EF2 tornado, Rindal to Fertile, Minnesota, June 8, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
240 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

Thunderstorms firing ahead of and along a cold front moving
across eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota this
afternoon. MU CAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg combined with shear of 20
to 45 knots will support severe storms this afternoon and evening.
So far this afternoon the main threats have been heavy rain and
high winds of up to 75 mph. There is also potential for some small
to medium sized hail this afternoon and evening. Some more
discrete multicellular storms remain possible this afternoon, but
the overall trend is moving towards more of a linear convective
mode. Storms expected to continue firing along the cold front as
it moves farther into Minnesota tonight. Thunderstorms will
continue into the overnight, but severe threat should lessen to
diminish around sunset.

Thunderstorms will continue overnight into Sunday morning, mainly
across Minnesota. Some of these storms may still be strong, but
severe will be less likely. After the cold front and thunderstorms
pass Sunday will be quieter and cooler day with high temperatures
in the upper 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

Monday through Wednesday...Northwesterly flow behind this weekend's
system and high pressure will start out the work week cooler than
average and dry. A clipper system moving down into SD late Monday
night and into Tuesday will bring the return of some thunderstorm
chances. At this point shear does not look too impressive for severe
potential but a lot could change in the next few days. A cold front
moving through and high pressure building in for Wednesday will
bring a drying trend, but highs look to stay below 70 with a pretty
cold air mass moving into the region.

Thursday through Saturday...12Z operational GFS run has an upper low
dropping out of Canada, bringing some more precip and unseasonably
cool temps. The ECMWF is warmer with more of an open wave, and the R-
climate percentiles does not show anything indicating that much of a
cold trend. With not a lot of certainty will continue with the
blended solution, with some chance POPs towards the end of the week
and temps near or slightly above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms early this evening
with thunderstorms becoming more widespread later this afternoon
into this evening. These showers and thunderstorms are firing
along a cold front moving across eastern North Dakota and
northwest Minnesota. This front will lead to a shift in winds from
the south to the northwest. Gusty winds around 20 to 25 knots this
evening possible with isolated higher gusts possible in
thunderstorms. Ceilings and visibility will remain VFR with some
occasional reductions to MVFR or even IFR in thunderstorms today.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...NC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
313 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-090815-
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-
313 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon could become strong,
especially east of the Devils Lake Basin. Damaging wind gusts and
hail up to one inch in diameter will be the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Another round of thunderstorms is possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation not likely.

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-
049-052>054-090815-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Pembina-
Eastern Walsh County-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-
Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-Western Walsh County-
313 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon with risks to include damaging wind gusts and up to
ping pong ball sized hail. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
Peak risk will occur between 2pm and 6pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Another round of thunderstorms is possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>