Unrated tornado, Alta Vista, Kansas, May 14, 2020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
637 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

Southwest to nearly zonal flow is occurring across the state as of
20Z ahead of a shortwave trough in the Pacific Northwest. At the
surface, circulation associated with the low can be seen in west
central KS on satellite with a small break in the cumulus field
along the frontal boundary, which is currently located along a line
from Abilene to Seneca. Temperatures have warmed to the upper 70s to
low 80s area-wide with dew points in the 60s. Eastern KS is still
under a cap, but this should continue to erode the rest of the
afternoon with the current conditions allowing plenty of
destabilization for storms late this afternoon into tonight.

The surface front should slowly progress eastward with CAMs
consistently showing storms initiating between Topeka and Emporia on
the leading edge of the boundary, most likely within the 21-23Z time
frame. RAP forecast soundings have shown CAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg in
areas along and southeast of the current boundary with shear of 25-
40 kts. The shear looks strongest after 00Z when the LLJ strengthens
to 35-40 kts. That being said, storm mode looks messy with
supercells possible initially before outflow boundaries develop and
storms congeal into a line and slowly move southeast. Hodographs
continue to show good veering in the low levels, so a few tornadoes
cannot be ruled out with supercells; however, the initially weaker 0-
6 km shear makes this threat more questionable. Large hail and
damaging winds will be a good possibility with steep mid-level lapse
rates. The HRRR has been consistent in keeping a strong line of
storms in east central KS late this evening and potentially
lingering into the overnight hours along the southern border of the
CWA. This is also consistent with models bringing the boundary south
of the area by 12Z, which is slower than indicated yesterday. Based
on this, have expanded the Flash Flood Watch to include Lyon and
Osage Counties. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches with locally higher
amounts are still possible in this area through Friday morning.

Storms should dissipate by sunrise Friday morning with some clearing
in northern KS while east central areas likely stay cloudy. The
front appears to move back north again very slightly into the far
southeastern counties of the CWA during the day. An additional round
of storms is possible in this area perhaps in the late afternoon,
but more so by the evening and overnight hours. The NAM tends to
keep the area dry until early Saturday whereas the EC/GFS start to
bring precipitation into the area late in the afternoon. Some
uncertainty in severe weather potential exists due to this
difference in the models, although forecast soundings do show MUCAPE
up to 1200-1500 J/kg and shear up to 40 kts, which would support
elevated storms capable of hail and wind hazards.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

The surface boundary will continue to slowly push back north into
Saturday with showers and thunderstorms still possible on and off
for much of the day. The better upper level support arrives with a
more amplified trough moving across the Northern Plains as well as a
southern stream trough across TX. No severe weather is expected at
this time, but additional rainfall could exacerbate flooding in
areas that already receive heavy rainfall tonight.

Dry weather returns by Sunday as an amplified ridge moves across the
area ahead of a deep trough coming onshore from the Pacific.
Temperatures will warm well into the 80s by midweek before the next
chance of rain next Thursday, although model differences keep low
confidence in this at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

Thunderstorms have developed ahead of a sfc boundary at issuance
time. Storms are expected to be near or impact terminals for the
first few hours of this period, before moving south of sites late
this evening/early tonight. Winds shift behind the boundary to the
north and northeast tonight, and will then become predominately
easterly tomorrow. Additionally, a few hours of MVFR CIGS are
possible during the morning hours at the TOP airports, but VFR
should prevail at KMHK.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ040-054>056-058-
059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Picha
LONG TERM...Picha
AVIATION...Teefey

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
352 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-152100-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
352 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop between 4-6 pm this
afternoon somewhere over east central and northeast Kansas, or
generally along a line from Emporia to Atchison. Severe storms
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible.
Very heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding. The
thunderstorms are likely to persist into the evening and may even
linger into the early morning hours across east central Kansas, or
generally along and south of Interstate 35.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Another round of thunderstorms is possible Friday night into
Saturday. There is potential for a few strong to severe storms
with hail and damaging winds as the main threats. Rainfall through
Saturday could exacerbate flooding for areas that receive heavy
rain tonight.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this afternoon into tonight.

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts over one inch
to the National Weather Service in Topeka.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
715 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

KSZ011-022>024-026-036-038-039-150045-
Wabaunsee-Geary-Shawnee-Pottawatomie-Jefferson-Riley-Jackson-Nemaha-
715 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN JEFFERSON...GEARY...
SOUTHEASTERN RILEY...NORTHWESTERN SHAWNEE...NORTHERN WABAUNSEE...
POTTAWATOMIE...JACKSON AND SOUTHEASTERN NEMAHA COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM
CDT...

At 715 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles west of Muscotah to 5 miles south of
Grandview Plaza. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Manhattan, Junction City, Wamego, Holton, Valley Falls, Rossville,
Alma, Westmoreland, St. Marys, Ogden, Grandview Plaza, Onaga, Hoyt,
St. George, Nortonville, Maple Hill, Wetmore, Mayetta, McFarland and
Paxico.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 294 and 339.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3887 9659 3887 9674 3905 9694 3973 9593
      3968 9579 3965 9579 3965 9573 3959 9556
      3942 9557 3942 9518 3937 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 251DEG 18KT 3954 9558 3895 9680

Skow

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
732 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

KSZ037-054-150100-
Lyon-Morris-
732 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MORRIS AND NORTHWESTERN
LYON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 732 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Strong City, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Council Grove, Bushong, Dunlap and Council Grove Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3852 9672 3880 9648 3875 9639 3874 9639
      3874 9638 3863 9619 3852 9639
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 226DEG 25KT 3851 9658

Skow

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
754 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

KSZ012-024-026-150130-
Jefferson-Brown-Jackson-
754 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN JEFFERSON...JACKSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN BROWN COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 753 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Denison, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Holton, Horton, Valley Falls, Hoyt, Nortonville, Mayetta, Everest,
Whiting, Denison, Circleville, Netawaka, Willis and Potawatomi
Reservation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3922 9580 3922 9592 3932 9604 3943 9604
      3977 9544 3967 9534 3965 9534 3965 9556
      3942 9557 3942 9518 3940 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 235DEG 23KT 3942 9566

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
811 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     HAIL             8 NE CARLTON            38.78N 97.20W
05/14/2020  E1.75 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY QUARTER-SIZE HAIL, ONE GOLF BALL
            SIZE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

CP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
816 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     HAIL             4 NW DUNLAP             38.61N 96.42W
05/14/2020  E1.75 INCH       MORRIS             KS   PUBLIC

&&

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
819 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     HAIL             7 SSW ENTERPRISE        38.80N 97.15W
05/14/2020  E1.25 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY QUARTER-SIZE HAIL, SOME HALF-DOLLAR.
            LASTED ABOUT 3-4 MINUTES.

&&

CP