EF0 tornado, Phelps County, Missouri, July 9, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
903 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risk for severe weather across most of the area this
  evening and tonight. Primary hazards include damaging winds
  up to 60-70 mph and localized flash flooding. Secondary
  hazards include hail up to quarters and weak tornadoes.

- Flood Watch in effect until 7 AM Saturday. Multiple rounds of
  storms expected this afternoon/tonight, and Friday
  afternoon/tonight may bring localized areas up to 4-7 inches
  of rain.

- Slight Risk for severe weather across the Lake of the Ozarks
  Region Friday. Damaging winds up to 60-70 mph and hail up to
  half dollars are the main risks.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Updated model guidance continues to point toward an increased
QPF/Flash-flood signal over the eastern Ozarks tonight. Slow
storm motions, PWAT values around 2.0 inches (per 00Z SGF RAOB),
ample instability, and upscale storm growth are contributors to
this threat. Increased messaging to show localized amounts up to
4-7 inches per latest REFS Probability Matched Mean 24 QPF,
which actually shows some even higher values.

Uncertainty exists, as with most convective situations, in
location and exact amounts. Those in the eastern Ozarks will
need to monitor for flooding potential and prepare for flooded
riverways and roadways tonight into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Somewhat complex features are splayed around our region today.
An MCV associated with this morning's activity is currently
exiting through east Missouri. A secondary, smaller MCV is just
moving out of NE KS into NW MO. At the surface, an outflow
boundary from residual morning activity is currently oriented NW
to SE from Kansas City, down through Stockton and into south-
central MO. This has been slowly lifting NE as a warm front
through the early afternoon. Elsewhere, a surface low is over
southern KS, which is helping keeping winds more
southerly/southeasterly rather than southwesterly. Cloud debris
from the morning complex has been hanging around the region,
keeping temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across the area.

Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening:

The MCV moving into NW MO and residual outflow/warm front draped
across the area is our focus for new thunderstorm development
and potential severe weather this afternoon. From a conceptual
model mental picture standpoint, synoptic ascent ahead of the
MCV should kickstart storms along the surface boundaries SE of
Kansas City. Indeed, the cumulus clouds around the Kansas City
area is gaining some better texture. When storms form there,
they should move southeast along the warm front/outflow boundary
which is producing an SBCAPE gradient across our area (>3000
J/kg SW of the boundary, and <2000 J/kg NE of the boundary).
Latest CAMs and WoFS output has been slowly gravitating to this
conceptual model with storms developing and moving into our area
around 4-5 PM and lasting through the evening. Our 12Z sounding
depicted decent inverted-V thermo profiles below 700 mb. This,
paired with Theta-E Diffs around 22-25 C, will promote largely a
damaging wind threat with storms that form along this region
(northeast of a Nevada to West Plains line). Added shear from
the MCV influence (0-6 km bulk shear around 30-35 kts), would
promote some line segments as well with enhanced winds up to 70
mph possible.

There is still a secondary weak tornado threat focused along
wherever the warm front/outflow boundary settles this afternoon
and evening. Yesterday's discussion mentioned three things that
needed to happen for the tornado threat to materialize. A) The
MCV enhanced low-level shear and curvature greater than modeled.
Check! Our VAD along with RAP analysis shows 35-40 kts of 0-6
km bulk shear, 20-25 kts of 0-1 km bulk shear, and 30-40 kts of
0-3 km shear. Additionally, it all appears to be curved with
near 100-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH (200-300 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH). B)
Dewpoints needed to be on the upper-end of the percentile
spectrum. Check! Observations across the area depict dewpoints
around 72-77 F. C) Temperatures needed to be cooler than
forecast to inhibit very high dewpoint depressions and LCLs.
Check! Temperatures across the area are in the middle to upper
80s rather than the lower 90s the HRRR had forecasted. This is
keeping LCLs a bit lower. All things together introduces a low-
end weak tornado risk, especially along the warm front/outflow
boundary where added vorticity and surface-based inflow will be
available.

Flood Watch in effect until 7 AM Saturday Morning:

As the night goes on, the nocturnal inversion will settle in
and the LLJ will decouple and increase to 30-40 kts. This will
overlap the warm front/outflow boundary in which storms will
track over during the afternoon. With skinny elevated 1500-2000
J/kg MUCAPE profiles at the nose of the LLJ along with 1.8-2.0
inch PWATs, additional storms are expected to develop across the
eastern Ozarks. Storm motions to the southeast will be parallel
to the initiating boundary, increasing the risk for training
storms. Efficient rainfall paired with a training risk leads to
a flash flooding potential. Therefore, a Flood Watch has been
issued for areas east of Miller to Howell Counties. Even just a
bit of training could result in localized areas of 3-5 inches of
rain within the Watch area. Since storm motions are fast,
flooding risk will be localized to areas that see training of
multiple storms.

These overnight storms are expected to continue through early
Friday morning until the nocturnal LLJ dissipates with daytime
mixing. Dry periods are then expected Friday morning.

Slight Risk for severe storms Friday afternoon and evening:

But wait! The synoptic boundary is still expected to hang around
the area during the day Friday as only weak zonal flow is over
the area. CAMs are actually in pretty good agreement on the
location and timing of another MCV moving through the central
Plains and being over the Kansas City area Friday afternoon.
Lift and enhanced shear ahead of this along the synoptic
boundary will focus redevelopment of storms, potentially severe,
Friday afternoon and evening. This would be focused within the
Lake of the Ozarks region where shear will be better closer to
the MCV. As the environment will not change much, multicell
clusters with damaging winds up to 60-70 mph will be the main
threat, but with a bit better shear forecasted, hail up to half
dollars are also possible.

A flooding risk will also evolve again Friday night with the
LLJ, especially over areas that see the most rain today and
tonight. Therefore, the Flood Watch stays in effect through
Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms and flooding Saturday:

The synoptic boundary will continue to sag southward during the
day Saturday. Once again, little change to the environment will
keep a severe and flooding risk across the area, but focused
mainly across southern Missouri as the boundary moves southward.
That said, exact details will become more apparent with
mesoscale features that develop overnight Friday.

Dry weather returns next week with more seasonable temperatures:

An overturning wave break over the northern CONUS into the
southeast states will bring more seasonable temperatures to the
area to start next week with highs in the middle to upper 80s
and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

In the extended 7-14 day range, the wave break will dip into the
Ozarks, bringing another heat dome to the area. The CPC gives a
50-60% chance of Heat Index values exceeding 105 F at some
point during the July 14-18 timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms (some severe) will continue
into tonight, mainly at KSGF. KBBG and KJLN may also see non-
severe showers and storms, but probabilities are less than 25%
at this time. Expect LLWS at all sites tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ057-058-070-071-
     082-083-097-098-106.

&&

UPDATE...Titus
SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
841 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-110145-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
841 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal tornado risk.
  Slight hail risk.
  Marginal thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

There is a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms this
evening into tonight with damaging winds up to 60 to 70 mph as
the primary threat, and hail up to the size of quarters and weak
tornadoes as the secondary threats.

There is a Slight (2 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall and
localized flash flooding tonight as some rainfall amounts could
reach 4 to 7 inches over the eastern Ozarks.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms
Friday afternoon and evening, especially over the Lake of the
Ozarks region. Damaging winds up to 60 to 70 mph and hail up to
half dollars are the main risk. Heavy rainfall and localized
flooding will also be possible.

A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms and flooding exist south
of Highway 60 Saturday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Titus

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
636 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

MOZ079-080-090-091-100015-
Dallas MO-Polk MO-Greene MO-Webster MO-
636 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER...
SOUTHWESTERN DALLAS...SOUTHEASTERN POLK AND NORTHEASTERN GREENE
COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM CDT...

At 636 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fair Grove, or 9 miles northwest of Strafford, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fair Grove, Pleasant Hope, Olive, Elkland, Ebenezer, Bassville, and
Charity.

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 97 and 98.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southwestern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3732 9331 3747 9332 3753 9295 3730 9295
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 267DEG 20KT 3739 9322

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wise

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
759 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

MOZ056-057-100145-
Miller MO-Morgan MO-
759 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MILLER AND SOUTHERN
MORGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM CDT...

At 758 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Versailles to 8 miles north of Laurie to 6
miles south of Stover. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lake of The Ozarks, Eldon, Versailles, Lake Ozark, Laurie, Sunrise
Beach, Barnett, Gravois Mills, Olean, Bagnell, Lakeside, Rocky Mount,
Etterville, Lakeview, and Aurora Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If on or near LAKE OF THE OZARKS, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3838 9241 3834 9241 3816 9260 3821 9264
      3823 9271 3822 9276 3819 9277 3820 9296
      3821 9293 3823 9296 3819 9301 3822 9299
      3827 9305 3827 9308 3838 9307 3836 9295
      3848 9278
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 296DEG 26KT 3841 9276 3833 9286 3835 9301

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wise

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
915 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

MOZ058-100315-
Maries MO-
915 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MARIES COUNTY THROUGH 1015 PM
CDT...

At 915 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Freeburg to near Vienna to 8 miles north
of Dixon. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Belle, Vienna, Brinktown, and Vichy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
central and east central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3815 9164 3815 9163 3805 9164 3805 9189
      3803 9193 3804 9194 3810 9217 3829 9199
      3829 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 0215Z 292DEG 17KT 3834 9195 3826 9191 3811 9206

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wise