EF0 tornado, Coolidge, Kansas, July 25, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
328 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTED A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE AND
THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES IN NORTHERN
COLORADO AND WYOMING. WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM MOVING
OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EAST INTO KANSAS SOUTH OF GOODLAND, HAYS AND GREAT BEND. A
COOL FRONT EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM THE LOW INTO THE FRONT RANGE. THE
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A CONTINUING AREA OF WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS GRADUALLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN
CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN AN AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

FOR THIS EVENING, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE NAM SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING OUT
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS . THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HIGH-RES RAPID REFRESH SHOW
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THE MODEL ALSO SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY POPS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST AND SHIFT THE AREA OF HIGHEST POPS
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE NIGHT GOES ON.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT, THERE COULD BE
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF MIST OR
FOG. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NORTH BY FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY:

SURFACE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING SYNOPTIC TROF. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
60S DEG F AS A DRIER AIR MASS ADVECTS IN. ON SATURDAY, UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS MAY LEAD TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HAVE GONE
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXIMUMS AS THE ECMWF SHOWS HIGHER RH'S IN THE
850-700 HPA LAYER. MAXIMUMS WILL BE THE COOLEST NEAR HAYS AND THE WARMEST
NEAR ELKHART (VALUES 82-90 DEG F). SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER AS AN 80 KT 250 HPA JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BY EVENING.

SUNDAY:

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/THETA-E ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
CONVECTIVE DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY. HAVE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES UP NORTH CLOSER TO THE NOSE OF THE 850 HPA THETA-E AXIS
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. MAXIMUMS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S DEG F AS THE LOW
LEVEL WARM PLUME ADVECTS FARTHER EAST.

MONDAY AND BEYOND:

WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THUNDERSTORM
PLACEMENT AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ALLBLEND
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90 DEG F WITH
LOWS AROUND 70 DEG F ON AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST KANSAS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THESE STORMS COULD
IMPACT THE HAYS, GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY TAF SITES AS EARLY AS
20Z-22Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z-03Z BEFORE MOVING OUT OF
THE VICINITY TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. WILL CARRY
VCTS AT THE TAF SITES WITH A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR VSBYS AND
VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. LATER TONIGHT WE
COULD SEE MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH SOME
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CIGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  86  62  84 /  60  10  10  20
GCK  63  86  61  86 /  60  10  10  30
EHA  63  87  62  90 /  50  10  10  30
LBL  65  87  62  88 /  60  10   0  20
HYS  63  85  62  82 /  60  10  10  30
P28  67  84  64  83 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...GERARD
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...GERARD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1111 AM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-261000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
1111 AM CDT THU JUL 25 2013 /1011 AM MDT THU JUL 25 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS MAY BECOME SEVERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
WHETHER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR NOT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED FOR HAIL AND WIND REPORTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

GERARD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
404 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

KSZ061-074-252145-
HAMILTON-STANTON-
404 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HAMILTON AND STANTON
COUNTIES...

AT 359 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES SOUTH OF
SYRACUSE TO BARTLETT...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES SOUTH
OF SYRACUSE TO 6 MILES WEST OF THE SAUNDERS ELEVATOR...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3783 10205 3792 10197 3782 10154 3760 10154
      3740 10170 3739 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 295DEG 23KT 3780 10179 3742 10210

RUSSELL