EF0 tornado, Lake Mc Kinney, Kansas, June 3, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
602 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

The main focus for this afternoon and evenings forecast is again for
chances of severe convection. One big negative for convective
development this afternoon is a warming mid level. Of the convective
allowing models a couple allow no storms across southwest Kansas
while the NMMs, 4 km NAM and the HRRR all support some type of
brief, mainly isolated supercell development coming out of eastern
Colorado near the dryline and sweeping east into west central KS.
Sufficient shear and MUCAPE combinations are in place to support a
brief window of severe threat including large hail (golf balls to
tennis balls in most instances) as well as damaging supercell RFD
winds. Any severe threat is likely confined to locations west of
highway 83 and is low to begin with given the trouble storms will
have gaining large depth.

Wind advisory conditions will persist through sunset before the
surface heating ceases. Some of the warmest overnight temperature of
the season will be experienced tonight and early tomorrow especially
across south central Kansas. The surface cold front will push though
the area by noon on Wednesday providing northeasterly upslope
surface flow. Models at this time are not indicating any additional
convection, at least during the daytime hours on Wednesday. The
model consensus for highs Wednesday range from upper 80s north to
upper 90s south and west.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

A convectively active period awaits midweek through the weekend as
southwestern Kansas finds itself in a favorable west-southwest flow
regime with a mean upper tropospheric jet extending from southern
California to central Kansas. A cold front will push south late
tonight into early Wednesday before stalling out just to our south
across the northern Panhandles/far northwest Oklahoma. A few
surface-based storms may form across Barber County late afternoon
Wednesday, however a very warm middle troposphere will likely
prevent surface based convection. Things will change quite a bit
overnight Wednesday night as the 850-700mb layer becomes very warm
frontogenetic as a weak upper level disturbance ripples
east-northeast through the pattern. The warm frontogenetic forcing
for ascent will be quite strong during the 06-12Z Thursday time
frame. Ample moisture in this frontogenetic layer will contribute to
upwards of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE during the overnight hours. All the
reliable global mesoscale models at this time frame are bullish on
nocturnal convective development...and fairly vigorous at
that...especially north of a Garden City to Dodge City to Pratt
line. 2-7km AGL deep layer shear in combination with the
aforementioned 2000 CAPE will be more than favorable for elevated
severe storms capable of very large hail perhaps to two inches in
diameter. A heavy rain threat will also exist as storms would likely
form in a northwest to south east orientation with some individual
convective cell training a distinct possibility.

Everywhere we have 50 or greater POP we will amend the thunderstorm
forecast with Large Hail and Heavy Rain. This will be mesoscale
convective system (MCS) Number One. The overall pattern will remain
unchanged, and the setup for another MCS (Number Two) will likely
take place across the southern half of the DDC forecast area
(along/south of the Arkansas River) in a renewed zone of 850-700mb
warm frontogenesis. MCS Number Two would likely move off into south
central KS and/or northern Oklahoma by daybreak Friday with some
recovery taking place through the day Friday. The surface front will
likely remain just south of the Kansas-Oklahoma border with
post-frontal upslope convection likely to form across eastern
Colorado late in the day Friday. Some of this diurnal activity may
spread into far west-central/southwest Kansas by early Friday
evening as MCS Number Three. What seems more likely is that
nocturnal MCS Number Three will materialize after sunset Friday as
yet another minor disturbance moves northeast through the pattern
across the Central Plains. Eventually, a final, stronger shortwave
trough will eject out into the Central Plains by late in the weekend
and surface-based storms may impact southwestern Kansas. By Saturday
and Sunday, though, the details become increasingly sketchy as the
result of MCS Number Three may place the effective front too far
south for MCS Number Four to impact southwestern Kansas.

The bottom line is that a wet period is in store and much of the
southwest Kansas region will see in excess of an inch of rain before
all is said and done.  There will likely be some areas of the
southwest Kansas region that see MUCH more than that...especially of
successive MCS's track over the same general areas of our region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early
Wednesday morning. Winds will remain south to southwesterly 20 to
35kt through this evening as a strong surface low in northwestern
Kansas moves eastward into north central Kansas overnight. A
frontal boundary will then push southeastward across western
Kansas early Wednesday morning turning winds northerly 10 to 20kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  92  62  84 /  10  10  50  40
GCK  64  92  61  82 /  20  10  50  40
EHA  65  94  61  85 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  66  95  63  87 /  20  10  30  20
HYS  66  85  60  81 /  30  10  50  50
P28  72  97  66  86 /  10  20  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening FOR
KSZ061-062-074-084.

&&

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AMENDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
835 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-041145-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
835 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014 /735 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 8 PM CDT.  PLEASE SEE THE SPECIFIC
WEATHER  MESSAGES FOR DETAILS.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM JETMORE TO LACROSSE. HAIL AS LARGE
AS HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, THERE ARE VARYING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT PERIOD WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS IS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE
SEVERE BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

33

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
509 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

KSZ061-040000-
HAMILTON-
509 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY...

AT 506 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF HOLLY...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
COOLIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3825 10205 3827 10197 3827 10157 3811 10155
      3794 10155 3792 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 261DEG 20KT 3815 10206

18

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
559 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

KSZ061-062-040045-
HAMILTON-KEARNY-
559 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HAMILTON AND
NORTHWESTERN KEARNY COUNTIES...

AT 554 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF COOLIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3827 10204 3827 10134 3806 10143 3802 10205
      3821 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 257DEG 19KT 3815 10187

18

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
813 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     HAIL             5 N SYRACUSE            38.05N 101.75W
06/03/2014  M1.00 INCH       HAMILTON           KS   PUBLIC

&&

RBURG