NWS Riverton, WY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 24, 5:00 PM MST, 2 hours 25 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Jun 24, 5:00 PM MST, 2 hours 25 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
600 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms become more widespread
through Wednesday evening and overnight as a weather system
moves into the state from Utah. These showers and storms
continue to move east through the forecast area Thursday
morning.
- Gusty outflow wind 40 to 50 mph, brief heavy rain, and small
hail will be the primary hazards associated with Wednesday
night and Thursday morning showers and thunderstorms.
- Another round of showers and thunderstorms crosses the region
Thursday afternoon with gusty wind and small hail the main
hazards.
- A weather system moves into the Pacific Northwest Friday and
heads toward Wyoming over the weekend. This leads to gusty
southwest wind Friday, which elevates fire weather conditions,
followed by cooler temperatures, precipitation chances, and
possibly some high elevation mountain snow over the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1152 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026
A few adjustments with the daytime forecast update. Firstly,
strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon
and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has nudged an area of
marginal and slight risks further into central WY. The latest
convective outlook now includes Riverton, Thermopolis, and
Worland with the main hazard being large hail. Southwestern WY
has also seen an adjustment in the marginal risk. Rock Springs
has now been included with the main concern being dry
thunderstorms which could produce strong gusty winds in excess
of 55 mph. Otherwise, not much of the forecast has changed.
Similar to the previous discussion the area with the greatest
chances of seeing a strong to severe storm remains east of the
Divide. CAMs have highlighted an area from the southern Bighorn
Basin to the Wind River Basin and into Natrona County. As
mentioned in the previous discussion the timing for the
strongest storm development looks to be in the mid afternoon.
The second round of showers and thunderstorms pushes across
central and southern WY after 6 MDT. There remains a chance for
an isolated strong to severe storm with this second push but
chances will quickly decrease after sunset.
Thursday continues to look like another active day with
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Similar to the previous
discussion, morning cloud cover will be the main caveat.
Currently, it is looking like there should be some clearing
during the mid to late morning especially across central and
eastern WY. This window is quite limited with likely only a few
hours of scattered to broken cloud cover. However, this may be
enough to aid in fueling storms as they begin developing by the
late morning and early afternoon. The main hazards with any of
these storms will be strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and
large hail. Friday is looking active as well with another round
of showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and
evening. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out
Friday afternoon and evening. For the weekend and past, the
previous discussion remains on track with not much additional
information to add.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Things are still shaping up to be rather active across the area over
the next several days. And in true Wyoming fashion, we may pass
through a few seasons over the next few days.
The main concern today will be thunderstorms as a shortwave moves
across the area, and some of them have the potential to be
severe. There will be some storms around in the afternoon, but a
bulk of the activity may end up being in the evening and even
overnight hours. The risk of stronger storms would likely be
before sunset though, when instability will be the greatest. Our
partners at the Storm Prediction Center have largely kept the
Marginal Risk status quo, running largely east of the Worland to
Hiland line, and covering Johnson, Natrona and eastern Washakie
Counties. The area of most concern is Natrona County, where a
slight risk is in effect. This makes sense given CAPE is
maximized here (as high as 1500 J/Kg) as well as lifted indices
(as low as minus 4). The strongest storms at this point should
remain East of the the area over Eastern Wyoming, but it is a
bit too close for comfort. And there is another area of concern,
this one across southwestern Wyoming, although the main and
probably only threat here would be strong wind gusts. We will
now discuss the individual threats with the storms: large hail,
strong wind, tornadoes and heavy rain.
Large Hail...The main threat of this looks to be in our eastern
counties, mainly Johnson and Natrona Counties. This chance maximizes
in southern Johnson and Natrona Counties though. Conditions are good
for this as model Skew Ts show as much as 50 knots of 0 to 6
kilometer shear with large lapse rates of almost 9C / Km. There will
be a cap on the atmosphere initially though, so this looks like a
later show, with most worst possibly in the evening. This area also
has a Conditional Instability Group Level 1, meaning hail up to golf
ball size or higher. However, there is Conditional Instability Group
2 just to the east of the Casper, which means the chance of baseball
sized hail. Chances of large hail do drop further west, but almost
any storm to the East of the Divide could have small hail. The
greatest threat of this should end around midnight as the we lose
the heating of the day and instability.
Strong Wind Gusts...As usual, this will be a threat with just about
any shower or thunderstorm, this is Wyoming after all. There are two
main areas of concern. The first is in the area similar to the large
hail threat, and this area has the most instability. There is
another area of concern though. And this is across southwestern
Wyoming. This is more of a little green blob scenario as the
shortwave approaches this evening, with soundings showing very well
defined inverted V soundings resulting in some high based showers
and thunderstorms. Lapse rates are very steep (as much as 9C/km)
with dew point depressions over 50 degrees in some locations. The
result will likely be some wind gusts over 55 mph at times in any
thunderstorm, shower or even cumulus cloud when it collapses. The
main threat of this will be in the afternoon and evening, then
decreasing later in the evening as the atmosphere cools.
Tornadoes...This again is by far the least threat, but it is not
zero. There are things going for it, mainly the deep directional
and speed shear. In addition, cloud bases will be lowering into the
evening as the moisture increases. The main factor against it
is that with slow 700 millibar flow, there may be more storm
interactions and not as many stand alone supercells. The best
chance of this would be in eastern Natrona County, but even here
the chance is only 2 percent, with chances decreasing further
west.
Heavy Rain...Most storms, but especially the ones East of the Divide
will have the potential of this. Precipitable water values rise two
over an inch in some locations Wednesday evening, and this gets my
attention as this is 200 percent of our climatological value. Dew
points will also get fairly high for these parts, rising into the
50s in our eastern counties. Flow will also be easterly up to around
700 millibars, bringing in additional moisture. One mitigating
factor is that there will be decent flow at 500 millibars, anywhere
from 20 to 30 knots, so the storms should have some movement. It is
also been very dry across most of the area, so there is room in the
soil to soak up some moisture. There will still be the chance for
some localized flooding, but it should not be widespread. The best
chance would be East of the Divide, where upslope flow and the
greatest moisture will be found.
More strong storms will be possible on Thursday. However, there will
be more uncertainty here. Another shortwave will be moving across
the area. The limiting factor may be cloud cover and showers that
will linger across the area during the morning hours. This may
limit surface heating and instability somewhat and decrease the
chance of stronger storms. There will still be a decent amount
of shear present though. So, if there can be some clearing, we
could see another round of strong to severe storms. This will
again be in areas similar to today, largely East of a Greybull
to Worland to Hiland line. But the chance of stronger storms
looks less than today at this time.
Looking further out, Friday should be a lull with shortwave ridging
over the area and less storms. Attention then turns to an upper
level low that will be moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest
Friday night and moving into the northern Rockies this weekend.
Recent model trends have weakened the system a bit and also shifted
to low a bit further to the west. This has decreased the QPF across
the area. The system has also trended a bit warmer, so potential
snowfall amounts in the west look less. The 700 millibar
temperatures now look to bottom out around minus 1 or so, which
would put snow levels around 8000 feet later Saturday night and
Sunday. Nevertheless, locations above 9000 feet will likely see a
light accumulation of snow during this time. This includes anyone
going over Togwotee Pass as well, although most snow would melt on
roads. So, the active weather pattern will continue across western
and central Wyoming for the next several days.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage
across Wyoming, and potentially impact all terminals through the
evening and overnight. Storm coverage is expected to increase from
southwest to east/northeast, so the first terminal to potentially
see showers or thunderstorms is KRKS followed by all other
terminals. PROB30s have been maintained where confidence in timing
and/or direct impacts is more uncertain. Strong to severe
thunderstorms - mainly due to outflow wind gusts - are possible,
mainly prior to 06Z at KCPR, KRKS, KRIW, KLND, and KWRL, with
frequent lightning, gusty 50kt winds, and hail being the main
hazards. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is forecast
again on Thursday at most terminals. KJAC is expected to see
showers or thunderstorms first around 14Z. Showers and
thunderstorms then increase in coverage through Thursday morning
and early afternoon. Any thunderstorms on Thursday could have
gusty 40kts to 50kt winds and small hail.
Outside of shower and thunderstorm activity, most terminals will
remain VFR this TAF period. KCPR is the exception terminal, where
MVFR clouds are forecast with prevailing light rain followed by
MVFR ceilings persist through 16Z/Thursday. Breezy winds
between 10kts and 15kts are expected through 03Z/Thursday.
KRKS, KRIW, KPNA, and KBPI are forecast to have frequent 20kt to
30kt wind gusts the remainder of Wednesday evening.
Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
UPDATE...Dziewaltowski
DISCUSSION...Hattings
AVIATION...CNJ/Gerhardt