Tornadoes · United States · North Dakota · 2025
Unrated tornado, Vance, North Dakota, May 15, 2025
This Unrated tornado ran 0.1 miles across Cass County on May 15, 2025, touching down at 3:08 PM CDT and reaching 20 yards wide. It killed nobody.
The rating scale
Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.
EF065 to 85 mph
Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.
EF186 to 110 mph
Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.
EF2111 to 135 mph
Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.
EF3136 to 165 mph
Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.
EF4166 to 200 mph
Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.
EF5over 200 mph
Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.
Unratedthis tornado
The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.
The record
- Rating
- Unrated
- Date
- May 15, 2025
- Touchdown
- 3:08 PM CDT (20:08 UTC)
- Lifted
- 3:09 PM CDT (20:09 UTC)
- On the ground
- 1 minutes
- Path length
- 0.1 miles (0.2 km)
- Path width
- 20 yards (18 m)
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- County
- Cass County
- Touchdown point
- 47.018, -97.236
- Lift-off point
- 47.018, -97.236
- Record number
- 2505151408-01
The damage survey
1 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS FGF, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EFU.
- Video evidence shows a brief, semi-condensed funnel very close to the ground, and some brief ground debris lofted for a few seconds. No damage reported or discernable via satellite.
Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.
What the Weather Service recorded
Severe thunderstorms produced frequent severe wind gusts across portions of west central Minnesota, northwest Minnesota, and eastern North Dakota. Several weak brief tornadoes also occurred.
Video evidence shows a brief, semi-condensed funnel very close to the ground, and some brief ground debris lofted for a few seconds. No damage reported or discernable via satellite.
From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the tornado touched down, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the tornado touched down at May 15, 1:40 PM CDT, 1 hour 28 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, especially south of Highway 2.
- Showers continue on Friday with much cooler temperatures.
- There is a 60 percent chance for at least 1 inch of rain over eastern North Dakota today through Friday. Best chances west of the Red River.
Area forecast discussion, May 15, 1:40 PM CDT, 1 hour 28 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
Issued by National Weather Service Bismarck ND
140 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon,
especially south of Highway 2.
- Showers continue on Friday with much cooler temperatures.
- There is a 60 percent chance for at least 1 inch of rain over
eastern North Dakota today through Friday. Best chances west
of the Red River.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025
...Synopsis...
A strong upper low, and the corresponding shortwave, will traverse the area
today through Friday. This will bring widespread rain chances to eastern North
Dakota, northwest Minnesota, and west-central Minnesota. A few of todays storms
could become severe. Heading into Friday, look for continuing rainfall and much
cooler temperatures. Highs are only expected to reach the 40s and 50s. Cooler
temperatures remain in place this weekend as high temperatures reach the upper
40s Saturday, then climb into the 50s for Sunday. Highs will then be in the 60s
through the first half on next week.
...Severe Storms Possible Today...
H5 upper low continues to approach southeastern North Dakota this afternoon.
Soundings indicate the presence of CAPE values ranging from 1500 J/Kg to 2500 J/Kg.
Low level shear, both in the 0-1km and 0-3km layers looks supportive of low top
supercells or cluster/supercell hybrid mode. As such, the risk for brief tornadoes
and hail up to 1 inch is worth a mention. Additionally, funnels are possible as the
upper low passes through the area.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025
Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue moving through the region today, primarily from south
to north. MVFR to IFR visibility, strong and erratic wind gusts,
and possibly MVFR ceilings can be expected with the strongest
storms today. Later this afternoon into tonight, low ceilings
are forecast to spread across the area from southwest to
northeast, mostly IFR west of KGFK and KFAR, and MVFR elsewhere.
Winds will mostly be out of the southeast to northeast around
10-20 kts through the forecast period, strongest this afternoon.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for
NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for
MNZ001>004-007.
&&
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...ZH/HollanHazardous weather outlook, May 15, 2:16 PM CDT, 52 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND Issued by National Weather Service Bismarck ND 216 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 MNZ004-007-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>029-054-161930- Kittson-West Marshall-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey- Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Western Walsh- 216 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Minnesota, northeast North Dakota, and southeast North Dakota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Friday...A Wind Advisory is in effect from 7 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday. Saturday night...Frost risk. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. MNZ029>032-040-161930- Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant- 216 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Minnesota and west central Minnesota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A Tornado Watch is in effect until 8 PM CDT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Saturday night...Frost risk. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. MNZ015>017-022-023-027-161930- East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-West Becker- 216 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central Minnesota and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight There is a Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Expected hazards include hail up to the size of quarters, wind gusts to 60 mph, and a tornado or two. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Saturday night...Frost risk. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. MNZ005-006-008-009-013-014-161930- Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington- Red Lake- 216 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central Minnesota and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Saturday night...Frost risk. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. MNZ024-028-161930- Hubbard-East Becker- 216 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central Minnesota and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight There is a Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Expected hazards include hail up to the size of quarters, wind gusts to 60 mph, and a tornado or two. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Saturday night...Frost risk. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. MNZ001>003-NDZ030-038-039-049-052-053-161930- West Polk-Norman-Clay-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- 216 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Minnesota, west central Minnesota, and southeast North Dakota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight There is a Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Expected hazards include hail up to the size of quarters, wind gusts to 60 mph, and a tornado or two. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Friday...A Wind Advisory is in effect from 7 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday. Saturday night...Frost risk. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The surface observations
Fargo (FAR), 34 km from the path, in the two hours either side.
| Time (UTC) | Temp (°F) | Dew point (°F) | Wind | Gust (kt) | Pressure (mb) | Weather |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 UTC |
From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 57 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 20:05 UTC.
Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track
Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.
This ground now
The live radar over the trackEvery 2025 tornado in North DakotaEvery tornado in North Dakota since 1950Warnings in force in North Dakota nowThe forecast where you are
The other tornadoes of May 15, 2025
34 more were confirmed in the United States that day.
| Date | Time | Rating | Where | Path (mi) | Width (yd) | Deaths | Injuries | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 1:05 PM CDT | EF0 | Chippewa, MN | 4.0 | 25 | |||
| May 15 | 1:28 PM CDT | EF0 | Swift, MN | 0.5 | 40 | |||
| May 15 | 1:34 PM CDT | EF1 | Swift, MN | 2.7 | 50 | |||
| May 15 | 2:43 PM CDT | EF0 | Stearns, MN | 2.8 | 50 | |||
| May 15 | 3:26 PM CDT | EF2 | Saint Croix, WI | 3.9 | 120 | |||
| May 15 | 4:05 PM CDT | EF0 | Sauk, WI | 0.1 | 20 | $5,000 | ||
| May 15 | 4:28 PM CDT | Unrated | Pembina, ND | 0.1 | 20 | |||
| May 15 | 4:42 PM CDT | Unrated | Columbia, WI | 1.2 | 20 | |||
| May 15 | 4:47 PM CDT | EF1 | Clark, WI | 0.8 | 100 | |||
| May 15 | 4:55 PM CDT | EF0 | Clark, WI | 2.4 | 75 | $1,000 | ||
| May 15 | 5:08 PM CDT | EF1 | Clark, WI | 2.4 | 100 | $45,000 | ||
| May 15 | 5:09 PM CDT | Unrated | Polk, MN | 0.1 | 10 | |||
| May 15 | 5:21 PM CDT | EF2 | Clark, WI | 4.6 | 230 | $725,000 | ||
| May 15 | 5:32 PM CDT | EF1 | Dodge, WI | 6.6 | 100 | $135,000 | ||
| May 15 | 5:38 PM CDT | EF2 | Dodge, WI | 11.5 | 500 | 1 | $2.5 million | |
| May 15 | 5:41 PM CDT | EF0 | Marathon, WI | 2.5 | 65 | |||
| May 15 | 5:48 PM CDT | EF1 | Dodge, WI | 4.2 | 75 | $1.2 million | ||
| May 15 | 5:52 PM CDT | EF0 | Portage, WI | 5.2 | 45 | |||
| May 15 | 5:57 PM CDT | EF2 | Dodge, WI | 8.3 | 300 | $3.4 million | ||
| May 15 | 6:08 PM CDT | EF1 | Dodge, WI | 2.1 | 50 | $10,000 | ||
| May 15 | 6:09 PM CDT | EF1 | Dodge, WI | 1.5 | 50 | $45,000 | ||
| May 15 | 7:22 PM EDT | EF0 | Dare, NC | 0.8 | 100 | |||
| May 15 | 10:24 PM EDT | EF0 | Ottawa, MI | 3.5 | 50 | |||
| May 15 | 10:28 PM EDT | EF1 | Allegan, MI | 5.4 | 175 | |||
| May 15 | 10:41 PM EDT | EF1 | Allegan, MI | 8.3 | 200 | |||
| May 15 | 10:50 PM EDT | EF1 | Barry, MI | 6.8 | 200 | |||
| May 15 | 10:51 PM EDT | EF1 | Kent, MI | 14.9 | 100 | |||
| May 15 | 10:59 PM EDT | EF0 | Kalamazoo, MI | 10.1 | 200 | |||
| May 15 | 11:11 PM EDT | EF0 | Calhoun, MI | 8.5 | 200 | |||
| May 15 | 11:25 PM EDT | EF1 | Eaton, MI | 15.7 | 250 | |||
| May 15 | 12:03 AM EDT | EF1 | Livingston, MI | 1.9 | 230 | |||
| May 15 | 12:05 AM EDT | EF0 | Saginaw, MI | 1.6 | 250 | $150,000 | ||
| May 15 | 12:11 AM EDT | EF0 | Saginaw, MI | 3.4 | 160 | |||
| May 15 | 12:35 AM EDT | EF0 | Genesee, MI | 1.2 | 100 |
What this means
Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.
Sources
NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.