Tornadoes · United States · Iowa · 2015

EF0 tornado, Pickering, Iowa, November 11, 2015

Name: EF0 tornado, Pickering, Iowa, November 11, 2015
Start: 2015-11-11T22:15:00.000Z
End: 2015-11-11T22:17:00.000Z
Location: Pickering, Iowa

This EF0 tornado ran 1.9 miles across Marshall County on November 11, 2015, touching down at 4:15 PM CST and reaching 100 yards wide. It killed nobody, and did $1,000 of property damage.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

EF065 to 85 mphthis tornado
Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.
EF186 to 110 mph
Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.
EF2111 to 135 mph
Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.
EF3136 to 165 mph
Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.
EF4166 to 200 mph
Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.
EF5over 200 mph
Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.
Unrated
The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating: EF0
Date: November 11, 2015
Touchdown: 4:15 PM CST (22:15 UTC)
Lifted: 4:17 PM CST (22:17 UTC)
On the ground: 2 minutes
Path length: 1.9 miles (3.0 km)
Path width: 100 yards (91 m)
Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $1,000
County: Marshall County
Touchdown point: 41.898, -92.861
Lift-off point: 41.922, -92.842
Record number: 1511111615-01

The damage survey

9 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS DMX, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF0. The highest wind the damage implies is 76 mph.

Multiple outbuildings lost panels.
Sheet metal from outbuildings thrown into house and cars out front.
Debris from unknown origin in field.
Debris thrown across the road.

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

What the Weather Service recorded

Widespread wind and tornado damage occurred in central Iowa as a result of a low pressure system that raced across the state. Originally, the low pressure center developed in eastern/southeastern Colorado late Tuesday/early Wednesday and proceeded to quickly move east-northeast across Kansas before taking a more northeasterly turn as it approached southwest Iowa. Throughout the event, MUCAPE values were generally in the neighborhood of 500 J/kg. Shear values were supportive with 0-1km values and 0-6km values around 35kts and 85-90kts respectively. SRH values were also very supportive with 0-1km and 0-3km values around 350 m2/s2 and 500 m2/s2 respectively. With the speed of the system and the ample support, resulting storms were fast moving, in excess of 40mph, and of the low topped supercell variety before transitioning into a linear system as the event progressed.

Emergency Manager reported damage to several farmsteads with generally minor outbuilding and tree damage.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the tornado touched down, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Des Moines, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the tornado touched down at Nov 11, 3:09 PM CST, 1 hour 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 11, 3:09 PM CST, 1 hour 6 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
309 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

ONGOING SEVERE EVENT THE MAIN EVENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN
OVERNIGHT WILL BE LINGERING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WITH FAST MOVING STORM AND SQUALL LINE CONTINUING AS
DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST WITH THE MAIN LOW...
EXPECTING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN UNTIL 6-7PM...THOUGH
THE BULK OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE NEARLY EAST OF THE REGION.
DEFORMATION AXIS AND PIVOT POINT ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA CONTINUES TO
FAVOR MODERATE RAINFALL DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT THINKING THERE. STRONG FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MIX DOWN ONCE COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMMENCES LATE EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS STILL FAVOR HIGH WIND WARNING
ACROSS THE WEST WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ABOVE 50KTS OVER THE
EASTERN SECTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS THOUGH SYNOPTIC STORM TRANSLATION
THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL STILL FAVORS THE CENTRAL/WEST/NORTH
COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. OTHER CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS CHANGEOVER TO ANY
SNOW.  BUFR SOUNDINGS AND WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE ANY
ORGANIZED SNOW THREAT THOUGH AM EXPECTING A CHANGEOVER TO RASN OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AS THE STORM RAPIDLY DEPARTS. WITH
SATURATED GROUND AND WARM SOIL READINGS TO NOW...NOT EXPECTING TO
SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG
STORM REMAINS WRAPPED UP ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WILL CONTINUE
CURRENT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z WITH SOME EXPECTATION THAT WINDS WILL
BEGIN RELAXING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
SOME CLOUDS WILL RETURN IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AS THE LARGE LOW
TRACKS NORTHEAST. QUIETER CONDITIONS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
INVERSION BEGINS TO FORM AND MIXING WILL END. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. SOME CONFIDENCE
ISSUES WITH REGARD TO SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH THE EURO BEING A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME
CAPE BUT THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM MAY BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING
MAINLY RAIN TO OUR AREA. ONCE AGAIN THE COLD AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THE
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH TO LEAVE ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MORE SEASONAL WITH READINGS IN
THE 40S TO 50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...11/18Z
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE CONVECTION AND WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STRONGER STORMS BREAKING OUT OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND MORE OVER
NORTHEAST KS ATTM. WILL BE SEEING THE STORMS FLARE RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...REACHING KDSM BETWEEN
20-21Z AT LATEST AND NEARING KOTM BY 23-00Z. WINDS STILL EXPECTED
TO REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS NEARING 45 TO NEAR 50 KTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS
SETTLE SLIGHTLY AFT 12Z THURSDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN STRONG WITH
GUSTS NEAR 45KTS. OTHERWISE...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AFT 03Z
AS COLD AIR ARRIVES...THEN RISE TO VFR BETWEEN 13-15Z THURSDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY TEMPO THUNDER WIND GUSTS AS
STORMS NEAR BOTH KDSM AND KOTM TODAY./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-
CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-SAC-
STORY-WARREN-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-
MADISON-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-SAC-STORY-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
ADAMS-APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-
GRUNDY-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POWESHIEK-
RINGGOLD-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WAYNE.

&&

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...REV

Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 11, 3:56 PM CST, 19 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
356 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

IAZ027-028-038-039-049-050-061-062-074-075-081>086-092>097-122200-
BUTLER-BREMER-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-MARSHALL-TAMA-JASPER-POWESHIEK-
MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-
RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
356 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 AND MAINLY EAST OF I35. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THURSDAY. PLEASE REFER
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 7
PM SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>026-033>035-044-122200-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-CRAWFORD-
356 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 AND EAST OF I35. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. QUARTER
SIZED HAIL IS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR AS WELL
WITH AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA TONIGHT. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THURSDAY. PLEASE REFER
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

IAZ036-037-045>048-057>060-070>073-122200-
HAMILTON-HARDIN-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-
POLK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-
356 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF
I35. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES
MAY OCCUR.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THURSDAY. PLEASE REFER
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 7
PM.

REV

In the hours before

Local storm report, Nov 11, 4:02 PM CST, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
402 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WNW NEWTON            41.70N 93.05W
11/11/2015  E65 MPH          JASPER             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATED 65 MPH WIND. FLAG
            RIPPED OFF POLE. DOOR OF BUSINESS SUCKED
            OPEN.

&&

BSS

Local storm report, Nov 11, 4:03 PM CST, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
403 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CENTERVILLE             40.73N 92.87W
11/11/2015                   APPANOOSE          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED NUMEROUS BRANCHES
            UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES OF DIAMETER DOWN AS WELL
            AS A TREE APPROXIMATELY 3 FEET IN DIAMETER.
            TIME RADAR ESTIMATED.

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

Local storm report, Nov 11, 4:04 PM CST, 11 minutes before

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Local storm report, Nov 11, 4:08 PM CST, 7 minutes before

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Local storm report, Nov 11, 4:10 PM CST, 5 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Nov 11, 4:10 PM CST, 5 minutes before

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The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Davenport, (KDVN), 12:00Z

10.3 hours before the tornado, 198 km from the path. November 11, 2015.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -84115 J/kg
Surface CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1035 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 50 kt
0-1 km bulk shear: 14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 101 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 238 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0
0-3 km lapse rate: 2.6 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Davenport, (KDVN), 00:00Z

1.7 hours after it, 198 km from the path. November 12, 2015.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.

Hodograph

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -75276 J/kg
Surface CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 679 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 85 kt
0-1 km bulk shear: 30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 358 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 394 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0
0-3 km lapse rate: 5.1 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The surface observations

Marshalltown (MIW), 23 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

Time (UTC)	Temp (°F)	Dew point (°F)	Wind	Gust (kt)	Pressure (mb)	Weather
00:00 UTC

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

The radar

The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 75 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 22:16 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

This ground now

The live radar over the track Every 2015 tornado in Iowa Every tornado in Iowa since 1950 Warnings in force in Iowa now The forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of November 11, 2015

22 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

Date	Time	Rating	Where	Path (mi)	Width (yd)	Injuries	Damage
November 11	12:48 PM CST	EF0	Page, IA	0.6	50
November 11	1:48 PM CST	EF1	Pottawattamie, IA	10.2	150		$1.4 million
November 11	2:00 PM CST	EF1	Taylor, IA	21.8	450		$405,000
November 11	2:09 PM CST	EF1	Ringgold, IA	12.2	280		$125,000
November 11	2:25 PM CST	EF0	Mercer, MO	0.3	40
November 11	2:31 PM CST	EF0	Carroll, IA	1.5	40
November 11	2:35 PM CST	EF1	Ringgold, IA	11.2	200		$5,000
November 11	2:49 PM CST	EF0	Madison, IA	5.7	70		$3,000
November 11	2:51 PM CST	EF1	Madison, IA	10.1	75		$25,000
November 11	2:56 PM CST	EF0	Madison, IA	3.0	160		$5,000
November 11	2:57 PM CST	EF0	Wayne, IA	0.6	15
November 11	2:57 PM CST	EF0	Guthrie, IA	3.2	75		$5,000
November 11	2:59 PM CST	EF1	Dallas, IA	11.3	100		$10,000
November 11	3:22 PM CST	EF2	Appanoose, IA	13.0	190		$350,000
November 11	3:27 PM CST	EF0	Polk, IA	2.6	150		$25,000
November 11	3:42 PM CST	EF1	Marion, IA	4.4	100	1	$350,000
November 11	4:16 PM CST	EF1	Mahaska, IA	24.6	130		$1,000
November 11	4:20 PM CST	EF2	Mahaska, IA	6.6	150		$76,000
November 11	4:40 PM CST	EF1	Scotland, MO	2.5	75
November 11	6:36 PM CST	EF1	Scott, IA	2.4	100
November 11	6:37 PM CST	EF0	Rock Island, IL	0.1	25
November 11	6:39 PM CST	EF1	Henry, IL	4.2	50

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.