F0 tornado, Cedar Pt, Colorado, June 3, 2002

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
315 AM MDT MON JUN 03 2002

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: QUITE AN ACTIVE NIGHT WITH NEAR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NERN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SHOWED A WAVE MOVING
NORTH THRU E-CENTRAL CO WHICH INTERACTED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESS ACROSS SERN CO. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
HAS DIED OUT...BUT STILL SOME ISOLD -TSRA ACROSS THE FAR NERN
PLAINS.  SAT PICS SHOWING STRATUS ADVECTING SWRD ACROSS NERN CO. ONE
BATCH FROM AKO SOUTHWARD TO AROUND LIC AND ANOTHER JUST MOVING INTO
WELD COUNTY FREOM THE WY BORDER. OUTFLOW FROM PLAINS STORMS MOVING
INTO URBAN COORIDOR ATTM AND SHOULD BRING SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP INTO
THE 50S BEFORE DAWN. LOW LVL MSTR WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW/PATCHY IN
PLACES...ESP URBAN COORIDOR AND SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING MUCH OF A LOW
LVL INVERSON. SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK OUT LATER THIS MORNING WITH
AMPLE HEATING FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN. MESOETA SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAPES AROUND 1500J/KG WITH PRETTY DECENT SHEAR PROFILE.
FURTHER EAST...STRATUS A LITTLE THICKER AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW
LVL INVERSIONS FURTHER EAST...WILL NOT BREAK OUT UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY. AMS GETS SATURATED THIS EVENING WITH SECONDARY SURGE AND
ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW. WITH THE UPPER TROF MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST...MOST PLACES IN CWA WILL BE GETTING WET TNT/TUE. SNOW LEVEL
FOR THE MTNS STILL LOOKS AROUND 9000 FEET BY EARLY TUE AM AS 700MB
TEMPS DESCEND TO NEAR 0C. SOME ACCUMLATIONS IN THE HIR MTNS(3-6 A
GOOD PLACE TO START) NO HILITES AT THIS POINT...BUT SOMETHING THAT
BEARS WATCHING FOR THE HIGHER PASSES. MOST OF THE FOOTHILL LOCATIONS
WILL BE RAIN...EXCEPT FOR A MIX/LIGHT SNOW ACCUM IN THE HIGHER
AREAS.  CLEARING AND DRYING TUE NIGHT AS TROF AXIS MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN STRONG WED-FRI WITH A VERY DRY
AMS WITH A GENERAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPTED TO YANK THE ISOLD TS FROM
THU/FRI BUT THIS IS JUNE. BY THE WEEKEND...A STRONGER NW FLOW
PATTERN SETS UP WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS. ENTREKIN

.DEN...NONE

COZ030>051-032000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
1000 AM MDT MON JUN 3 2002

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE  BOULDER     BROOMFIELD  CLEAR CREEK  DENVER
DOUGLAS   ELBERT    GILPIN      GRAND       JACKSON      JEFFERSON
LARIMER   LINCOLN   LOGAN       MORGAN      PARK         PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK  SUMMIT    WASHINGTON  WELD

SYNOPSIS:  A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD MOVED BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING IN ITS
WAKE.  IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...LOCATED OVER
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING...WILL SLIP INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AROUND
NOON AND ALONG A BOUNDARY JUST TO THE EAST OF DENVER THAT EXTENDED
NORTH TOWARDS FORT MORGAN...AND SOUTHWEST TOWARDS CASTLE ROCK. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH FURTHER WEST...AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY FORM ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...FROM JUST EAST OF DENVER TO NEAR
CASTLE ROCK...THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES TOWARDS THE FOOTHILLS. SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.  DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...ALTHOUGH A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO
IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY AFTER 12 PM.

THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY ABOVE 9500 FEET.

OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...CLOUDY AND COOL WITH LIGHT RAIN LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

COOPER

COZ030>051-032100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
1230 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2002

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE  BOULDER     BROOMFIELD  CLEAR CREEK  DENVER
DOUGLAS   ELBERT    GILPIN      GRAND       JACKSON      JEFFERSON
LARIMER   LINCOLN   LOGAN       MORGAN      PARK         PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK  SUMMIT    WASHINGTON  WELD

SYNOPSIS:  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...LOCATED OVER
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING...WILL SLIP INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
...INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT 12 PM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE
FOOTHILLS OF LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES...WITH ISOLATED STORMS
FORMING ALONG MONUMENT RIDGE SOUTH OF DENVER.  A BOUNDARY THAT WAS
LOCATED JUST EAST OF DENVER...HAS BEEN SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE WEST
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR THROUGH 4 PM.

AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARDS THE FOOTHILLS...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM AROUND CASTLE ROCK NORTH TO FORT
COLLINS.  A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.  THE STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHEAST...SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.

DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...ALTHOUGH A
WEAK TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR AFTER 2 PM.

THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY ABOVE 9500 FEET.

OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...CLOUDY AND COOL WITH LIGHT RAIN LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

COOPER