EF2 tornado, Gnatville to Spring Garden, Alabama, March 15, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
730 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION.

ANOTHER MESOSCALE COMPLEX CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE ALABAMA
MISSISSIPPI BORDER WILL AFFECT THE EXTREME COUNTIES IN THE NORTHERN
CWA.  THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY...AS PER
TYPICAL...WITH GENERATING AND ADVECTING THESE FEATURES...SO SOME
MODEL OUTPUT COULD BE UNDERPLAYING EVENTS OF THIS MORNING.  WILL
WAIT TO SEE IF THE HOURLY 13 KM RUC CAN HANDLE ONGOING EVENTS.  MAIN
CONCERN AT THIS HOUR IS ANY REDEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OR THE
POSSIBILITY OF BACKFILLING CONVECTION.  BEGINNING TO SEE THAT TAKE
PLACE NOW AS CONVECTION IS FIRING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE COMPLEX.
THIS HAS PROMPTED THE WATCH AREA THE HAVE BEEN PLACED EARLIER THIS
MORNING UNTIL MID MORNING.

REALLY IMPOSSIBLE FOR NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...EVEN FOR NONHYDROSTATIC
MODELS...TO GENERATE THOSE MESO DETAILS.  ALSO A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT
THE INTENSITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT RIDES JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST.
IF THE LOW BOMBS OUT...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK SUFFICIENTLY TO
CREATE AN ENHANCED AREA OF HELICITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS COUPLED WITH HIGHER CAPES COULD LEAD TO
A MINI OUTBREAK OF SUPERCELLULAR STORMS IN THE DAYTIME HEATING.
SAYING ALL THIS WITH LITTLE REGARD TO WARM AIR ALOFT THAT WILL BE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  WE WILL BE AT THE MERCY OF
NUMERICAL AND LAPS GUIDANCE TO PLACE THAT WARM AIR CAP CORRECTLY.
THAT WILL BE A SHOW STOPPER ESPECIALLY SOUTH.  A GOOD INDICATION
WILL BE WATCHING THE AREAS OF NONCONCECTIVE CU...BUT WE WILL NOT
HAVE THAT LUXURY UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING.  WE WILL ALSO BE DOING AN
18Z UPPER AIR RELEASE TO HELP WITH INITIALIZING EVENTS FOR
LATER...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM OF BMX.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NEW COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AL MAY AFFECT
KANB AROUND 14-15Z. STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN MS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KTS
UNTIL 00Z.  IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL BE ON INCREASE AND DRAW MVFR
SC ACROSS THE REGION.  BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND MIXING WILL SEE CIGS
INCREASE TO NEAR 3 KFT AROUND 15Z AND THEN VFR AFTER 20Z.  HARD TO
PINPOINT EXACT LOCATIONS OF STORM REDEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE OF KANB AND
WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

STEFKOVICH

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY FROM 9 AM UNTIL 7 PM FOR ALL ZONES AND
COUNTIES.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
610 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 AM     HAIL             LINEVILLE               33.31N 85.75W
03/15/2008  M0.50 INCH       CLAY               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GGOGGINS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
858 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

ALZ015-151445-
WALKER-
858 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR WALKER COUNTY UNTIL 945 AM CDT...

AT 856 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NEAR JASPER...MOVING EAST AT 55
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  LYNNS PARK.
  SIPSEY.
  EMPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1011 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HIGHLAND LAKE           33.89N 86.42W
03/15/2008                   BLOUNT             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POSSIBLE TORNADO...DAMAGE IN THE VICINITY OF HIGHLAND
            LAKES.

&&

SUNGER

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