EF2 tornado, Stilwell to Morrow, Oklahoma, March 23, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
900 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered severe thunderstorms continue across portions of eastern
Oklahoma, mainly east of a Miami to McAlester line.  The dryline has
stalled near a KBVO TO KSNL line with a cold front lurking to the
west across central Oklahoma. The front will begin to surge into
the area this evening and is expected to catch up with the line of
thunderstorms around 11 pm. This will allow the thunderstorms to
become more linear in nature. Expect the severe threat to end around
midnight with some lingering showers and thunderstorms continuing into
the overnight hours.

Will allow the Red Flag Warning to expire at 9 pm and will continue
the wind advisory until 1 am. Will continue to make adjustments to the
grids for tonight as the event wears on.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for
     OKZ054>059-061>063-068-069.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for OKZ054>071-073.

AR...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for ARZ001-010.

&&

SHORT TERM...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
453 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
453 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONGOING NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES THIS EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 7 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 75.
	ONSET...AFTER 6 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...WEST OF A LINE FROM CRAIG TO MCINTOSH COUNTIES.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.

DISCUSSION...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 75 CORRIDOR
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  EXTREMELY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY AGGRESSIVE
WILDFIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM TULSA TO MCALESTER.  SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
WIND SHEAR ARE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
AS STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  FURTHERMORE...
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL POSE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES
HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR A WIDESPREAD OR
PROLONGED TORNADIC THREAT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
AS THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
855 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

OKZ058-240230-
OTTAWA OK-
855 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTY UNTIL
930 PM CDT...

AT 854 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF
FAIRLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
FAIRLAND...                       WYANDOTTE...
PEORIA...                         TWIN BRIDGES STATE PARK...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 322 AND 324.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3674 9462 3666 9474 3667 9476 3673 9490
      3700 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 224DEG 40KT 3673 9476

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
946 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     HAIL             2 N WAGONER             35.99N 95.37W
03/23/2016  E1.50 INCH       WAGONER            OK   PUBLIC

            SILVER DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AT WHITE HORN COVE, NORTH OF
            WAGONER

&&

AEJ