EF2 tornado, Pine Shrs to South Sarasota, Florida, January 17, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
801 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
...HAZARDOUS WINDS WILL BE IMPACTING ALL WATER AND LAND AREAS...

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL EXIT BY MIDNIGHT AS A
VERY ROBUST STORM SYSTEM OFFSHORE LA TRACKS QUICKLY EAST...INTO
THE NORTHEAST GULF AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN ACROSS NORTHERN FL AROUND
DAY BREAK. THIS SYSTEM SPRAWLS ACROSS ALL OF OUR WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES INCLUDING OUR COASTAL WATERS...WITH A PLETHORA
OF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.

LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...TRACKING THE
SYSTEM EAST AND ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW LEVEL JET...INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR... AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THESE ALL SUPPORT
THE CURRENT FORECAST OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...HEAVY RAIN...AND
INCREASING WINDS. THE FORECASTS IN PLACE HANDLE THIS WELL ALTHOUGH
WILL UPDATE SHORTLY TO ADJUST SOME OF THE EARLY EVENING
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
17/00Z-17/24Z. VFR CONDITIONS GIVE WAY AFTER MIDNIGHT TO
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH VCSH/SHRA AND BRIEF IFR IN TSRA IN A 09Z-
12Z WINDOW AS A ROBUST FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
TERMINALS CLEAR TO VFR AFT 14Z-16Z. WINDS INCREASE AND BCMG VERY
GUSTY AS THEY SHIFT TO NW. AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS FOR WIND/TSRA
MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE MORNING. ANTICIPATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AROUND THE TIME OF FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 800 PM. WINDS OFFSHORE ARE ALREADY INCREASING AND SHIFTING. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO GO DOWN HILL QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH GALE WARNING OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
DROP TO ONLY ADVISORIES IN THE AFTERNOON THEN SLOWLY END SUN NIGHT
OR EARLY MON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / 243 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

..STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
..GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...
..COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY SUNDAY...
..HIGH WIND ADVISORY SUNDAY...
..LAKE WIND ADVISORY SUNDAY...
..HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND
SUNDAY...

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND SUNDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS
GIVING US PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD FLORIDA. THE
WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS JUST NOW MOVING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING THIS LOW RAPIDLY TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 18
HOURS. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA...A ROBUST LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY JET OF 40-60 KNOTS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LLJ COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. SPC HAS
PLACED MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST SYSTEM THAT MOVED
THROUGH ON FRIDAY...THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...SUNNY
SKIES AND COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE REGION.

LONG TERM(SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
OPEN ATLANTIC WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SUPPORT COOL DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. DURING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE FAST SOUTHERN STREAM
WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA WITH AN ATTENDANT
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
IN ITS WAKE WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH MID WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA...WITH LITTLE IMPACT WITH COOL DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING.

DURING THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW AND
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST INTO SOUTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BRINGING WITH IT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SOME WITH THE TRACK/TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH THE MODELS
STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES WITHIN SUCH A FAST FLOW
REGIME THIS WINTER...SO FOR NOW WILL USE A BLEND AND DEPICT A SLOW
INCREASE IN POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WAIT TO SEE IF BETTER
CONTINUITY DEVELOPS AMONG THE MODELS IN THE COMING DAY.

PLEASANT COOL DRY WEATHER WILL RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST ON
SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM AS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN RETURNING FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND
INTO THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS CHANGE LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION. MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CONVECTION AFTER 17/06Z. STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
THAT MAY WARRANT LOCAL AIRPORT WIND WARNINGS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MARINE...WINDS WILL START OUT IN THE 10 KNOT RANGE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY INCREASING
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. THIS WIND
FIELD WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD THE COASTLINE
AFTER 17/06Z. WINDS INSIDE TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS BUT STILL REACHING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAKING IT
VERY DANGEROUS FOR ANY BOATERS IN THE AREA. STRONG ONSHORE WIND FLOW
WILL ALSO PRODUCE A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH
SURF ALONG THE WEST COAST BEACHES. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
LATE SUNDAY WITH WINDS DECREASING BUT WILL TAKE MORE TIME FOR THE
SEAS TO ABATE...SO WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE OUTER
WATERS UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL MODERATE BY
TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS 2-4 FEET THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN FURTHER IMPROVING TO 2 FEET OR
LESS.

FIRE WEATHER...HIGH DISPERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH GUSTY
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
DISPERSION INDICES DECREASE ON MONDAY...BUT WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD DROP TO
THE MID 30S FOR SOME OF THE INLAND AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  65  67  46  62 /  90  40  10   0
FMY  68  74  49  66 /  90  60  10  10
GIF  64  69  44  63 /  90  50  10   0
SRQ  66  69  48  63 /  90  40  10   0
BKV  63  67  39  62 /  90  40   0   0
SPG  65  68  50  61 /  90  40  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA.

     HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE-
     COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-
     INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND
     LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-POLK-
     SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD
DATA SUPPORT...007/DOUGHERTY

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
120 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-171500-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
120 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS MORNIGN. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
ELEVATED SURF CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MAINTAINING A THREAT OF
HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS BEING REQUESTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING HOURS.

MROCZKA

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