EF2 tornado, Arnett to Crawford, Oklahoma, June 17, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
559 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 513 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

- Severe thunderstorm chances Tuesday evening through Wednesday.

- Above-average temperatures are expected much of this week and
  into next weekend and staying dry.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

There is a risk for multiple rounds of up to severe thunderstorms
this evening and overnight near and north of the I-40 corridor with
the highest risk in our area across northern Oklahoma. There will
also be an additional risk for flash flooding as well across parts
of the severe risk area as well.

An upper level shortwave will develop lee of the Colorado Rockies
which will be digging through the Central & Southern High Plains
early this evening to across our CWA overnight.  Meanwhile down at
the surface the remnants of the MCS activity early this morning
had produced an outflow boundary stretched across northern
Oklahoma along with a synoptic front/cold front pushing through
later tonight. Another surface feature is a dryline stretched lee
of the Colorado & New Mexico Rockies which will be punching into
the Southern High Plains where a surface low will be in place.

The initial round of severe convection may initiate late this
afternoon into the evening hours near and north of the
aforementioned outflow boundary while additional convection may also
initiate along and east of the dryline bringing storms in from the
west.  Heating will strongly destabilize the atmosphere in the
warm/moist sector by late afternoon as both NAM & RAP deterministic
solutions are suggesting 3000-4000 J/kg of SBCAPE to perhaps higher
near the Kansas/Oklahoma state lines.  The deep-layer shear will
also be sufficient for organization and multiple supercells capable
of producing a tornado in the highest risk area although large hail
& damaging wind gusts of 70 mph or greater will pose the greatest
severe hazards.  Additional rounds of storms will follow into the
overnight hours as a second mid-level shortwave and surface front
start pushing through enhanced by low-level shear from a
strengthening low-level jet overnight.  Although the severe risk
will be highest with this first round of storms, the severe risk
area after midnight may be restricted to areas near, east, and south
of the I-44 corridor as those areas to the west and north may have
destabilized.  With the heaviest rainfall rates and training from
multiple storms across parts of the severe risk area, there will
also be an additional risk that excessive rainfall in short periods
of time may produce a flash flood hazard.  As a result we have a
Flood Watch in place across all of northern into a portion of
central Oklahoma down to Oklahoma City in effect through the morning
hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Isolated storms will likely be ongoing after sunrise along the slow
moving cold front although expected to be non-severe and mainly east
of the I-35 corridor.  Diurnal heating will again destabilize the
warm sector east of the surface front for afternoon severe storm
initiation generally near, east, and south of the I-44 corridor.
However shear will be weak keeping the tornado risk very low but
could see a lower-end severe risk with large hail & damaging wind
gusts as the hazards during Wednesday afternoon into the evening
hours.  Although the severe risk will have lowered, will keep storm
POPs in the forecast for Wednesday night across our southeastern CWA
as the upper wave moves out/east and the surface boundary washes
out.  An upper ridge over the western U.S. starts building in on
Thursday with south winds returning as we transition back into a hot
and dry weather pattern.  Will see widespread 90s for highs Thursday
afternoon.  With the surface moisture sticking around and perhaps
increasing with the south winds will see afternoon heat indices in
the lower triple digits getting close to Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Longwave ridging will maintain the dry & hot muggy conditions on
Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are moving across far
south central Kansas late this afternoon. Additional
thunderstorms are expected to form along a frontal boundary this
evening and overnight. Very warm mid-level temperatures across
west Texas and western Oklahoma may limit thunderstorm develop
and/or coverage, but CAMs are insistent in better thunderstorm
coverage across western parts of Oklahoma this evening. Some of
the thunderstorms may produce strong damaging winds and hail with
MVFR conditions likely (ceilings and visibility). Will mention a
better chance of storms at PNC/SWO/WWR with still a chance at
CSM/OUN/OKC.

A majority of the convection should be east of all TAF sites by
12-14Z Wednesday. An outflow boundary/front may add in additional
thunderstorm develop Wednesday afternoon, mainly across southern
Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  88  70  93 /  30  10  10   0
Hobart OK         69  91  69  97 /  20   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  76  93  73  96 /  20  10  20   0
Gage OK           63  87  63  94 /  30   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     67  86  66  91 /  60  30   0   0
Durant OK         76  92  73  92 /  20  20  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ004>008-010>013-
     018>020-025-026.

TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...06

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