EF0 tornado, Pawhuska, Oklahoma, April 24, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
205 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WITHIN THE
SUB-TROPICAL JET REGIME.  SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR 30 KNOTS IN THE 0 TO 1 KM LAYER WILL SUPPORT
A TORNADO THREAT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
240 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
240 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS .
	ONSET...AFTER 2 PM .

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY SOUTH OF
        INTERSTATE 40.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS .
	ONSET... AFTER 2 PM .

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE DRY LINE EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAD DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA IN AN AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE...RESULTING FROM A SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE EAST AND
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. OTHER ELEVATED STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG CAP IN PLACE THUS FAR HAS
PRECLUDED STORMS FROM BECOMING SURFACE BASED. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...THIS CAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A RESULT OF ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR THE DRY LINE WILL PROGRESS
EAST...AS THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ANY
SURFACE BASED STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ONGOING
STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THAT MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SURFACE BASED
DESPITE BEING WELL REMOVED FROM THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHERE SHEAR AN INSTABILITY ARE MAXIMIZED...ANY STORM THAT BECOMES
SURFACE BASED WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WHICH WILL RESULT
IN STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN TEXAS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ACTIVITY POSSIBLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD ENSURE
THAT STAFF IS PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE DRY LINE
PUSHES INTO THE AREA AND THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE DRY LINE...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD
CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SHOULD PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
152 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

OKZ054-059-241945-
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
152 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN OSAGE AND PAWNEE

AT 150 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NOBLE AND PAYNE COUNTIES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
SHIDLER...FAIRFAX...BURBANK...APPERSON...WEBB CITY...PEARSONIA...
FORAKER...GRAINOLA...PAWNEE...MARAMEC...BLACKBURN...SKEDEE AND
RALSTON.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

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