Tornadoes · United States · Mississippi · 2016

EF1 tornado, Purvis, Mississippi, March 31, 2016

Name: EF1 tornado, Purvis, Mississippi, March 31, 2016
Start: 2016-03-31T12:53:00.000Z
End: 2016-03-31T12:55:00.000Z
Location: Purvis, Mississippi

This EF1 tornado ran 1.4 miles across Lamar County on March 31, 2016, touching down at 7:53 AM CDT and reaching 50 yards wide. It killed nobody, and did $70,000 of property damage.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

EF065 to 85 mph
Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.
EF186 to 110 mphthis tornado
Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.
EF2111 to 135 mph
Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.
EF3136 to 165 mph
Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.
EF4166 to 200 mph
Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.
EF5over 200 mph
Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.
Unrated
The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating: EF1
Date: March 31, 2016
Touchdown: 7:53 AM CDT (12:53 UTC)
Lifted: 7:55 AM CDT (12:55 UTC)
On the ground: 2 minutes
Path length: 1.4 miles (2.3 km)
Path width: 50 yards (46 m)
Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $70,000
County: Lamar County
Touchdown point: 31.138, -89.419
Lift-off point: 31.142, -89.395
Record number: 1603310653-01

The damage survey

6 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS JAN, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF1. The highest wind the damage implies is 95 mph.

Large tree fell on roof of houise.
Few hardwood and softwood trees snapped. Roof damage to a home.
Roof damage to a metal roof. Few trees snapped and uprooted.
Few trees uprooted. Few shingles off of roof of house.

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

What the Weather Service recorded

Widespread severe weather and some flash flooding occurred over the ArkLaMiss region from the evening of March 30th through the evening of March 31st. On March 30th an upper level storm system moved into the region from the Southern Plains. It was accompanied by a slow moving cold front extending from a large surface low across the Central Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley.||A warm moisture rich air mass from the Gulf of Mexico moved into the region as a warm front lifted northward on the 30th. A series of potent upper level disturbances crossed the region through the 31st, bringing a rapid increase in wind aloft and resulting in an unstable environment that contained high levels of wind shear. These factors set the stage for flash flooding and several rounds of severe weather. Widespread severe weather occurred with a mix of damaging winds, up to golf ball sized hail, and two EF-1 tornadoes that occurred in Lamar and Lowndes counties. Parts of the Delta region experienced flash flooding, especially in Washington, Sunflower, Leflore, Carroll, and Montgomery counties. Fifteen homes had to be evacuated at Moorhead in Sunflower County. There were flooding issues on many primary and secondary roads. There was also additional river flooding from this system.||The cold front moved across the region on night of the 31st, thus ending the severe weather from the northwest.

This tornado touched down near Talowah Rd where it uprooted a couple of trees and caused some minor roof damage to a home. The tornado continued east northeast uprooting a few trees and causing roof damage to an elementary school. The tornado continued east northeast across Mitchell Ave where a tree fell on a house. The tornado ended near Stonefield Drive snapping a few more trees and causing roof damage to a home. The maximum estimated winds were 95 mph.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

0 minutes of warning. NWS JAN issued a tornado warning for this county at 12:53 UTC, 0 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 13:11 UTC.

The county was under a tornado watch, issued at 08:27 UTC and running to 13:51 UTC.

Issued (UTC)	Expired	Product	Office
08:27 UTC	13:51 UTC	Tornado Watch	JAN
09:00 UTC	09:26 UTC	Flash Flood Watch	JAN
12:26 UTC	13:15 UTC	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN
12:53 UTC	13:11 UTC	Tornado Warning	JAN
13:13 UTC	15:15 UTC	Flash Flood Warning	JAN

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Slight Risk, with a 0.05 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 06:02 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the tornado touched down, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the tornado touched down at Mar 31, 5:43 AM CDT, 2 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 31, 5:43 AM CDT, 2 hours 10 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
543 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...TO INCLUDE AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THROUGH 14Z
AS SCT-NUMEROUS TSRA MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER 14Z A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
TSRA/SHRA OCCUR FROM AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH 50 KT WIND GUSTS...LARGE
HAIL...AND TORNADOES. MVFR/IFR CONDS WL LIKELY PREVAIL WITH THE
CONVECTION INTO FRIDAY MORNING. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/

..ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING EXPECTED LATER TODAY...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY AS OF CURRENT
WRITING IS SUB-SEVERE BUT PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME
GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR...ANOTHER TORNADO
WATCH FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN ISSUED. ALL
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO EXIT EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
DURING THE MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 7 AND 10AM. THERE WILL BE A SHORT
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME PRIME YET AGAIN FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 130KT
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REORIENT ITSELF WHERE THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
WILL NOSE INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A RATHER
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. AS SOME HEATING CAN OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE AROUND
2000-2500K/KG AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -7 TO -11C. SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS LULL BUT THE PRIMARY
CONVECTION LOOKS TO INITIATE AROUND 18Z ACROSS MY WESTERN
COUNTIES/PARISHES. SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS IT LATER
AROUND 21Z BUT THINK THIS LIKELY TOO LATE.

ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RATHER ROBUST AND THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL BEING GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
SHEAR VALUES ARE LOWER DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
AROUND 50KTS. VERTICAL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 27-31C AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE PUSHING 8C/KM. SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS OF THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR ALSO SHOW SOME POCKETS OF 50KTS 80M WINDS...WHICH
SUGGEST SOLID DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN COUNTIES
BUT THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS FURTHER SOUTH OF I-20. LARGE HAIL
PARAMETERS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH SIZES UP TO 2 INCHES OR LARGER POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION TO THE SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL...THERE IS
ALSO A RISK FOR TORNADOES WITH SOME POTENTIALLY BEING STRONG AGAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. AS SHEAR INCREASES...SO DOES
HELICITY WITH VALUES AROUND 200-300M2/S2 0-1KM AND 200-500M2/S2
0-3KM. IN ADDITION...THE SIG TOR PARAMETER DEPICTS A BULLSEYE ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AROUND 4...WHICH WHEN LOOKING AT THE NORTHERN
GRADIENT THAT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR ACTUAL OCCURRENCE...THIS WOULD
PLACE IT ACROSS AGAIN MY NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALL OF THIS MATCHES WELL
WITH THE DAY 1 SPC OUTLOOK.

IN TERMS OF THE FLOODING RISK...VERY GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER OUR REGION AND IS CONTINUED TO BE IN THE
99TH TO MAX PERCENTILES PER THE NAEFS. THIS WILL LEAD TO PW VALUES
AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES WHICH IS NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AGAIN THE GREATEST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS COUNTIES
NORTH OF I-20. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN TACT BUT FEEL THE BEST
AREA FOR FLOODING AT LEAST FOR TODAY WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND MAY
ADJUST HAZARDS AND GRAPHICS TO REFLECT THIS CONFIDENCE. THROUGH
TONIGHT...AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
OVER WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN THIS MORNING/OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...AROUND AN INCH LOOKS FEASIBLE WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. THE MOST ROBUST STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY AROUND 9-10PM
OR SO BUT THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOME STORMS LINGERING INTO THE
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS MY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND
LINGERING/STALLING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE PINE BELT. GIVEN
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE STILL IN PLACE AS DEPICTED BY
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500J/KG...VERTICAL TOTALS STILL AROUND 28-30C
AND GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF
FRIDAY BEFORE IT COMPLETELY PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. AT THIS POINT IT
IS UNCERTAIN JUST WHERE THIS FRONT WILL LINGER OR HOW FAST OR SLOW
IT MAY GET THROUGH THE CWA. EXPECT SOME POST FRONTAL RAIN TO LINGER
FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER BY
THAT POINT WITH CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY DRYING BY EARLY MORNING
SATURDAY. /28/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COME SATURDAY MORNING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA BUT THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WHILE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS OUR CWA. THE 00Z NAM
GENERATED RAINFALL ACROSS OUR WHOLE CWA WITH THIS SHORTWAVE BUT WAS
AN OUTLIER AS MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINED DRY. WL NOT INTRODUCE POPS
SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT BUT THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
PASS THROUGH AS A DRY FRONT AS WELL. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THEN SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE
EAST. RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE WEDNESDAY AND ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT OVER OUR AREA WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH FRONT BUT RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  59  73  49 /  73  70  42  32
MERIDIAN      78  61  74  49 /  88  73  56  42
VICKSBURG     80  58  71  49 /  84  63  28  23
HATTIESBURG   79  66  72  52 /  86  63  79  60
NATCHEZ       80  61  71  49 /  79  58  51  40
GREENVILLE    78  54  68  46 /  85  53  20  21
GREENWOOD     79  54  71  45 /  86  80  21  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MSZ030>033-037>039-
     043>046-048>066-072>074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>029-
     034>036-040>042-047.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

22/28/22

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 31, 7:34 AM CDT, 19 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
734 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>029-034-011245-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-WASHINGTON-
734 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TORNADOES
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...MAINLY TODAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND STRONG TORNADOES. THE
GREATEST THREAT WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE THREAT
WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE RISK...FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN AS STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME COULD MOVE
OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY IN ADDITION TO WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
ROADS FLOODED AND SOME CLOSURES POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

MSZ030>033-037>039-043>046-011245-
CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-MADISON MS-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
734 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TORNADOES
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND STRONG TORNADOES. THE
GREATEST THREAT WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE THREAT
WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE RISK...FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN AS STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME COULD MOVE
OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY IN ADDITION TO WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

LAZ007>009-MSZ035-036-040>042-011245-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-
734 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TORNADOES
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...MAINLY TODAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND STRONG TORNADOES. THE
GREATEST THREAT WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE THREAT
WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE RISK...FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN AS STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME COULD MOVE
OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY IN ADDITION TO WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ047>066-072>074-011245-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-WARREN-
HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
734 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE RISK...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR AND BRING A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN AND CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS MAY BRING
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE PINE BELT ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

28

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
SIGNIFICANT...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SIGNIFICANT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 31, 6:04 AM CDT, 1 hour 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
604 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GREENWOOD               33.52N 90.19W
03/31/2016                   LEFLORE            MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SIX TO EIGHT INCHES OF WATER ACROSS US HWY 82 NEAR THE
            YAZOO RIVER BRIDGE

&&

DL

Local storm report, Mar 31, 6:11 AM CDT, 1 hour 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
611 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GREENWOOD               33.52N 90.19W
03/31/2016                   LEFLORE            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS STREETS AROUND THE CITY FLOODED INCLUDING THE
            INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 82 AND STRONG AVENUE. ONE HOUSE
            FLOODED ON WILLIAMSON STREET.

&&

MME

Special weather statement, Mar 31, 6:35 AM CDT, 1 hour 18 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
635 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

MSZ063-064-072-073-311215-
MARION MS-LAMAR MS-LAWRENCE MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
635 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LAMAR...
SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE...MARION AND JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTIES THROUGH
715 AM CDT...

AT 634 AM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WALTHALL AND WESTERN MARION COUNTIES...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HATTIESBURG...COLUMBIA...SANDY HOOK...HOLLY SPRINGS...PURVIS...
SUMRALL...BUNKER HILL...PICKWICK...GOSS...MELBA...SOCIETY HILL...OAK
VALE...CARSON...MORGANTOWN...TILTON...BAXTERVILLE...PINEBUR...IMPROVE
AND BASSFIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3107 8984 3108 8992 3113 8994 3113 8996
      3126 9004 3133 9004 3133 9008 3137 9011
      3168 8976 3161 8975 3161 8974 3158 8970
      3154 8960 3151 8959 3144 8959 3143 8953
      3112 8935 3100 8966 3100 8983
TIME...MOT...LOC 1134Z 236DEG 38KT 3133 9008 3108 8994

DL

Local storm report, Mar 31, 7:05 AM CDT, 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
705 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N INDIANOLA           33.46N 90.64W
03/31/2016  M3.96 INCH       SUNFLOWER          MS   COCORAHS

&&

DL

Local storm report, Mar 31, 7:12 AM CDT, 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
712 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 WSW HATTIESBURG       31.29N 89.35W
03/31/2016  E50.00 MPH       LAMAR              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ACROSS I-59 SOUTHBOUND NEAR MILE MARKER 63

&&

DL

Special weather statement, Mar 31, 7:15 AM CDT, 38 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
715 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

MSZ072-073-311300-
MARION MS-LAMAR MS-
715 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LAMAR AND SOUTHERN MARION
COUNTIES THROUGH 800 AM CDT...

AT 715 AM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER PICKWICK...OR NEAR SANDY HOOK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HATTIESBURG...COLUMBIA...SANDY HOOK...PURVIS...SUMRALL...
BAXTERVILLE...PINEBUR AND PICKWICK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3107 8984 3107 8990 3111 8994 3113 8994
      3113 8996 3117 8999 3144 8951 3143 8947
      3141 8945 3135 8945 3135 8941 3126 8935
      3115 8935 3100 8976 3100 8983
TIME...MOT...LOC 1215Z 243DEG 43KT 3110 8986

DL

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), 12:00Z

0.9 hours before the tornado, 103 km from the path. March 31, 2016.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 596 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -54 J/kg
Surface CAPE: 975 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 597 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 45 kt
0-1 km bulk shear: 41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 466 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 554 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.5
Supercell composite: 8.6
0-3 km lapse rate: 5.2 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), 00:00Z

11.1 hours after it, 103 km from the path. April 1, 2016.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.

Hodograph

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1010 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -13 J/kg
Surface CAPE: 2109 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 644 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 58 kt
0-1 km bulk shear: 28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 206 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 181 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.2
Supercell composite: 7.7
0-3 km lapse rate: 5.1 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The surface observations

Hattiesburg Municipal (HBG), 20 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

Time (UTC)	Temp (°F)	Dew point (°F)	Wind	Gust (kt)	Pressure (mb)	Weather
10:53 UTC	70	66	0° 0 kt		1010.2	VCTS -RA
11:00 UTC	69	66	0° 0 kt		1009.8	-TSRA
11:15 UTC	70	66	0° 0 kt		1009.8	VCTS -RA
11:27 UTC	69	66	0° 0 kt		1010.2	-RA
11:34 UTC	69	66	0° 0 kt		1010.2	VCTS RA
11:46 UTC	69	66	10° 4 kt		1009.8	TSRA BR
11:53 UTC	68	66	330° 7 kt		1010.2	TSRA BR
11:58 UTC	69	66	360° 5 kt		1009.5	+TSRA BR
12:13 UTC	69	66	4 kt		1010.2	+RA BR
12:22 UTC	69	66	120° 4 kt		1009.5	VCTS +RA BR
12:35 UTC	69	66	70° 4 kt		1009.5	VCTS -RA
12:51 UTC	69.8	66.2	30° 7 kt		1009.5	+TSRA BR
12:53 UTC	69	66	20° 8 kt		1009.5	+TSRA BR
13:06 UTC	68	67	5 kt		1009.8	+TSRA BR
13:08 UTC	68	67	5 kt		1009.8	+TSRA BR
13:16 UTC	68	67	10° 12 kt		1009.5	+TSRA FG
13:31 UTC	68	67	340° 6 kt		1009.8	-TSRA BR
13:33 UTC	68	67	20° 5 kt		1009.5	-TSRA BR
13:38 UTC	68	67	310° 6 kt		1009.8	-TSRA
13:48 UTC	69.8	66.2	260° 6 kt	19	1009.8
13:53 UTC	70	67	220° 3 kt		1010.2

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)	Report	Where	County	Remark
11:45 UTC	TSTM WND GST 50	3 Wsw Hattiesburg	Lamar, MS	TREE DOWN ACROSS I-59 SOUTHBOUND NEAR MILE MARKER 63
12:53 UTC	TORNADO 1	1 Wsw Purvis	Lamar, MS	THIS TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR TALOWAH RD WHERE IT UPROOTED A COUPLE OF TREES AND CAUSED SOME MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOME. THE TORNADO CONTINUED EAST NORTHEAST UPROOTING A FEW TREES AND CAUSING ROOF DAMAGE TO AN ELEMENTA
12:54 UTC	TSTM WND DMG	Purvis	Lamar, MS	SEVERAL TREES DOWN AT THE UPPER ELEMENTARY SCHOOL. POSSIBLE TORNADO.
12:56 UTC	TSTM WND DMG	2 E Purvis	Lamar, MS	TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN NEAR ALDON ROAD AND STONFIELD DRIVE. POSSIBLE TORNADO.
13:16 UTC	FLASH FLOOD	2 Wnw Hattiesburg	Forrest, MS	MONTAGUE BLVD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING ON THE SOUTHERN MISS CAMPUS
13:17 UTC	FLASH FLOOD	Hattiesburg	Forrest, MS	EIGHT STREETS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING IN THE CITY OF HATTIESBURG
13:32 UTC	TSTM WND DMG	2 W New Augusta	Perry, MS	REPORTS OF NUMEROUS TREES DOWN/UPROOTED ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF US HIGHWAY 98 IN PERRY COUNTY. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR DATA.
13:45 UTC	FLASH FLOOD	2 W Hattiesburg	Forrest, MS	WATER ENTERED A HOME ALONG NAVAJO CIR
14:00 UTC	FLASH FLOOD	1 Sw Hattiesburg	Forrest, MS	FLOODING ON US HWY 49 AT W PINE ST

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the track Every 2016 tornado in Mississippi Every tornado in Mississippi since 1950 Warnings in force in Mississippi now The forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of March 31, 2016

19 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

Date	Time	Rating	Where	Path (mi)	Width (yd)	Damage
March 31	5:55 AM CDT	EF1	Saint Helena Parish, LA	0.2	50
March 31	6:05 AM CDT	EF1	Tangipahoa Parish, LA	4.6	250
March 31	2:02 PM CDT	EF1	Daviess, KY	3.0	250	$100,000
March 31	4:40 PM EDT	EF1	Tippecanoe, IN	0.1	30	$50,000
March 31	4:28 PM CDT	EF1	Hardin, TN	1.5	75	$25,000
March 31	4:31 PM CDT	EF0	Perry, TN	3.5	350	$20,000
March 31	4:45 PM CDT	EF0	Lewis, TN	0.7	50	$5,000
March 31	5:49 PM EDT	EF1	Noble, IN	0.5	30
March 31	5:56 PM EDT	EF1	Wabash, IN	0.7	60
March 31	5:56 PM EDT	EF0	White, IN	3.1	120
March 31	6:18 PM CDT	EF1	Lowndes, MS to AL	7.8	600	$225,000
March 31	7:38 PM EDT	EF0	Grady, GA	0.3	50	$2,000
March 31	6:43 PM CDT	EF1	Pickens, AL	2.9	350
March 31	7:03 PM CDT	EF1	Fayette, AL	3.7	650
March 31	7:27 PM CDT	EF1	Fayette, AL	3.7	500
March 31	8:05 PM CDT	EF0	Fayette, AL	1.9	400
March 31	9:42 PM CDT	EF1	Blount, AL	0.3	275
March 31	9:54 PM CDT	EF2	Morgan, AL	9.6	200
March 31	12:19 AM CDT	EF0	Lee, AL	2.1	50

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.