EF0 tornado, Wiley, Colorado, May 30, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
340 PM MDT Tue May 30 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Tue May 30 2023

Key Messages:

1) A few strong to severe storms are likely over the far eastern
plains the rest of this afternoon and early evening with very strong
winds the primary threat.

2) Scattered strong to severe storms will be likely tomorrow
afternoon over all of the plains, with all severe modes possible.
Heavy rains also likely over plains.

3) Locally heavy rains possible in the mtns tomorrow raising the
risk for burn scar flooding.

Currently...

High based shower activity was noted over the mtns and San Luis
Valley at 2 pm. In addition, thunderstorms were developing along the
I-25 corridor region, with the strongest storms down along the
southern I-25 corridor region.

Convective scale parameters were indicating CAPE was rather
significant over the plains, with sfc based CAPE well over 3000 over
the far eastern plains. Deep shear was quite weak to non-existent
(not registering on the SPC meso page). T/Td spreads over the eastern
plains were showing depressions of about 30 degrees.

Rest of Today into Tonight

Main concern in the immediate short term is the potential for severe
thunderstorms capable of producing very strong wind gusts to develop
over the plains as the convection over the general I-25 region push
east into the deeper moisture. Given the shear is pretty much
nonexistent, storms should quickly develop upscale and develop
strong outflows as the rapidly intensify and push east. Given the
high CAPE values, intense convective winds will be likely given the
high Dcape values. At this time it appears the strongest convection
should be out of the region around 8 pm

One concern for later tonight will be how much low clouds push back
into the state of CO due to the convection? Models show that the far
eastern counties will see low cigs, but the remainder of the plains
will remain relatively clear.

All guidance later tonight keep winds at a brisk southerly
component, and this will likely continue to bring up low level
moisture to the region which will set the stage for tomorrows
weather.

Tomorrow...

Thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon and there is a good
chance that they will be strong to severe. A potent disturbance over
the southwest US will continue to push towards the region. This
system will advect low level moisture into the region, and this
combined with sufficient solar radiation and cool temps aloft will
allow for some hefty CAPE to develop over the entire area by
tomorrow afternoon. Unlike today where deep shear is very weak, the
shear will be modest by tomorrow afternoon, and this along with the
CAPE, and the upward vertical motion supported by the approaching
Pacific system, will allow strong to severe thunderstorms to
develop. At this time the greatest threat will be large hail and
winds, but there will be a tornado threat also, and this tornado
threat may be enhanced on how outflow boundaries from todays
convection affect the region tomorrow.

CAPE values tomorrow will be rather high over the region, with
values likely in the 2000 to 3000 range by afternoon. This CAPE will
allow for quite a bit of severe convection, so I anticipate a very
busy day in the office tomorrow. Watch boxes will more than likely
be issued for the region.

With increasing moisture in the mountains, thunderstorms will be
scattered, and they will likely be capable of locally heavy rain, so
flash flooding of burn scars may be enhanced tomorrow. In addition,
storms will likely not be moving all that quickly, so this will
increase the potential for flooding over the burn scars. \/Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Tue May 30 2023

Key Messages:

1) Increasing chances of precipitation from west to east on Thursday
   with potential for stronger storms over the far southeast Plains.

2) Cooler and unsettled weather pattern developing Friday and
   persisting into early next week.

3) Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding potential increasing
   through the weekend.

Wednesday night-Thursday night...Modest south to southwest flow
aloft remains progged across the region as a compact upper low
across the Southern Great Basin slowly weakens as it lifts north and
east into the Four Corners region Thursday evening. Ongoing strong
to severe storms across the southeast Plains Wednesday afternoon
move into western Kansas through the evening, with the potential for
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continuing over and
near the higher terrain through the late evening and overnight
hours, within weak diffluent flow aloft. Increasing mid level
moisture and uvv ahead of the Four Corners system will allow for
increasing chances of shower and thunderstorm develop over and near
the higher terrain Thursday afternoon and evening.  There will be
the potential for stronger to severe storms across the far southeast
Plains, where enhanced southeast low level flow will keep enough
moisture and shear in place. Temperatures on Thursday look to be
near seasonal to slightly below seasonal norms.

Friday-Sunday...Weak upper low continues to slowly drift north and
east across south central and into southeastern Colorado through the
day Saturday and into the Southern High Plains on Sunday. This leads
to a weak but generally deep easterly flow pattern across the region
which will keep daily chances of showers and storms across the area.
With models indicating increasing available moisture with PWATS
approaching 150-200 percent of normal, there will be the potential
for locally heavy rainfall, as well as increasing chances of flash
flooding, especially over and near the higher terrain, where weak
easterly upslope flow will lead storm training. With the cool upper
level pattern, there could also be some light to moderate snow
accumulations across the higher peaks through the weekend, with
temperatures expected to be some 5-15 degrees below early June
norms.

Monday-Tuesday...A messy and weak flow pattern remains in the offing
into next week, with weak upper ridging being indicated across the
Rockies. With moisture expected to remain in place, there will
continue to be daily chances of showers and storms, with the
greatest coverage over and near the higher terrain, along with
temperatures remain generally below seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Tue May 30 2023

Isolated high based thundershowers will be possible at KCOS and KPUB
late this afternoon and early evening, but overall I anticipate VFR
conditions. For tonight, guidance keeps skies VFR through tomorrow
morning, however I am a bit concerned that moist outflow from storms
well east of KCOS and KPUB may push back towards the mtns affecting
the two taf sites. For now I plan to keep VFR tonight, but we may
need to adjust this if the outflow materializes.

For tomorrow, thunderstorms are expected at all 3 taf sites during
the afternoon time period as low level moisture will increase and a
disturbance moves towards the region.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1138 AM MDT Tue May 30 2023

COZ058>089-093>099-311745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1138 AM MDT Tue May 30 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Intense damaging winds associated with thunderstorms will be
possible today over the far eastern plains. The best time for
severe thunderstorms will be between 3 pm and 8 pm. The greatest
threat area will be eastern Kiowa county, Prowers county and Baca
county. In addition to the damaging winds, large hail will also be
possible. The tornado threat at this time is very low, but if a
storm can remain isolated, the tornado threat will increase.

Other strong to locally severe storms may be possible over
western Kiowa county, Bent county and central and eastern Las
Animas county. Over the remainder of the region, thunderstorms
will be isolated at best, but they may contain locally gusty
winds, which may gusts to 50 mph.

Thunderstorms which develop over the far eastern plains will be
capable of very heavy rain which may cause flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Several severe thunderstorms appear likely across the eastern
plains on Wednesday. All severe threats are possible, including
damaging winds, large hail and a couple of tornadoes. The greatest
severe weather threat area will be over all of the eastern
plains. Locally heavy rain will also be possible across the plains
on this day.

For Thursday, the severe weather threat will continue, and the
heavy rain threat will increase. All of the region may see locally
heavy rain on this day as moisture increased over the entire
region.

Cooler weather will move into the region late in the week but the
weather will remain quite unsettled, and locally heavy rains will
be likely, In addition, strong storms will continue to be a
threat, but the intensity of the storms may be less due to the
cooler temperatures.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

Hodanish

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
344 PM MDT Tue May 30 2023

COZ093-094-097-302215-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
344 PM MDT Tue May 30 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Otero,
northeastern Las Animas and southern Bent Counties through 415 PM
MDT...

At 344 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles east of Higbee, or 21 miles southeast of North La Junta, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Las Animas, Higbee and John Martin Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3746 10333 3764 10365 3811 10323 3789 10278
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 211DEG 15KT 3782 10319

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

kam

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