EF1 tornado, Brush Creek to Winnipeg, Missouri, May 27, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1226 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Plenty of instability is already in place as noted by a supercell
that moved across the Missouri and Arkansas line early this
morning. Last night's sounding showed around 3500 J/kg of CAPE
above a strong capping inversion. Hail up to golf balls in size
were reported and the best CAPE values and lapse rates are not
expected until this afternoon.

Surface low pressure moving east over the plains, an approaching
upper level trough, a 30 mph low level jet nosing into the region,
surface dew points in the upper 60s to middle 70s, CAPE values in
excess of 4000 J/kg and steep lapse rates will all contribute to
the potential for a significant severe weather outbreak across the
Ozarks and southeastern Kansas this afternoon and into this
evening.

The amount of instability and expected updraft strengths are
conducive to very large to giant hail production. Current thoughts
are for baseball size or larger hail with the strongest storms.
Thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph and a few tornadoes
will also be possible.

The convection early this morning will likely leave boundaries
across the area, which will potentially act to enhance storms and
rotation this afternoon. Another concern would be the development
of a significant cold pool with this system. It would not be out
of the question that at some point this system develops a
derecho-like nature (squall line with widespread wind damage
potential) that would move across the region, taking advantage of
the instability in place across the area today. Additionally, 0-3
km bulk shear vectors orientated towards the east at 30-40 knots
would support mesovortex tornado potential with any portions of
the line bowing towards the east.

The Moderate Risk area from SPC was expanded to the west this
morning and now includes all of the Missouri Ozarks and
southeastern Kansas through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Some lingering storms will remain across parts of the Mark Twain
National forest region of the Ozarks early Sunday. However, these
storms will be moving to the east as the upper level trough
finally slides through the region.

An upper level ridge will develop along the Rockies which will act
to keep the region in upper level northwesterly flow through the
first part of next week. This will bring fairly nice weather to
the area for Memorial Day. The only fly in the ointment for next
week will be any pieces of energy that will rotate around a
persistent upper low that will remain across the Great Lakes
region for most of next week. Any wave that moves across the
Plains could produce a shower or storm. As a result, scattered
precipitation will be possible Wednesday through the end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Convection has been on the increase the last two hours as the cap
continues to erode across the area. These storms will increase in
coverage and intensity through the afternoon. Expect MVFR
conditions in the vicinity of storms...with the possibility of
strong winds and large hail as well.

Surface front should clear the terminals during the overnight
hours. Once the front clears...winds will veer around to the
northwest and ceilings will drop to MVFR to occasional IFR through
the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Gaede

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
108 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-281815-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
108 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated Tornado risk.
  Significant Hail risk.
  Significant Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated Flooding risk.
  Significant Lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Strong to severe storms will continue to impact the Ozarks
  this afternoon into tonight as very strong instability and
  wind shear develop ahead of a cold front.

  The potential exists for supercell thunderstorms, especially
  early this afternoon into this evening as storms initially
  begin to develop. If these supercells do form, hail up to the
  size of baseballs, damaging winds, and tornadoes will all be
  possible.

  The storms will eventually become more linear in nature and be
  capable of producing widespread damaging wind gusts. Gusts
  over 75 mph will be possible. Tornadoes will also be possible
  with any portions of the line which bow towards the east. This
  has the potential to produce power outages.

  Along with the risk for severe thunderstorms, frequent
  lightning and locally heavy rainfall can be expected. Localized
  flooding of low water crossings will be possible where the
  heavier rainfall occurs. A Flash Flood Watch has been posted
  from this afternoon through 7 AM Sunday. Localized rainfall
  amounts of up to 4 inches will be possible if training storms
  develop.

  Those with outdoor plans this afternoon and tonight are urged
  to pay close attention to the weather and have a plan in place
  to move to a sturdy shelter when severe weather threatens.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

  A few lingering strong to severe storms will impact portions of
  south central Missouri Sunday morning before the system moves
  completely through the region. Large hail and damaging winds
  will be the primary concern.

  The next chance of storms comes towards the end of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed in the next three hours for
  across the entire area.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Gaede

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