EF0 tornado, Dancy to Cochrane, Alabama, February 23, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
420 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...
Through Tonight.

Another warm and humid day across central Alabama with
temperatures rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s. A wedge front
was still positioned across northeast Alabama where Gadsden was
still in the 50s. A band of showers and thunderstorms developed
over west Alabama along a low level convergence zone. This
activity was ahead of the main thunderstorm activity located over
Mississippi. An area of high shear and very unstable air resides
over west Alabama and much of Mississippi. A band of strong to
severe storms still expected to move into northwest Alabama around
5 pm and spread eastward. All modes of severe weather expected
with tornadoes possible in the high shear environment. Best chance
for tornadoes will be west of I-65. The flood watch for the
northern counties will continue overnight as any heavy rainfall
could lead to flooding. The axis of storms should be near or just
east of the I-20/59 corridor by midnight, but in a weakening
state. The remaining band of showers will be across the far
southeast counties by sunrise.

58/rose

.LONG TERM...
Sunday through Friday.

We will continue to see some of the leftover rain in the far
southeast through 9 to 10 am Sunday, but then we can say goodbye to
the rain for a few days. Sunday and Monday will be dry as high
pressure will be in control. Much of Tuesday will be dry as well,
but we will begin to see an increase in clouds as the high begins to
to exit the region and the southerly flow begins to increase across
the area once again.

By Tuesday night, low pressure develops along the gulf coast and
slides slowly across the area. This will be the first wave of
several upper level wave that will slide through the area through
Friday ahead of the next cold front that will work into the area
Friday night and move out by Saturday morning.

Synoptically this pattern makes sense and will be the overall
forecast for the time being, but there are some model discrepancies
in regards to position of the main vorticity max and support of the
system. The more bullish system, the GFS, has the main support in
the north and drags the front through with very little wrap around
behind it. This would entail a fairly dry weekend for the extended.
The Euro, brings things a touch further south and therefore brings
the upper level low a little further south. This would provide more
clouds and some linger light rain into Saturday. Right now either
scenario is plausible and will need to monitor over the next few
days  the trends of each solution. But for now the main focus will
be on the system moving the area through tonight.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Some clearing has begun to take place at our southern and western
sites this afternoon due to placement of the warm front. Winds
and the chances for showers will increase through the afternoon
into this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Most of the
activity will be between 21Z this afternoon until 10-11Z Sunday. Have
included showers and VCTS as early as 21Z for KTCL while KASN,
KANB, KMGM, and KTOI will see this activity a little later
(04-05Z). Did include PROB30 TSRA for our northern sites beginning
at the specified onset time and continuing for a few hours.
Amendments in timing could be needed as storms starts developing.
Wind gusts will generally range between 15-25kts and possibly
higher at times. Shower/storm activity will end west to east
overnight. Currently have activity dissipating at KTCL by 07Z and
at 11-12Z for KTOI. Winds will remain elevated, generally
10-15kts, at all sites even with the dissipation of
showers/storms.

07

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A prolonged period of rainfall will continue through Sunday
morning, with a strong storm system expected to move through
Central Alabama tonight. Very wet conditions are expected,
especially across the northern half of the area. Drier conditions
return to the area for at least a couple days to start next week.
There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     53  62  31  59  34 /  80  10   0   0   0
Anniston    54  62  33  60  36 /  80  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  52  62  34  61  38 /  90  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  52  64  34  62  39 /  90   0   0   0   0
Calera      53  64  35  61  38 /  80  10   0   0   0
Auburn      59  66  37  62  40 /  80  20   0   0   0
Montgomery  59  68  37  66  40 /  80  10   0   0   0
Troy        60  67  38  65  41 /  80  20   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Flood Watch through late tonight for the following counties:
Bibb...Blount...Calhoun...Cherokee...Clay...Cleburne...Etowah...
Fayette...Jefferson...Lamar...Marion...Pickens...Shelby...St.
Clair...Talladega...Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
947 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

ALZ011>015-017>050-241900-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
947 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...through Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are likely later today and tonight as a line of
thunderstorms moves across Central Alabama. All modes of severe
weather are possible including tornadoes, damaging winds, and large
hail. At this time, the main threat appears to begin around 5 PM in
the northwest and may continue through 3 AM in the east. However,
isolated severe storms may develop across west Alabama this
afternoon.

Areas of locally heavy rainfall will remain possible today and
tonight. Therefore, the flood potential remains high. Any heavy rain
on already saturated grounds will only enhance the flood potential.
The main flood threat area will be near and north of an Aliceville
to Calera to Wedowee line. Elsewhere, minor flooding is possible if
showers and storms move over the same areas more than once.

Central Alabama rivers will experience rises over the next several
days. River stages will reach into the Minor and Moderate flood
levels. Check the latest river flood products for specific information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Central Alabama rivers will continue to experience rises the next
several days. River stages will reach into the Minor and Moderate
flood levels. Check the latest river flood products for specific
information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management will likely be
needed this afternoon and tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
505 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

ALZ011-013-014-232345-
Fayette AL-Winston AL-Marion AL-
505 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARION...WESTERN WINSTON AND
NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CST...

At 505 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles north of Weston to near Hamilton to
Lamar County Airport. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Hamilton, Winfield, Haleyville, Guin, Hackleburg, Brilliant, Glen
Allen, Gu-
Win, Brinn, Lake Buttahatchee, Needmore, Bear Creek, Twin, Natural
Bridge, Tucker, Posey Field Airport, Wayside, Upper Bear Creek
Reservoir, Delmar and Piney Grove.

LAT...LON 3431 8757 3404 8759 3400 8760 3400 8764
      3389 8763 3384 8765 3384 8794 3431 8793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 267DEG 35KT 3427 8799 3407 8798 3386 8811

25/Owen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
529 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

ALZ011-014-015-240000-
Walker AL-Winston AL-Marion AL-
529 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WALKER...
NORTHEASTERN MARION AND WINSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CST...

At 528 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Phil Campbell to near Lake Buttahatchee to
near Brilliant. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Haleyville, Lynn, Arley, Double Springs, Brilliant, Addison, Nauvoo,
Curry, Houston Recreational Area, Camp McDowell, Nesmith, Ashbank,
Brushy Lake, Poplar Springs, Ashridge, Falls City, Lake Buttahatchee,
Moreland, Smith Lake and Helicon.

LAT...LON 3430 8711 3399 8711 3399 8715 3397 8714
      3396 8711 3394 8711 3401 8777 3415 8774
      3431 8780
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 269DEG 40KT 3428 8772 3416 8768 3404 8773

25/Owen