EF0 tornado, Lowry City, Missouri, January 7, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
542 AM CST MON JAN 7 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

A RATHER ACTIVE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS A
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SEVERAL
FORECAST PROBLEMS OF THE DAY TO SAY THE LEAST. THE BIGGEST
FORECAST FOCUS WAS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AM ALSO CONCERNED WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AS AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS FOR EARLY JANUARY HAS
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE OZARKS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NO PICNIC
EITHER AS OUR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES COME TO AN END WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

IN THE LARGER SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OUT INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOUR. SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL ALSO
RIDE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHARPEN UP FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE REGION ON UP TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT
SEVERAL RIPPLES OR WEAK SURFACE LOWS TO RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AS THE PARADE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMMENCE. THIS ZONE WILL BE
ONE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION INTO TUESDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE
ALSO HITTING THE QPF ALONG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. THIS ALSO SEEMS TO CORRESPOND
WITH A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS/MOISTURE FLUX ZONE.

AT THIS TIME...AM HAVING A HARD TIME BELIEVING THE QPF AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION MODELS ARE PROGGING LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. DO NOT DENY THERE
WILL BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM AS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. MAY
ALSO SEE ACTIVITY COMMENCE UP ALONG THAT FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN BETWEEN THESE AREAS...NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT OTHER ACTIVITY WILL GO AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE WEAKLY CAPPED. ONE THING IS FOR SURE...THOSE SOUTH WINDS WILL
BE UP AGAIN TODAY. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE A GOOD BET EVERYWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 40 MPH NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

REALLY BELIEVE THAT THE BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS BOOST IN LARGER SCALE ASCENT SHOULD
REALLY GET THINGS GOING ALONG THE FRONT UP NORTH...AND PERHAPS
ALSO ALONG THAT AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS FRONT WILL
THEN BEGIN ITS MARCH TO THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PULLS NORTHEAST ALONG WITH WHAT SHOULD BE A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW. BY THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME...THIS FRONT SHOULD
BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION MECHANISM. WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EXPECTED
TO THE FRONT AND CONVERGENCE ZONE...AT LEAST INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...A THREAT EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS THREAT MAY ALSO
BE ENHANCED OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FROM BOTH
OF THESE FEATURES. AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT IN ANY
ONE AREA RECEIVING FLOODING RAINFALL...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
KIND OF FLOOD WATCH. WILL BE HITTING THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THEN THERE IS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO COME WITH THAT MAIN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TONIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE A MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STRONG
SHEAR PROFILES. AS THAT SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES THIS
EVENING...AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED AS THE MID LEVELS
COOL. MEAN LAYER CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 600 TO 1000 J/KG APPEAR
REASONABLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. STILL
LOOKING AT 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF GREATER THAN 60 KNOTS.
HODOGRAPHS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS WITH DECENT TURNING
IN THE LOWEST THREE KILOMETERS. BULK SHEAR IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER
ALONE WILL EXCEED 30 KNOTS.

THINK THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE
TRUE UP CLOSER TO THE FRONT WHERE STORMS MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED. CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES. IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE AN
ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT SOUTH AND WEST OF A NEVADA TO LEBANON TO
WEST PLAINS LINE AS GREATER INSTABILITY MAY BETTER BALANCE THE
STRONG SHEAR. LCL HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO BE RATHER LOW.

WILL THEN NEED TO WATCH THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SWEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT COLD FRONT ACCELERATES SOUTHEAST. STILL
NOT RULING OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE PULLS THROUGH THE AREA. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING AN END TO OUR VERY MILD TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 40S.

AFTER A COOL TUESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN PROGGING STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS ENERGY
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REFLECT AT LEAST SOME FORM OF A SURFACE
LOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY BE MOISTURE STARVED. STILL LOOKS
STRONG ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME CHANCE POPS BY THURSDAY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AT BOTH TAF SITES.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AT KSGF THIS MORNING AS DEEPER
GULF MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY VFR AT KJLN. VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 21Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 06Z AS
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

ANGLE

&&

.CLIMATE...

MONDAY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR

SPRINGFIELD 75 1965
JOPLIN 73 1965
WEST PLAINS 74 1965
VICHY ROLLA 76 1965

MONDAY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND YEAR

SPRINGFIELD 60 1907
JOPLIN 50 1965
WEST PLAINS 47 1965
VICHY ROLLA 53 1965

ANGLE/SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-081900-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
100 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
  PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS COULD
  DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
  ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI. MORE
  NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
  ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEVADA TO CAMDENTON LINE AS A COLD
  FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND WIND
  SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
  STORMS. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
  WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS THIS AFTERNOON.

  A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
  TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
  ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
  OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
  MISSOURI AND QUICKLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST. BY TONIGHT...
  INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A GREATER THREAT
  FOR STORMS CONTAINING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR LARGER
  AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
  POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A NEVADA TO FORT
  LEONARD WOOD TO WEST PLAINS LINE.

  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
  CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS RICH MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
  STREAM NORTH INTO THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL
  BE INCREASED OVER ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
  THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
  THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
  STRONG COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
  THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD INCREASE ON TUESDAY ACROSS
  SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI IF THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWER TO MOVE
  OUT OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BY 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR
 COMMUNITIES WEST OF A LINE FROM NEVADA TO CASSVILLE. THE THREAT
 WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS
 WEST OF A LINE FROM WARSAW TO SPRINGFIELD TO REEDS SPRING BY 6 PM
 THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB