EF0 tornado, Coolidge, Kansas, May 21, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
233 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

MSAS showing weak surface low pressure centered over the western
Oklahoma panhandle with attendant cold front from wet of Syracuse
into southwest Nebraska this afternoon. Also a dryline and warmfront
extended south from near LBL into the Texas Panhandle. Ahead and
east of these features has been a stubborn field of stratus clouds
that has created a large temperatures difference from the upper 60s
to low 70s under the cloud cover and contrasted by low 80s over the
Sunny Syracuse-Johnson-Elkhart area. Latest HRRR initiate these
convective elements at 21 UTC along the cold front along the highway
25 corridor with organized elements reaching the highway 83 corridor
by around 10 pm. In addition to a hail and 60-70 mph wind threat, a
sizable area of 1 to 2 inch rain is likely with more localized areas
of 3 and 4 inches just as likely.  Increased Pops over the area as
widespread trailing stratiform precipitation is likely beyond
midnight even as the overall severe risk should be decreasing.
Uncertainty with respect to  and additional marginally elevated
severe pulse hail storms in the southeast will revolve around mid
level wave that will be moving into the area during the overnight
hours. Lows are forecast from the mid 50s west to more mild
summerlike 60s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

Potential exists for thunderstorms to be ongoing early Friday
morning across the eastern and especially south central Kansas
counties as models show a mid level trough/weak pvu anomaly moving
though the area with still conditionally unstable air. This
should clear out though with sky becoming sunny area wide by
afternoon resulting in temperatures warming into the 80s all the
way to Hays. It will likely remain inactive later in the day
Friday with respect to convection, however the 850 wind field
transitions from weak easterly flow Friday to veering and
increasing winds though Saturday, with stronger south winds, and
better moisture transport ahead of a dryline for Saturday late
afternoon and Saturday evening. As a result , convection is
possible Saturday across the eastern counties. The southwest winds
will make temperatures much warmer on Saturday, before a cold
front tempers highs and focuses severe weather chances once again
along a southward propagating cold front through Sunday night.
This will setup Monday to likely be cooler and cloudy and perhaps
showery with diurnal thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

Main impact to aviation will be the potential for convection, with
heavy rain, and lowered ceilings going into the mid evening hours. A
cold front over nw and far west central KS will be the likely
initiation point for a few scattered thunderstorms as early as 21
UTC. The initial storms should quickly begin to develop additional
cells on the outflow with a cold pool developing and driving an
MCS east-southeast through the late evening hours and beyond
midnight. There is good deep shear for initial rounds of large
hail in excess of 2 inches and downdraft cape to support
accelerating downbursts to 60 mph or more locally. More
uncertainly however in potential for widespread damaging winds
based on HRRR/HiRES model relatively low post gust front surface
wind output. An upper wave will be rotating through the region
during the early morning Friday which may translate into a
continued , mainly low end severe risk in central Kansas early
Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  81  59  90 /  60  20   0   0
GCK  53  81  57  91 /  80  10   0   0
EHA  54  84  56  91 /  40  10   0   0
LBL  54  83  57  94 /  50  20   0   0
HYS  57  80  57  87 /  80  20  10  10
P28  61  81  63  88 /  70  60  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
345 AM CDT Thu May 21 2020

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-221000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
345 AM CDT Thu May 21 2020 /245 AM MDT Thu May 21 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

There will be a chance for severe thunderstorms late today and
early tonight. The main hazards will be hail 2 inches and larger,
strong damaging winds greater up to 70 mph and periods of heavy
rainfall. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

There will be a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday
night. Large hail and periods of heavy rainfall currently appear
to be the main hazards from these storms.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required after 4 pm, especially south
of a Garden City to Dodge City line.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc