EF0 tornado, Davenport to Carleton, Nebraska, May 6, 2015

1. EF065 to 85 mphthis tornado

   Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

2. EF186 to 110 mph

   Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

3. EF2111 to 135 mph

   Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

4. EF3136 to 165 mph

   Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

5. EF4166 to 200 mph

   Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

6. EF5over 200 mph

   Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

7. Unrated

   The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

Rating

EF0

Date

May 6, 2015

Touchdown

5:26 PM CDT (22:26 UTC)

Lifted

5:30 PM CDT (22:30 UTC)

On the ground

4 minutes

Path length

1.8 miles (2.9 km)

Path width

100 yards (91 m)

Deaths

0

Injuries

0

Property damage

$500,000

County

Thayer County

Touchdown point

40.277, -97.747

Lift-off point

40.298, -97.727

Record number

1505061626-01

2 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS GID, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF0. The highest wind the damage implies is 80 mph.

• overturned pivot 1/2 south of this point.
• train cars rolled off track.

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

Thunderstorms developed early this Wednesday afternoon and evening, and predominantly produced tornadoes and flash flooding. With no cap in place, scattered thunderstorms began developing as early as the noon hour over north central Kansas. Most storms rapidly became supercellular. These supercells rapidly lifted north into south central Nebraska and began producing severe weather by 330 p.m. CDT. Most of the tornadoes occurred over Nuckolls and Thayer counties. One tornado did occur over Adams county and a brief spin-up also occurred over Hall county. Eventually, an MCS developed. The leading edge of the cold pool becoming stationary. New storms repeatedly developed over north central Kansas and lifted northeast along the boundary, through Nuckolls and Thayer counties and further downstream into southeastern Nebraska. Cell training produced a swath of 5-11 inches of rain over portions of Nuckolls and Thayer counties. The highest amount reported was 10.91 inches just west of Hebron. This amount of rainfall in 24 hours typically occurs once in 1,000 years at any given location, or stated another way, has a .1% chance of occurrence in a given 24 hour period. Cooperative observers in Hebron and Superior reported 8.59 and 7.13 inches, respectively. These were the highest 24-hour rainfall amounts ever recorded at these locations, dating back to 1893. Flash flooding damaged roads and some bridges were washed out. U.S. Highways 81 and 136 were closed for a time due to the flooding.||A complex low pressure system extended from the Canadian Prairies into the western United States. These storms developed in the warm sector, far away from any discernible surface boundaries. However, an axis of confluence was present over north central Kansas. A deep upper-level trough was over the western U.S., with a ridge over the East. In the southwest flow between these features, a shortwave trough was lifting through the Central Plains. These storms formed in the southeast quadrant of the associated vorticity maximum. Around the time thunderstorms developed, temperatures were in the lower 70s with dewpoints in the lower 60s, resulting in low cloud bases. Even at mid-afternoon, cloud bases were only 2000-2500 feet. The surface conditions and mid-level lapse rates of 7 degrees C/km resulted in SBCAPE around 1500 J/kg. Deep layer shear was only 25-30 knots. However, low-level wind fields were strong with 40-45 knots at 850 mb. This resulted in large hodographs with 0-1 km SRH values of 200-250 m2/s2, and 0-3 km SRH of 250-300 m2/s2. Combined with low cloud bases, this created a favorable environment for supercells and tornadoes.

This tornado was rated an EF0, with an estimated peak wind speed of 80 MPH. Damage from this tornado included a few overturned train cars west of Carleton and overturned irrigation pivots.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

28 minutes of warning. NWS GID issued a tornado warning for this county at 21:58 UTC, 28 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 22:30 UTC.

The county was under a tornado watch, issued at 18:43 UTC and running to 02:02 UTC.

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Enhanced Risk, with a 0.10 chance of a tornado within 25 miles, in the hatched area where significant tornadoes were expected. The outlook in force was issued at 20:00 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Hebron (HJH), 20 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 60 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 22:26 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

The live radar over the trackEvery 2015 tornado in NebraskaEvery tornado in Nebraska since 1950Warnings in force in Nebraska nowThe forecast where you are

47 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.