F0 tornado, Greensburg, Kansas, April 23, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
150 PM CDT WED APR 23 2003

DAYS 1-2...
NOT MUCH TIME TODAY DUE TO ONGOING WEATHER. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE CONVECTION NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN MOVING THE
MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE THROUGH AND ENDING THE WEATHER.

THE DIAGNOSTICS SHOWED THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE
ROCKIES WORKING EASTWARD WITH VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE OBSERVED
BETWEEN WHAT IS HAPPENING AND WHAT THE MODELS HAVE FORECAST FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE
UPPER JET AND IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER CYCLONE IS NOW WORKING
EASTWARD AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS IN THE LEE SLOPES. DRY SLOTTING
IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS MY WESTERN ZONES WITH A SHARP DRY LINE NOW
EVIDENT FROM LAKIN TO LIBERAL AND CU BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG IT.
THE UPPER COLD POOL STILL LAGS A BIT FARTHER WEST SO PROBABLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE STRONGER CONVECTIVE PLUMES CAN DEVELOP.
THE DDC MORNING SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR EXPECTED LATE DAY CONDITIONS
PROVIDES AMPLE CAPE AND SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS THOUGH THEY MAY WELL
BE RATHER COMPACT IN VERTICAL EXTENT DUE TO THE MUCH LOWER
TROPOPAUSE IN THE CYCLONE. EXPECT LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS EARLY ON
WITH THE MAIN THREAT WIND AND HAIL. WIND PROFILES INDICATE THAT THE
CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY LINE OUT INTO A SQUALL LINE SITUATION AND
SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE MODIFIED MY GRIDS TO REFLECT
THIS THINKING.

ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES OUT ACROSS KANSAS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
LIGHTEN AND THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN AGAIN. WILL HAVE TO
MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON THE GOING WIND ADVISORY AS THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE DRYLINE EASTWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. COLDER WRAP AROUND IN THE UPPER
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MAKE IT NECESSARY TO KEEP SOME SMALL POPS FOR
SHRA IN THE ZONES THURSDAY BUT WILL END THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AS
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS AND THE CYCLONE TRACKS EAST OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURE WISE, THE GOING FORECAST NEEDED ONLY MINOR TWEEKS TO FIT
ONGOING CONDITIONS AS CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES NICELY LEAVING
THE REGION ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

DAYS 3-7...
NO TIME TO DIG INTO THE LATER PERIODS AND HAVE SIMPLY EXTENDED THE
GOING FORECAST FORWARD ANOTHER DAY. IN ANY CASE, THE GOING FORECAST
NICELY FITS THE FAVORED REGIME SO SHOULD NOT NEED MUCH WORK.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   42  59  43  63 /  20  20   0   0
GCK   40  57  41  62 /   0  20   0   0
EHA   41  62  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
LBL   43  63  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
HYS   46  52  42  61 /  60  20  20   0
P28   50  62  47  65 /  60  20  20   0

.DDC...KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090 WIND ADVSRY
        UNTIL 800 PM CDT.

JOHNSON

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