Tornadoes · United States · Kentucky · 2016
EF1 tornado, Graysville, Kentucky, May 10, 2016
This EF1 tornado ran 0.4 miles across Breckinridge County on May 10, 2016, touching down at 2:22 PM CDT and reaching 25 yards wide. It killed nobody, and did $100,000 of property damage.
The rating scale
Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.
EF065 to 85 mph
Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.
EF186 to 110 mphthis tornado
Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.
EF2111 to 135 mph
Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.
EF3136 to 165 mph
Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.
EF4166 to 200 mph
Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.
EF5over 200 mph
Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.
Unrated
The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.
The record
- Rating
- EF1
- Date
- May 10, 2016
- Touchdown
- 2:22 PM CDT (19:22 UTC)
- Lifted
- 2:23 PM CDT (19:23 UTC)
- On the ground
- 1 minutes
- Path length
- 0.4 miles (0.6 km)
- Path width
- 25 yards (23 m)
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- $100,000
- County
- Breckinridge County
- Touchdown point
- 37.773, -86.300
- Lift-off point
- 37.771, -86.293
- Record number
- 1605101322-01
The damage survey
24 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS LMK, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF1. The highest wind the damage implies is 110 mph.
- North wall of garage blown out. Garage door blown in
- South wall of building pushed out as roof lifted
- numerous trees in area with snapped limbs broken trunks and uprooted
- definite 10 yard path of smashed down vegetation, water pulled from pond and track with debris going over hillside
Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.
What the Weather Service recorded
A warm moist air mass collided with several passing weather systems to spark rounds of strong to severe storms across central Kentucky during the afternoon and evening hours on May 10th. Very large hail up to 2 inches in diameter was reported along with damaging winds and a few tornadoes.
A very narrow intense damage path of rotating winds 90 to 95 mph was embedded within a 3 mile wide area of straight line winds in eastern Breckinridge County. The tornado left a distinct path in the vegetation and destroyed a part of a large metal barn near the Rosetta General Store. It also caused the walls of 2 adjacent outbuildings and a garage to buckle out. Wind-driven hail occurring with the storm shredded the vinyl siding on the west side of a home.
From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the tornado touched down, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the tornado touched down at May 10, 2:03 PM CDT, 19 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 10, 2:03 PM CDT, 19 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 .SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)... Issued at 251 PM EDT Tue May 10 2016 ...A Couple Rounds of Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible... The immediate concern is this afternoon remains the possibility of severe thunderstorms. Afternoon mesoanalysis shows the highest shear values and effective helicity values west of I-65. This is the area most likely to see supercells or potentially a tornado. The forecast does show this area shifting a bit east over the next few hours, but not as far as eastern KY. Across the rest of the Watch area, SBCAPE values have risen into the 1000-2000 J/kg range and there is the potential for storms to form along outflow boundaries or differential heating boundaries. Damaging winds and potentially large hail will be the main concern. Across portions of southern IN not in the watch, the rain from earlier has stabilized the region somewhat, so the severe potential is less. The strong storms may continue into the early evening hours. They should weaken as the sun goes down and the upper level wave moves east of the region. However, showers and storms will continue into the overnight hours with area of highest coverage shifting to the south. For Wednesday there should be a relative lull in precipitation during the morning hours. Temperatures will rise into the 80s in the afternoon with dewpoints rising into the lower to mid 60s. Model sounding show quite a bit of instability developing during the afternoon with CAPE values rising to 2500-3000J/kg. However, wind shear will be much lower than it is today and weak upper level ridging will be building in. In addition, the only real triggers for storms will be leftover boundaries from today's convection. Therefore, if any storms do develop, they could become severe with damaging winds and large hail. However, coverage of storms should be more sparse than today. .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue May 10 2016 Another round of strong to severe storms will be possible on Thursday as a cold front approaches and moves through the area. With the area in the warm sector for much of the day temperatures will rise into the lower 80s with instability increasing through the day. Shear values will still be marginal, but with the front moving in, some strong storms could become severe and produce wind damage, particularly if there is a break in the storms during the morning hours. The rain will move out on Thursday night with drier air and high pressure building in behind it. Friday will be dry with highs in the low to mid 70s. The dry weather will be short lived as another wave and cold front swings into the area Friday night. This will bring another round of showers Friday night that will be moving out on Saturday morning. This boundary will then stall out to the south of the region and serve as a focus for more showers and storms from Sunday into early next week. Temperatures through the weekend will be on the cool side. Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the 40s. We should see some moderation early next week. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Issued at 115 PM EDT Tue May 10 2016 Strengthening line of convection across western Kentucky will continue to move eastward this afternoon. This activity will affect KSDF and KBWG early in the period and then affect KLEX later this afternoon and evening. A mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings are expected early this afternoon as skies break out from this morning's convection. Ceilings will see a short improvement to VFR before going back down into MVFR/VFR range as the second batch of convection moves across the region. Best timing on convection for BWG looks to be in the 10/20 to 11/04Z and at KSDF from 10/19 through 10/22Z. Given KLEX's further east location, convection will likely hold off until after 10/20Z. In advance of convection, a southwest wind of 10-15kts with occasional gusts in the 20-24kt range will be possible. Forecast confidence for the overnight period is quite low. It looks like convection will wane after sunset with the loss of heating and forcing. If skies clear out, then fog will be a problem. For now have taken KBWG and KLEX down to MVFR overnight. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && Short Term........EER Long Term.........EER Aviation..........MJ
Hazardous weather outlook, May 10, 2:22 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 INZ078-079-090>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081- 082-111930- SCOTT-JEFFERSON-HARRISON-FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO- GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT-OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER- ANDERSON-WOODFORD-FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-WASHINGTON-MERCER- JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE-GARRARD-MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART- GREEN-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN-LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE- METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-CUMBERLAND-CLINTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...CORYDON... NEW ALBANY...JEFFERSONVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG... BRANDENBURG...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN... SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...MILTON... NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA... TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS... CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE... WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER... RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...GREENSBURG... CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN... FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE... EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 /222 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/ ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR TORNADOES AS WELL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL VARY DEPENDING ON HOW STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EACH DAY...BUT 1-2 INCHES WITH SCATTERED AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING THIS WEEK TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. && MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE. INZ076-077-083-084-089-111930- ORANGE-WASHINGTON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...JASPER...ENGLISH... TELL CITY 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 /222 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL VARY DEPENDING ON HOW STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EACH DAY...BUT 1-2 INCHES WITH SCATTERED AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING THIS WEEK TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. && MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE. EER
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 10, 12:56 PM CDT, 1 hour 26 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1256 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
INZ089-KYZ023-024-026-101830-
PERRY-OHIO-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-
1256 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016
...A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN PERRY...
NORTHEASTERN OHIO...SOUTHWESTERN BRECKINRIDGE AND HANCOCK COUNTIES...
AT 1254 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR OWENSBORO...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TELL CITY...HAWESVILLE...CANNELTON...CLOVERPORT...FORDSVILLE...ARRINGTON
CORNER...ASKIN...DEANEFIELD...NARROWS AND DODD.
LAT...LON 3763 8695 3762 8692 3767 8682 3771 8687
3774 8682 3779 8682 3784 8685 3783 8690
3784 8691 3787 8691 3788 8689 3790 8691
3798 8666 3755 8660 3755 8662 3757 8663
3755 8667 3758 8701
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 263DEG 29KT 3769 8719
AMSLocal storm report, May 10, 2:01 PM CDT, 21 minutes before
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</html>Local storm report, May 10, 2:19 PM CDT, 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
319 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0310 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SE HARDINSBURG 37.76N 86.44W
05/10/2016 BRECKINRIDGE KY LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG HWY 60.
&&
KDWLocal storm report, May 10, 2:20 PM CDT, 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0310 PM HAIL HARDINSBURG 37.78N 86.45W
05/10/2016 E0.88 INCH BRECKINRIDGE KY AMATEUR RADIO
&&
KDWThe air that afternoon
The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), 12:00Z
7.4 hours before the tornado, 185 km from the path. May 10, 2016.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 62 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -131 J/kg
- Surface CAPE
- 65 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 818 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 43 kt
- 0-1 km bulk shear
- 39 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 339 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 332 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
- 0-3 km lapse rate
- 4.9 K/km
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), 00:00Z
4.6 hours after it, 185 km from the path. May 11, 2016.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1257 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -9 J/kg
- Surface CAPE
- 2184 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1467 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 40 kt
- 0-1 km bulk shear
- 21 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 116 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 276 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.4
- Supercell composite
- 6.3
- 0-3 km lapse rate
- 7.7 K/km
The surface observations
Fort Knox/Godman (FTK), 32 km from the path, in the two hours either side.
| Time (UTC) | Temp (°F) | Dew point (°F) | Wind | Gust (kt) | Pressure (mb) | Weather |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 UTC |
From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.
The radar
The Louisville radar (KLVX), 38 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 19:23 UTC.
Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track
Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.
This ground now
The live radar over the trackEvery 2016 tornado in KentuckyEvery tornado in Kentucky since 1950Warnings in force in Kentucky nowThe forecast where you are
The other tornadoes of May 10, 2016
11 more were confirmed in the United States that day.
| Date | Time | Rating | Where | Path (mi) | Width (yd) | Deaths | Injuries | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10 | 2:44 PM CDT | EF3 | Graves, KY | 19.0 | 450 | 10 | $3.5 million | |
| May 10 | 3:25 PM CDT | EF0 | Holt, NE | 0.2 | 20 | $40,000 | ||
| May 10 | 3:55 PM CDT | EF0 | Lyon, KY | 0.1 | 30 | |||
| May 10 | 5:25 PM CDT | EF1 | Muhlenberg, KY | 5.3 | 100 | $135,000 | ||
| May 10 | 5:36 PM CDT | EF0 | Pope, IL | 0.1 | 20 | |||
| May 10 | 5:56 PM CDT | EF0 | Hardin, IL | 0.1 | 20 | |||
| May 10 | 6:06 PM CDT | EF1 | Union, KY | 3.7 | 50 | $25,000 | ||
| May 10 | 6:06 PM CDT | EF2 | Ohio, KY | 8.6 | 300 | $150,000 | ||
| May 10 | 7:17 PM CDT | EF0 | Trigg, KY | 1.6 | 100 | $20,000 | ||
| May 10 | 7:29 PM CDT | EF0 | Christian, KY | 0.0 | 30 | |||
| May 10 | 7:45 PM CDT | EF0 | Christian, KY | 0.0 | 20 |
What this means
Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.
Sources
NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.