Flash Flood Warning 87, NWS Springfield, MO

015 
WGUS53 KSGF 101356
FFWSGF
MOC125-161-101500-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FF.W.0087.000000T0000Z-260710T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Springfield MO
856 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The National Weather Service in Springfield has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southeastern Maries County in central Missouri...
  Northern Phelps County in east central Missouri...

* Until 1000 AM CDT.

* At 856 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 5 inches of rain 
  have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are 
  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
  to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Rolla, St. James, Doolittle, Northwye, Vichy and Rosati.

This includes the following low water crossings...
  Montogue Creek at Highway E, Montague Creek at County Road 510 and 
  Mill Creek at County Road 521.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Many flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3812 9163 3812 9153 3811 9153 3804 9153
      3800 9153 3797 9153 3796 9153 3794 9153
      3791 9153 3789 9181 3804 9196 3812 9204

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Price

066 
WGUS73 KSGF 101459
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
959 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

MOC125-161-101509-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0087.000000T0000Z-260710T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Maries MO-Phelps MO-
959 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR 
SOUTHEASTERN MARIES AND NORTHERN PHELPS COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended, but residual areal flooding may be 
ongoing. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT Saturday for 
portions of central, east central, and south central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3812 9163 3812 9153 3811 9153 3804 9153
      3800 9153 3797 9153 3796 9153 3794 9153
      3791 9153 3789 9181 3804 9196 3812 9204

$$

Price

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
652 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight Risk for severe weather across most of the area this
  afternoon and evening. Hazards include damaging winds up to
  60-70 mph, hail up to the size of half dollars, and localized
  flash flooding.

- Flood Watch in effect until 7 AM Saturday. Multiple rounds of
  storms may bring localized areas up to 4-7 inches of rain.

- Drier with near-normal temperatures next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Thunderstorms are currently moving through southeastern Missouri
early this morning where they have prompted a few Flash Flood
Warnings and even some continuing Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for
the potential to put down damaging winds. This activity is being
forced at the nose of a low-level jet that is fully cranking away at
around 35 kts. Storm motion is modest, but the favored areas for
development continue to train new thunderstorms over the same areas
that have been experiencing rain for hours already. Precipitable
water is 2"+ in this area, making the training especially efficient.

Besides the flash flooding risk, the severe threat is winding down
with the diurnal thermo and the generally messy storm mode creating
a robust cold pool. A Flood Watch is in effect for areas from
roughly Lake of the Ozarks down to West Plains and east. Rain totals
in this area as of about 2 AM Friday are largely an inch or more
with some areas exceeding 3 inches. Just outside the SGF CWA, Wayne
county has seen over 5 inches of rain in the last 12 hours.

Storms will continue in this area and may develop farther to the
northwest into central Missouri over the next several hours,
dissipating around sunrise. Lows will get down to around 70 degrees
in these areas, with the rest of the CWA only cooling to the mid
70s. Clouds thin a bit through the daytime hours, but some remaining
cloud cover will keep us a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday.
The stationary boundary remains parked just north of the Plateau and
the environment remains largely unchanged from yesterday, making it
no surprise that we are once again in for severe storms today with a
Slight risk (level 2/5) from the SPC for essentially the southern
half of the state.

There will still be plenty of moisture to work with today with
forecast precipitable water values around 1.5-2". As surface
temperatures warm with the heat of the day, this moisture will begin
to converge along the synoptic boundary, and up to 3500 J/Kg of CAPE
will do the rest. Bulk shear looks better this afternoon with longer
hodographs, increasing the hail threat from what we saw today,
potentially up to half-dollar sized hail with the highest cores.

With extremely high surface theta-e, 0-3 km differentials will be
very favorable for damaging winds. The synoptic forcing and deep
layer shear will support the potential for 60-70 mph surface winds,
especially with any linear/bowing segments with a descending
RIJ. Again, this is a similar setup to yesterday with similar
wind hazards.

Storms begin to fire near the center of the MCV (near Omaha) around
midday, with trailing development into central Missouri beginning
around 3-5 PM. The activity will continue into the evening and
overnight, again bringing the risk for flash flooding. The Flood
Watch is currently in effect through Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Precipitation lingers into Saturday as an upper-level shortwave
keeps supporting development. There is currently a Marginal risk
(level 1/5) from the SPC for severe storms Saturday, though a Slight
risk lies against our border to the south. This is a result of the
generally zonal pattern not acting to move the stalled boundary, and
we will see what is hopefully a lower-magnitude echo of Friday's
activity.

Heading into Sunday, precipitation finally comes to an end by midday
as building high pressure to the north finally dislodges the
boundary to the south. Through the rest of the period,
precipitation potential comes in the form of isolated afternoon
summer thunderstorms with less than 20% chance of occurrence.

Broad upper-level ridging begins to build in early next week,
allowing for a slow warming trend of a degree or two per day until
highs return to around 90 by the end of the week. However, longer
term guidance is suggesting the potential for a return to
uncomfortable heat after the next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 642 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Storms will be moving through the area throughout the day today,
but don't become confidently widespread until after 00Z. Covered
the storm chances as well as the potential for resulting
temporarily reduced CIGVIS in both prevailing and PROB30 groups.
Winds start south southwest up to 10-15 kts becoming light and
variable after 00Z (exclusive of thunderstorm wind gusts).

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ057-058-070-071-
     082-083-097-098-106.

&&

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Nelson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
515 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-111015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
515 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive heat risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening with the potential for damaging winds
up to 60 to 70 mph and hail up to the size of half dollars.

There is a Slight (2 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall and
localized flash flooding tonight as well as a Flood Watch in
effect for the eastern Ozarks through Saturday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday with
damaging wind again the main threat. Flash flooding continues to
be possible through Sunday with multiple rounds of precipitation
expected over the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening in
central and southwest Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Nelson