Unrated tornado, Rosalia, Kansas, May 24, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
241 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Stationary front currently extends from eastern Nebraska to near
KICT and into the TX Panhandle. Airmass east of this feature
remains extremely moist with PW values around 175%-200% of normal
with dewpoints around 70. 850mb moisture transport into the
boundary has allowed sct convection to persist early this
afternoon along the front. Should see an increase in activity
later this afternoon as low level moisture continues to work back
to the northwest and 850-700mb moisture transport continues to
ramp up with retreating boundary allowing for maximum convergence.

Confidence is increasing that we are in for yet another round of
heavy rain late this afternoon and especially this evening for
areas generally along the Turnpike into the Flint Hills. Obviously
with antecedent conditions, flash flooding will be likely with
the extreme rainfall rates we are expecting. With CAPE values in
the 2,000/3,000J/KG range and 0-6km bulk shear 30-40kts, large
hail will be possible with stronger storms this afternoon and
tonight. Would like to rule out tornado threat, but with very
high 0-3km CAPE, very low LCLs and a boundary floating around,
cant' rule out a couple brief tornadoes into the early evening
hours.

Surface boundary, along with rich moisture, will work back to the
west tonight into Sat, with the front making it all the way back
to near the KS/CO border. Current thinking is that the bulk of the
daytime convection Sat will be out over western KS, where pesky
boundary will be situated. Models agree on rapid increase in
moisture transport early Sat evening into southwest KS which will
result in a large MCS developing and tracking east Sat night. With
this, will continue Flash Flood Watch through Sat night. Best
chance for daytime severe storms Sat affecting our forecast area,
would be for something to develop along the warm front as it
lifts northwest, which would affect generally the northwest
portion of our forecast area.

Sun looks like a repeat of Sat, at least for location of
convection. Should see daytime development over western KS where
boundary will be floating around. In addition, there looks to be
decent model agreement some shortwave energy lifting out of NM.
Anything that develops out west Sun will also work east Sun night
into Mon morning, affecting much of our area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

By Tue morning, main upper low is expected to be situated in the
southwest Nebraska/northeast CO area and is expected to lift
northeast Tue afternoon. Cold front is expected to stretch
generally along the Turnpike Tue afternoon and will provide a
chance for at least some sct convection Tue afternoon into Tue
evening. Looks to be some agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in
finally pushing the boundary and moist airmass south and east of
the area for Wed into the end of the work week, which would
finally bring an end to day after day of flooding and severe
storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Primary aviation concerns: TSRA, MVFR CIGS, and LLWS

A surface boundary stretches southwest to northeast from the Texas
Panhandle through northern Missouri. An unstable and very moist
airmass along this boundary will lead to scattered to numerous
thunderstorms with reductions in VIS/CIGs. The coverage of TSRA
may wane some after 06z, potentially with a break through Saturday
morning. Late tonight, a brief period of LLWS may develop as well.
Lower CIGs will continue to be a concern as well.

Martin

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

There will be an enhanced risk for flash flooding from now through
the evening hours for areas generally along the KS Turnpike into
the Flint Hills. This is where the best low level moisture
convergence will be situated as the surface front lifts back to
the northwest. Rainfall rates into the evening hours will easily
be over 1.5 inches per hour with rates up to 3 inches per hour not
out of the question. Should see a lull in flash flood potential
during the day Sat, with the better focus shifting to western KS.
However, the MCS that forms over western KS will track east Sat
evening and will bring additional flooding threat first to the
areas west of I-135 early Sat evening and further east later Sat
night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    77  66  81  66 /  60  60  20  60
Hutchinson      76  65  82  64 /  40  40  20  60
Newton          76  65  81  65 /  60  60  20  70
ElDorado        76  67  80  65 /  70  70  20  70
Winfield-KWLD   78  67  81  67 /  80  80  20  60
Russell         78  62  83  60 /  10  20  30  60
Great Bend      77  63  82  61 /  10  20  30  60
Salina          79  66  82  62 /  20  20  20  60
McPherson       76  65  82  64 /  30  30  20  60
Coffeyville     82  70  82  69 /  60  60  30  50
Chanute         80  69  81  67 /  70  70  30  60
Iola            79  69  81  67 /  80  70  30  70
Parsons-KPPF    81  70  82  68 /  60  60  30  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ049>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...RM
HYDROLOGY...RBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
302 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-250930-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
302 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will impact the region, likely
most numerous this afternoon and evening generally southeast of a
line extending from Salina to Lyons. Strong to severe thunderstorms
are likely, with the primary threat being large hail and damaging
winds, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Additionally, flash flooding is likely late this afternoon through
the evening hours for areas generally along the Kansas Turnpike
including the Flint Hills. This will be due to very high rainfall
rates that maybe on the order of 3 inches per hour. Please refer to
the Flash Flood Watch for additional information.

Widespread river flooding, some of which is significant, will
continue to be a threat as well. Please see the latest River Flood
Warnings for the latest information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Periodic rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rain, flooding, and
severe weather will continue to threaten the area at times through
Tuesday evening. Please continue to monitor later forecasts as we
refine the threat areas for each day.

Significant and high-impact river flooding will continue well into
next week. Please see the latest River Flood Warnings for the
latest information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this afternoon and evening, mainly
southeast of a line extending from Salina to Lyons.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
429 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 PM     TORNADO          1 S DOUGLASS            37.50N 97.01W
05/24/2019                   BUTLER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO WAS SPOTTED ON THE GROUND PASSING THROUGH THE
            SOUTH SIDE OF DOUGLASS. TREE DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED.

&&

TVAUGHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
436 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 PM     TORNADO          2 E DOUGLASS            37.52N 96.97W
05/24/2019                   BUTLER             KS   STORM CHASER

            LARGE TREES DOWN SNAPPED AT THE BASE.

&&

CWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
438 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S BURNS               38.06N 96.89W
05/24/2019                   BUTLER             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            4 TO 6 INCHES OF WATER OVER THE ROAD ON COUNTY ROADS JUST
            SOUTH OF THE BUTLER/MARION COUNTY LINE.

&&

TVAUGHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
440 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     FLASH FLOOD      POTWIN                  37.94N 97.02W
05/24/2019                   BUTLER             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY SERVICES RESPONDING TO POSSIBLE WATER RESCUE IN
            POTWIN. REPORTS OF HIGH WATER FLOWING INTO A HOME.

&&

TVAUGHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
443 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             1 W LEON                37.69N 96.80W
05/24/2019  M1.00 INCH       BUTLER             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL WEST OF LEON ON HWY 400. ALSO
            40+MPH WINDS.

&&

TVAUGHAN