EF1 tornado, Pilot Grove to Elmore, Minnesota, April 13, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
655 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms expected along a warm front this afternoon
through the evening. Hail is the most likely threat, with secondary
threat of tornadoes in southern/southeast Minnesota.

- Areas of dense fog in the morning, followed by clearing skies
tomorrow with continued warm temperatures.

- Multiple chances for rain showers and weak storms throughout
  the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Eyes are glued to satellite this afternoon as we await convective
initiation within a few hours, with the warm frontal boundary
evident over far southeastern South Dakota through the I-90 corridor
as a secondary boundary has set up farther north associated with the
light showers stretching from central South Dakotas through St.
Cloud. The southern boundary is the warm front associated with an
incoming low pressure system that is expected to be the locus of
severe weather activity later, with the northward extent of the
front one of the key things to watch as this will dictate how far
north the severe weather threat persists. Forecast soundings from
various CAMs showcase extensive low level instability with upwards
of 2500+ J/KG SBCAPE with limited CIN along the warm front but
extensive 100-200 CIN north of it with a lack of low level
winds/shear but extensive 0-6km shear. What this means is elevated
storms capable of producing hail will exist north of the primary
warm frontal boundary, with the warm front the most likely zone for
potential tornadoes as storm interactions and streamwise vorticity
will both be maximized within this zone despite the lackluster low
level shear. The 17z WoFS run has largely favored a southerly
solution for weather potential, keeping the best potential for both
tornadoes and hail confined to the region south of the Twin Cities
metro and favoring an area from roughly Olmsted County in SE MN to
Jackson County in western WI (both covered by NWS La Crosse). The
tornado threat is highly contingent on the dew point depression at
surface level, as the lack of 0-1km shear means we need incredibly
low LCLs below 500ft for the threat to be tangible, which means we
need to be highly saturated below 1000ft otherwise the tornado
threat may not end up being realized. The hail threat is the most
likely overall given the extensive mid level shear and steep lapse
rates, and even with lower level capping elevated storms would be
capable of producing severe hail. The wind threat is largely relying
on precipitation loading/momentum enhancement with limited lower
level flow until the low level jet amplifies, however for our area
this is not realized until later in the evening when the warm front
is already exiting the area to the southeast. Overall, there is
still some higher end hail potential and a tornado threat and we
will have to closely monitor the position of the warm front as well
as overall storm environment over the next few hours. The timing
window looks to be CI from 3-4pm, most intense from 4-9pm across the
area, diminishing quickly as the front moves southeast after 9pm. As
we keep a close eye on the environment over the next few hours, a
Watch seems more likely than not at this point, it is more a
question of if we have the confidence for a Tornado Watch versus a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch given we expect the Tornado threat to be
conditional versus the more likely hail threat.

A few more elevated storms are possible for a few hours after 8-9pm
from cold FROPA with limited potential for severe weather, with
light showers and rumbles of thunder more likely as the environment
quickly shifts towards some patchy dense fog early tomorrow morning
with visibility reductions below 2 miles likely as temperatures drop
back to dew points. This fog persists through the morning commute
before diminishing rapidly after 9-10am, with another day near 70
tomorrow amidst skies clearing out to become mostly sunny by the
afternoon. Another low pressure system developing underneath an
incoming shortwave trough by late Tuesday introduces our next chance
for showers, with the position of the system favoring areas to our
south for severe weather with limited thunderstorm activity north of
the MN/IA border. The low is expected to track from Omaha to
Milwaukee keeping us on the relatively cooler northern side with
showers persisting on and off throughout Wednesday before exiting
early Thursday to the east. There is a non-zero chance for some
isolated severe weather, however the better environment should
remain to our south. Another surface low quickly develops ahead of a
broad trough off the lee side of the Rockies by late Thursday
tracking across the area on Friday bringing further chances for
showers and thunderstorms, with the low becoming broader and
weakening as it approaches. The current favored track would take the
surface low towards northern Lake Superior by early Saturday, which
would wrap in enough cold air from central Canada to introduce snow
or wintry mix chances Friday night into Saturday morning.
Accumulations are uncertain at this point as it will depend heavily
on the track of the system, which is not nailed down just yet as we
have a couple of systems before it arrives to get through. We end
the period into the 2nd half of the weekend with broad high pressure
bringing sunshine and temperatures in the 50s for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Primary focus early in the 00z period is with thunderstorms near
MKT and EAU. A warm front is positioned to the northwest of
these terminals, which has effectively ended the threat of
thunderstorms at the other terminals, so PROB30s & TEMPOs were
removed. Thunderstorms will move out out of southern MN early
this evening. Focus will shift to a round of IFR fog possible at
all area terminals overnight. LAMP guidance remains most
aggressive with visibility reductions across eastern MN/western
WI. Winds turn northwesterly after daybreak and will sustain
between 5-10kts.

KMSP...Main convective show has setup across southern MN.
VFR rain showers will remain possible this evening, but feel
that the threat for strong thunderstorms has decreased. Guidance
continues to point towards a window of IFR fog overnight. VFR
with northwesterly flow tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/SHRA early, then VFR. Wind NE 5kts.
THU...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SE 5-10kts.
FRI...MVFR/SHRA likely, chance -TSRA. Wind SE to SW 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...Strus

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
108 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
140900-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
108 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon and
evening. Some storms may be strong to severe, capable of
producing very large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter, wind
gusts in excess of 70 mph or a few tornadoes across southern
Minnesota through western Wisconsin. Some storms may also produce
heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon
and evening.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
645 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     Hail             Augusta                 44.68N 91.13W
04/13/2026  M1.00 Inch       Eau Claire         WI   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
646 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     Hail             6 S Fairmont            43.57N 94.45W
04/13/2026  M1.00 Inch       Martin             MN   Public

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
647 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     Hail             2 W Amboy               43.89N 94.20W
04/13/2026  M2.50 Inch       Blue Earth         MN   Public

            Report from mPING: Tennis Ball (2.50 in.).

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
701 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     Hail             6 SW Augusta            44.62N 91.20W
04/13/2026  M1.00 Inch       Eau Claire         WI   Broadcast Media

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
703 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     Hail             2 ESE Hanska            44.14N 94.46W
04/13/2026  M2.50 Inch       Brown              MN   Trained Spotter

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
706 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     Hail             4 N Madelia             44.11N 94.42W
04/13/2026  M2.75 Inch       Brown              MN   Trained Spotter

&&

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