EF1 tornado, Awalt to Estill Spgs, Tennessee, May 25, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
237 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Western portions of the Tennessee Valley have been upgraded to an
Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. A low end tornado threat now exists
with soundings showing relatively weak but enough shear/helicity
to support a low end tornado threat. We still believe the primary
threat with these storms will be damaging winds followed by the
threat for hail and localized flooding and a lower threat for
tornadoes.

Daytime heating has led to a strongly unstable environment
over northern AL with SBCAPE values nearing or exceeding 2000
J/kg over north central and north western AL. A few isolated
showers/storms have formed ahead of the MCS currently moving
through western TN/northern MS but these have not been able to
maintain organization so far and have been weak and short lived.
Behind this first MCS, we continue to monitor an additional line
of storms over north/central AR that will likely move into the
area later this evening. The same threats will be present with
this round, although the most likely threat will be damaging winds
along any bowing segments of the line. At least western portions
of the forecast area may be placed in a Watch within the next few
hours. The remainder of the TN Valley remains in a Slight Risk
(level 2 of 5) today for strong to severe storms.

Models continue to struggle with initializing what is happening
currently, so it will be a day where we rely heavily on real time
observations and trends. Expect the first round/MCS to enter NW AL
between 3-4pm with a second round as late as 8-10pm. Be sure to
have multiple ways to receive warnings as this threat could extend
into the early overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025

We will remain in a warm sectored airmass through the short term
period, with high chances for thunderstorms both on Memorial Day
and on Tuesday. The upper level pattern will transition from
northwest flow to southwest as a sfc frontal boundary lingers
across the lower OH River Valley and into the TN Valley. A series
of upper waves will be embedded within the upper ridge and will
lead to multiple rounds of thunderstorms, with the greatest
chances during peak heating hours in the afternoon and evening.
There is a marginal risk for severe storms each day with the main
threats being damaging winds along bowing segments and large hail,
especially with the more discrete thunderstorms. Cloudy skies will
limit highs to the upper 70s/low 80s each day. Overnight lows will
be on the warm side in the mid to upper 60s. Be sure to monitor
the forecast for updates, especially when considering outdoor
plans for the holiday tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 931 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

A stronger mid/upper trough will finally help nudge the
aforementioned frontal boundary further to the southeast Tuesday
night into Wednesday, but not before bringing at least one more
round of showers/storms to the region during this timeframe.
Notably lower rain chances are forecast for Thursday, but they
will ramp up quickly Friday into Saturday as another shortwave
drops SE through the region, bringing yet another period of
showers and thunderstorms. Below normal temperatures will be
favored during the mid/late week period, with highs in the
mid/upper 70s each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

VFR conditions are prevailing across much of the region although
conditions are forecast to deteriorate this afternoon as several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms move through the area. This
activity is forecast to begin between 19-21z and will likely
persist through the evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the
primary concerns, but a low end tornado threat has been added to
the forecast this afternoon. AWWs for convective lightning and
wind gusts will likely be needed this afternoon and evening.
Reductions to IFR or LIFR could occur during heavier thunderstorm
activity as well. At least low chances for showers/storms will
persist through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...25

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
218 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

ALZ001-002-252000-
Lauderdale AL-Colbert AL-
218 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LAUDERDALE AND COLBERT COUNTIES
THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 218 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Olive Hill, or 8 miles west of Waynesboro, moving
southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Malone, Posey Loop, Northwest Alabama Regional Airport, Littleville,
Florence, Allsboro, Riverton, Wright, Oakland, and Waterloo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8735 3457 8766 3468 8813 3489 8810
      3492 8816 3501 8820
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 296DEG 39KT 3531 8790

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KTW

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>