSTM WND DMG4 Nne University ParkDallas, TXDAMAGE TO HOME IN N. DALLAS. LOCATION IS ON NORTHAVEN ROAD, RIGHT IN FRONT OF NORTH HAVEN GARDENS.
20:14 UTCTORNADO6 Nne MaypearlEllis, TX5/16 ELLIS COUNTY TORNADO NEAR SOUTH PRONG CREEK - VIDEO WAS OBTAINED OF A TORNADO EAST OF THE SHADOW CREEK PUMPKIN FARM. RADAR ESTIMATED THE CIRCULATION LOCATION NEAR FM 875 AND SOUTH PRONG CREEK. NO DAMAGE WAS REPORTED
20:50 UTCFLASH FLOOD3 Ne University ParkDallas, TXDALLAS FIRE RESCUE RESPONDING TO SWIFT WATER RESCUE AT 7500 BLOCK OF MERRIMAN PKWY.

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2021 tornado in TexasEvery tornado in Texas since 1950Warnings in force in Texas nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of May 16, 2021

8 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
May 1611:14 AM CDTEF0Bell, TX1.950$50,000
May 161:42 PM CDTUnratedEllis, TX2.350
May 162:00 PM CDTEF0Dallas, TX0.330$2,000
May 162:08 PM CDTUnratedEllis, TX0.950
May 162:10 PM CDTEF1Dallas, TX0.690$50,000
May 164:15 PM MDTUnratedCrowley, CO2.620
May 167:40 PM CDTUnratedLamb, TX1.050
May 1610:46 PM CDTEF0Haskell, TX0.1130$100,000

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.