Tornadoes · United States · Mississippi · 2020

EF2 tornado, Burns to Lemon, Mississippi, February 5, 2020

From Burns to Lemon, this EF2 tornado ran 2.6 miles across Smith County on February 5, 2020, touching down at 3:20 PM CST and reaching 440 yards wide. It killed nobody, and did $20,000 of property damage.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mph

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mphthis tornado

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF2
Date
February 5, 2020
Touchdown
3:20 PM CST (21:20 UTC)
Lifted
3:24 PM CST (21:24 UTC)
On the ground
4 minutes
Path length
2.6 miles (4.2 km)
Path width
440 yards (402 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$20,000
County
Smith County
Touchdown point
32.091, -89.536
Lift-off point
32.117, -89.504
Record number
2002051520-01

The damage survey

27 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS JAN, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF2. The highest wind the damage implies is 115 mph.

  • Numerous trees snapped and uprooted, per drone imagery.
  • Several dead trees snapped, via drone imagery
  • Numerous mainly dead trees snapped and uprooted, via drone footage
  • Multiple snapped and uprooted trees, via drone footage

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

What the Weather Service recorded

A strong cold front moved through the region. Ahead of this, storms developed across Central Mississippi and produced tornadoes and wind damage.

The tornado starting point was confirmed by drone footage just west of Bienville National Forest Road 527. It moved northeast, snapping and uprooting multiple trees in a convergent pattern as it crossed this road. Tree damage ramped up considerably just east of this location, with more considerable tree fall as the tornado crossed Bienville National Forest Road 527-D, including a high percentage of snapped softwood trees and a few snapped hardwoods. In a previously-cleared forest area to the north of this road, nearly all of the dead trees that had remained standing were snapped within and along the tornado path. The road was blocked by numerous downed trees. Footage from a drone showed a well-defined vortex pattern in the fallen trees in this vicinity. The tornado weakened as it crossed Mississippi Highway 35 north of Shongelo Lake and Smith County Road 120, where just a few trees were uprooted. It uprooted a few more trees along Government Road, including one that blocked the roadway, before lifting. Max sustained winds were 115 mph.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

25 minutes of warning. NWS JAN issued a tornado warning for this county at 20:55 UTC, 25 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 21:39 UTC.

The county was under a tornado watch, issued at 17:50 UTC and running to 23:50 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
17:50 UTC23:50 UTCTornado WatchJAN
19:30 UTC01:30 UTCFlash Flood WarningJAN
20:55 UTC21:39 UTCTornado WarningJAN
21:02 UTC21:38 UTCTornado WarningJAN
21:33 UTC21:50 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningJAN
23:50 UTC06:00 UTCTornado WatchJAN
03:58 UTC04:45 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningJAN
04:33 UTC05:15 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningJAN
04:56 UTC04:58 UTCTornado WarningJAN

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Slight Risk, with a 0.05 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 20:00 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the tornado touched down, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the tornado touched down at Feb 5, 11:43 AM CST, 3 hours 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 5, 11:43 AM CST, 3 hours 37 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1143 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
A mix of flight conditions will exist throughout today as a
frontal boundary and severe weather affects the region. The front
has already passed through GLH and GWO so that winds are from the
north- northwest now. As the front passes through this afternoon,
southerly winds at the rest of the TAF sites will rotate to a
northerly direction as well. Expect ceilings to drop universally
throughout the afternoon to IFR as scattered to numerous storms
ramp up and move across the region from southwest to northeast.
The severe storms will wane by 06Z with showers lingering through
much of Thursday. This will keep ceilings and visibilities low
through at least 18Z tomorrow. /10/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An active weather day is on tap today & will bring severe weather
& flash flooding potential across the region. Severe weather,
including tornadoes & some possibly strong, is likely & some flash
flooding is possible.

Wednesday: This morning the mid-level ridge axis is centered over
the Caribbean Islands, leading to a an influx of sufficient low-
level southerly return flow of warmth & moisture. Surface analysis
this morning indicates a surface low & baroclinic zone across the
ArklaMiss Delta, ArkLaTex to mid-South & will only deepen through
the afternoon, while cooler conditions exist in the wake of the
boundary in the northwest Delta. The synoptic pattern consists of
a longwave amplification with the spoke of energy & jet streak
energy through southern Plains & northern Mexico. This will
continue to swing out along the base of the trough & eject
northeast across the ArkLaMiss region. In conjunction with low-
level deepening & surface cyclogenesis, strong reflection in the
low-level wind field response will occur. Morning sounding
analysis shows near the high end or climatological maximum in low-
level observed destabilization (i.e. LCH surface based CAPE ~2500
J/kg & JAN surface/mix-layer CAPE around 800-1000 J/kg). This
juxtaposition of steep mid-level lapse rates & strong mid-deep
layer shear (i.e. 6.5 deg C/km lapse rates @ 700-500mb & 40-70kts+
effective bulk shear @ 0-3km & 0-6km, respectively) continue to
support higher end severe weather potential.

This low-level feed of high Theta E is leading convection
development across areas in south-central to western Louisiana is
serving as the impetus for convective development. This will
continue to spread to the east-northeast across the region, with
hi-res CAM guidance indicative of storms along the northern
gradient of the significant tornado parameter gradient (STP).
Local HRRR guidance is definitely showing the potential for some
1500-2000+ J/kg surface based CAPE along & southeast of that
frontal & baroclinic zone & storms potentially riding along &
southeast of that boundary. SPC mesoanalysis & forecast indicate
nearly 2-3 STP along the Natchez Trace Corridor & especially from
near Winnsboro up towards Columbus & to the south. This area also
has pressure falls of 3-6mb as the surface low deepens. Hi-res
CAM guidance continues to paint area in this vicinity with the
highest potential for tornadoes, including some possibly strong.
Exact storm mode may be somewhat of a question, per some other
local CAM guidance, but there will be some potential for higher-end
severe weather. This environment is anomalously destabilized &
sheared. In conjunction with SPC, introduced an "Enhanced" severe
risk area from near Vicksburg to the Jackson Metro & to the
northeast to including near Grenada to the Golden Triangle. For
now, all modes of severe weather are possible. Due to the strong
clockwise curving hodographs, tornadoes are likely & some possibly
strong. Damaging winds up to 70mph & large hail of up to golf
ball size are also possible. These will be reflected in the
HWO/graphics.

In addition, the flash flooding potential remains across the area
as there will be high moisture in conjunction with a deepening
synoptic jet, upper diffluence along the low & also any convective
potential. In conjunction with anomalous deep layer moisture &
very wet antecedent conditions, especially from any heavy rain
this morning, will keep potential around. Due to that, rainfall
of 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts, is possible across the
region. Local hi-res CAM guidance & HREF suite continues to
support this. No flash flood watch is needed for now as this
mesoscale driven & some details are not as clear. Kept the
HWO/graphics the same as before.

Lastly, due to a strong developing pressure gradient some gusts
upward of 25-30mph can't be ruled out. Expect these winds to really
ramp up into the afternoon as the surface low rapidly deepens &
moves through the Delta. For now, winds don't seem to ramp up
enough for a wind advisory or mention in the HWO/graphics. /DC/

Prior discussion below:

Today and tonight: Severe storms including locally heavy rain will
be possible across our CWA generally this afternoon and evening.
Early morning surface analysis had a stalled front across our Delta
region nearly along a line from Grenada, Mississippi to Bastrop,
Louisiana. This stalled front will move little today and the
greatest potential for severe weather will be along and south of
this boundary. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed
the circulation around a deep upper level trough that extended
southwest from the Central Plains to the Baja region. This upper
trough will shift east through tonight and help develop a surface
low over Louisiana this morning that will track to the northeast
along the stalled boundary. The surface low will shift northeast of
our CWA this evening and drag the trailing cold front across our
southeast most zones well before sunrise. The warm sector ahead of
the surface low will feature PWATs greater than an inch and a half
with mid 60 dew points. MLCAPE values are expected to be 500-
1000j/kg while deep layer shear increases this afternoon into the
evening to support storm organization. There will be the potential
for severe storms capable of damaging winds a few tornadoes. Mid
level lapse rates look to limit large hail development but hail to
the size of quarters will also be possible. In addition, locally
heavy rainfall will accompany the storms and may result in some
flash flooding where the storms can train over the same area. Hi-res
models suggest the heaviest rainfall amounts will fall over our
northeast this afternoon and southeast this evening. Temperatures
will continue much warmer than normal today but the cooler air in
the wake of the cold front will knock temperatures down closer to
normal by morning, especially over the northwest half of the CWA.
/22/

Thursday through next Tuesday: Chances for rain will continue
Thursday into Thursday evening behind the cold front as cold
advection continues. Highs Thursday will range from the mid 40s
west to the mid 50s east. Expect a brief period of dry weather and
seasonable temperatures Friday and Friday night, with showers
returning Saturday as another system quickly moves into the
region. Another short period of dry weather will return Sunday as
high pressure influences the region. Unsettled weather returns to
the region Monday and Tuesday, along with continued warming as
another frontal system approaches the region. Highs by Tuesday
look to range from the lower 60s northwest to the lower 70s
southeast. /27/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  46  50  33 /  86  92  64   6
Meridian      72  52  55  34 /  89  95  77  11
Vicksburg     72  45  48  35 /  92  73  49   1
Hattiesburg   74  53  56  34 /  86  94  78   7
Natchez       73  44  48  33 /  93  76  51   1
Greenville    65  41  44  33 /  93  69  48   4
Greenwood     67  42  47  33 /  94  76  62  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 5, 10:59 AM CST, 4 hours 21 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1059 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-MSZ018-061700-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-Bolivar-
1059 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Remainder of today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Remainder of today

Remainder of today through tonight, isolated severe thunderstorms
are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind
gusts and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Remainder of today, localized flash flooding is possible,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Heavy rainfall of one
to three inches with locally higher amounts is possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of
today through tonight.

LAZ008-015-MSZ019-034-061700-
West Carroll-Richland-Sunflower-Washington-
1059 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Remainder of today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Remainder of today

Remainder of today through tonight, severe thunderstorms and
tornadoes are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging
winds to 60 mph and hail at least to the size of quarter to golf
ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Remainder of today, localized flash flooding is possible,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Heavy rainfall of one
to three inches with locally higher amounts is possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of
today through tonight.

LAZ025-MSZ027>033-035>039-041>050-053-054-059-061700-
Tensas-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-
Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Claiborne-Copiah-
Jefferson-
1059 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
northeast Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Remainder of today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Remainder of today through Tonight

Remainder of today through tonight, severe thunderstorms are
likely and tornadoes are possible, with some possibly strong.
Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to 70 mph and
large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Remainder of today through tonight, localized flash flooding is
possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. Heavy
rainfall of one to three inches with locally higher amounts is
possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of
today through tonight.

LAZ009-016-023-024-026-MSZ025-026-040-051-052-055>058-060>066-
072>074-061700-
East Carroll-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Concordia-Leflore-
Grenada-Issaquena-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-
Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
1059 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and
south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Remainder of today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Remainder of today through Tonight

Remainder of today through tonight, severe thunderstorms and
tornadoes are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging
winds to 60 mph and hail at least to the size of quarter to golf
ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Remainder of today through tonight, localized flash flooding is
possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. Heavy
rainfall of one to three inches with locally higher amounts is
possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of
today through tonight.

23

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Feb 5, 1:53 PM CST, 1 hour 27 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
153 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

MSZ054-055-062-063-052030-
Lawrence MS-Copiah MS-Lincoln MS-Simpson MS-
153 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN SIMPSON...
NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN...NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE AND EASTERN COPIAH
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CST...

At 153 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Wesson, or 8 miles northeast of Brookhaven, moving northeast at
45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Rockport and Oma around 210 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Beauregard and
Georgetown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for central and
south central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3157 9037 3166 9049 3197 9027 3177 8997
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 227DEG 39KT 3169 9037

NF
Special weather statement, Feb 5, 2:02 PM CST, 1 hour 18 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
202 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

ARZ075-MSZ034-052030-
Chicot AR-Washington MS-
202 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CHICOT AND CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CST...

At 202 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Glen Allan, or 8 miles south of Avon, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Avon around 210 PM CST.
  Hollandale and Wayside around 215 PM CST.
  Estill around 220 PM CST.
  Darlove around 225 PM CST.
  Tribbett around 230 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Arcola.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for central and
west central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3327 9076 3327 9072 3326 9073 3323 9073
      3321 9071 3310 9090 3310 9091 3309 9092
      3301 9104 3301 9114 3312 9124 3351 9076
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 230DEG 49KT 3311 9110

GRG
Local storm report, Feb 5, 2:12 PM CST, 1 hour 8 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
212 PM CST WED FEB 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 PM     HAIL             2 SSW CHICKASAW         32.94N 91.35W
02/05/2020  E1.00 INCH       WEST CARROLL       LA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR TERRY, LA.

&&

JNE
Special weather statement, Feb 5, 2:43 PM CST, 37 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
243 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

LAZ009-016-MSZ040>042-047-052115-
Madison LA-East Carroll LA-Sharkey MS-Warren MS-Yazoo MS-
Issaquena MS-
243 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN EAST CARROLL AND
NORTHEASTERN MADISON PARISHES...NORTHWESTERN WARREN...WEST CENTRAL
YAZOO...SOUTHERN ISSAQUENA AND SOUTHERN SHARKEY COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
CST...

At 242 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Mansford, or 7 miles northeast of Tallulah, moving northeast at
55 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Valley Park around 300 PM CST.
  Holly Bluff around 315 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Richmond.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for northeastern
Louisiana...and central and west central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3227 9123 3246 9126 3290 9072 3269 9052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 231DEG 49KT 3248 9109

GRG
Local storm report, Feb 5, 3:09 PM CST, 11 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
309 PM CST WED FEB 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0151 PM     HAIL             WESSON                  31.70N 90.40W
02/05/2020  E1.00 INCH       COPIAH             MS   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN
            WESSON.

&&

TW
Local storm report, Feb 5, 3:13 PM CST, 7 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
313 PM CST WED FEB 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     TORNADO          4 ENE MARTINVILLE       31.99N 89.69W
02/05/2020                   SIMPSON            MS   STORM CHASER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG HWY 540,
            STORM CHASER ALSO HAD VISUAL CONFIRMATION OF
            TORNADO.

&&

TW

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Jackson, MS (KJAN), 12:00Z

9.3 hours before the tornado, 58 km from the path. February 5, 2020.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2020-02-05Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 788 joules per kilogram, CIN -6, lifted condensation level 590 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2020-02-05The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 172 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 47 knots.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
788 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-6 J/kg
Surface CAPE
691 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
590 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
47 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
172 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
221 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.8
Supercell composite
3.6
0-3 km lapse rate
5.9 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Jackson, MS (KJAN), 00:00Z

2.7 hours after it, 58 km from the path. February 6, 2020.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jackson, MS at 00:00Z on 2020-02-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 847 joules per kilogram, CIN -69, lifted condensation level 592 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Jackson, MS at 00:00Z on 2020-02-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 298 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 66 knots.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
847 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-69 J/kg
Surface CAPE
527 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
592 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
66 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
298 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
390 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.9
Supercell composite
10.5
0-3 km lapse rate
5.6 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The surface observations

Jackson/Thompson (JAN), 58 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

Time (UTC)Temp (°F)Dew point (°F)WindGust (kt)Pressure (mb)Weather
19:20 UTC160° 11 kt191003.4
19:25 UTC170° 11 kt1003.7
19:30 UTC180° 11 kt1003.7
19:35 UTC180° 14 kt1003
19:40 UTC7366180° 12 kt1003
19:45 UTC180° 11 kt1003
19:50 UTC170° 13 kt1003
19:54 UTC7366170° 12 kt201003
19:55 UTC180° 11 kt1003
20:00 UTC170° 10 kt1002.7
20:05 UTC170° 11 kt1002.7
20:10 UTC160° 11 kt1002.7
20:15 UTC170° 11 kt1002.7
20:20 UTC180° 9 kt1002.4
20:25 UTC180° 13 kt1002.4
20:30 UTC160° 11 kt1002.4
20:35 UTC160° 13 kt1002
20:40 UTC160° 13 kt181002
20:43 UTC7466160° 14 kt1001.7
20:45 UTC160° 14 kt1002
20:50 UTC170° 11 kt1001.7
20:54 UTC7366180° 14 kt1002
20:55 UTC180° 13 kt1002
21:00 UTC180° 11 kt1001.7
21:05 UTC170° 11 kt1001.7
21:10 UTC170° 13 kt1001.7
21:15 UTC160° 11 kt1001.7
21:20 UTC170° 13 kt1001.7
21:25 UTC170° 14 kt1001.7
21:30 UTC180° 13 kt1001.4
21:35 UTC180° 14 kt1001.4
21:40 UTC180° 16 kt1001.7
21:45 UTC180° 16 kt1001.7
21:50 UTC180° 14 kt1001.4
21:54 UTC7264180° 13 kt1001.4
21:55 UTC180° 11 kt181001.4
22:00 UTC190° 11 kt1001.7
22:04 UTC7165190° 12 kt181001.4-TSRA
22:05 UTC180° 11 kt1001.4-RA
22:10 UTC190° 10 kt1000.7RA BR
22:12 UTC7166190° 11 kt1001+TSRA BR
22:15 UTC180° 10 kt1001-RA BR
22:17 UTC7166170° 12 kt1000.7-TSRA BR
22:20 UTC170° 13 kt1001-RA BR
22:25 UTC170° 13 kt1001
22:30 UTC170° 11 kt1001
22:35 UTC170° 11 kt1001
22:37 UTC7166170° 13 kt1000.7
22:40 UTC170° 11 kt171000.7
22:45 UTC150° 11 kt1000
22:50 UTC160° 15 kt1000.3
22:54 UTC7066160° 12 kt1000.3
22:55 UTC 11 kt181000.3
23:00 UTC160° 11 kt1000.7
23:04 UTC7066180° 14 kt1001VCTS
23:05 UTC190° 11 kt1001
23:10 UTC200° 9 kt1001
23:15 UTC190° 8 kt1000.7-RA

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 48 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 21:21 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
20:57 UTCTORNADO1 S MartinvilleSimpson, MSAN EF1 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN A PASTURE JUST WEST OF MS 541 WHERE A FEW TREES WERE UPROOTED. VERY MINOR TREE DAMAGE WAS NOTED INITIALLY AS IT CROSSED ROADS AND JUST PAST MS 540. DAMAGE INCREASED AS IT CROSSED COLE RD WH
20:58 UTCTORNADO1 Nne MartinvilleSimpson, MSTREES DOWN AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE MARTINVILLE AREA.
21:03 UTCTORNADO4 Ene MartinvilleSimpson, MSTREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG HWY 540, STORM CHASER ALSO HAD VISUAL CONFIRMATION OF TORNADO.
21:20 UTCTORNADO3 Sse BurnsSmith, MSA BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY 35 WHICH WAS EVIDENT BY THE TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE. AS IT CROSSED THE HIGHWAY, A FEW TREES WERE UPROOTED. A FEW MORE WERE UPROOTED EAST OF THE HIGHWAY, ALONG GOVERNMEN
21:20 UTCTORNADO3 Sse BurnsSmith, MSTHE TORNADO STARTING POINT WAS CONFIRMED BY DRONE FOOTAGE JUST WEST OF BIENVILLE NATIONAL FOREST RD 527. IT MOVED NORTHEAST, SNAPPING AND UPROOTING MULTIPLE TREES IN A CONVERGENT PATTERN AS IT CROSSED THIS ROAD. TREE DAM
21:22 UTCTORNADO3 Se BurnsSmith, MSTREES DOWN ACROSS THE ROAD AT HIGHWAY 35 NORTH AROUND THE SHONGELO COMMUNITY.

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2020 tornado in MississippiEvery tornado in Mississippi since 1950Warnings in force in Mississippi nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of February 5, 2020

15 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
February 52:57 PM CSTEF1Simpson, MS6.2150$200,000
February 53:28 PM CSTEF1Yazoo, MS8.1800$45,000
February 53:57 PM CSTEF2Yazoo, MS18.79004$126,000
February 54:46 PM CSTEF1Attala, MS1.7300$50,000
February 54:58 PM CSTEF2Attala, MS5.8800$255,000
February 55:18 PM CSTEF1Colbert, AL1.360
February 55:33 PM CSTEF1Leake, MS9.1250$55,000
February 55:50 PM CSTEF1Leake, MS4.9150$40,000
February 55:55 PM CSTEF1Lawrence, TN10.1300$20,000
February 55:56 PM CSTEF1Lawrence, TN10.53001$100,000
February 56:47 PM CSTEF0Bedford, TN10.450$10,000
February 57:23 PM CSTEF0Warren, TN6.350$10,000
February 57:55 PM CSTEF1White, TN3.9200$25,000
February 58:02 PM CSTEF1White, TN6.4250$15,000
February 510:51 PM CSTEF2Jasper, MS59.91,320$3.9 million

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.