EF0 tornado, Hennessey, Oklahoma, May 19, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
211 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES REQUIRED IN THE PACKAGE TODAY... AND WILL ISSUE
ZONES EARLY AS ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT HAS SET UP
FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FROM
THE MORNING CONVECTION. WINDS ARE VEERING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INDICATING THE DRYLINE IS TRYING TO SET UP
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF A KCSM TO KFDR LINE. SATELLITE HAS
SHOWN TOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA-TEXAS
PANHANDLE STATE LINE WITH LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES DEVELOPING NEAR THE
ANTELOPE HILLS. EXPECT STORMS TO INITIATE SOON WITH DEVELOPMENT
RELATIVELY QUICKLY INTO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BACKED WINDS AND
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A ENHANCED TORNADO RISK. STORMS WILL LINGER INTO
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TOMORROW. A DRIER PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... ALTHOUGH
SOME NEW MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW MAY
MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA LATER IN THE EXTENDED WHICH MAY GIVE SOME
STORM CHANCES. WILL MONITOR THAT POSSIBILITY AS WE GO FORWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  80  59  87 /  60  30  10   0
HOBART OK         59  82  56  88 /  30  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  87  64  91 /  40  20  10   0
GAGE OK           54  76  49  87 /  30  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     57  74  54  82 /  70  30  10   0
DURANT OK         68  83  66  88 /  70  40  40   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>013-015-
     017>020.

TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1140 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE HIGH
RISK INCLUDES THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN-TWO THIRDS OKLAHOMA. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MOST DANGEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EAST OF A LINE FROM
STILLWATER...TO WATONGA...TO ANADARKO...TO TISHOMINGO.

TIMING...
ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 5 AM...THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE DAMAGING HAIL WILL BE FROM
2 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
STRONG TORNADOES...
LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCH DIAMETER...
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS SHOULD ALSO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... REVIEW SAFETY
PLANS AND BE PREPARED TO ACT IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES.

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PLAN
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM 2 PM UNTIL 5 AM.

DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. A WARM FRONT...
LOCATED ALONG INTERSTATE 40 ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
THEN SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH... AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE SOUTH OF THIS WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE A
DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS STORMS
WILL ALSO BE LOCATED ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE... ESPECIALLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY NEAR THE DRYLINE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TORNADOES... ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM
FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS... ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS TODAY WILL GENERALLY MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST AT AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH... WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
MOVING EAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH.

CONTINUE TO CHECK WEATHER INFORMATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES. ALSO REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLAN BEFORE
THE SEVERE STORMS STRIKE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MAY 20.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
SEE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE FROM
STILLWATER TO SHAWNEE TO SULPHUR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING BY SUNRISE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. A MESOSCALE
SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DEFINE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS
AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED IMPACTS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE AT 5 AM
THURSDAY MORNING.

26/30/16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             3 S CAMARGO             35.97N 99.29W
05/19/2010  E1.75 INCH       DEWEY              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT FROM VORTEX2

&&

RILEY

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
507 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     HAIL             4 N EAGLE CITY          35.99N 98.58W
05/19/2010  E3.25 INCH       BLAINE             OK   STORM CHASER

&&

AG