Tornado and Flash Flooding in New Mexico, June 24 to 26, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1217 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1204 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- There will be a moderate risk of heat induced illness across
  lower elevation areas each of the next seven days, except for
  localized major heat risk in some southern and eastern locations
  Wednesday, Saturday, and Sunday.

- Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage today and
  Thursday, when there will be a risk of severe storms on the
  eastern plains, and a mix of wet and dry storms west of the
  central mountain chain. Storms with lighter rain, lightning, and
  gusty downburst winds will linger into Friday.

- Dry and windy weather will develop this weekend, increasing the
  threat of rapid fire spread across much of northern and central
  New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 144 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

A busy day is ahead for the Land of Enchantment with varying
hazards across the state. The upper level high is expected to
weaken slightly to 595-596dam and sag just a bit southward today.
This will allow mid level Pacific moisture to round the high into
NM. As convective temperature is reached, isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area.
Unfortunately, low levels will remain very dry and large
inverted-V forecast soundings suggest between 1000-2000 J/kg of
DCAPE. Thus, gusty and erratic winds in excess of 40-50 mph will
be possible with any virga shower or dry thunderstorm this
afternoon. Reduced visibility in blowing dust is possible. PWATs
will continue to increase through the evening to between 0.8 and
1.0 inches as moisture continues to stream in and top-down
moistening occurs. Therefore, any rainfall persisting from shower
and thunderstorm activity this evening will have an increasingly
better chance at reaching the ground. Even so, amounts will be
minimal. Given the continued dry vegetation across much of central
and western NM and lack of precipitation expected today, the
concern is that several new fires may start due to lightning.

Meanwhile across eastern NM, severe weather will be the concern.
Early this morning, several thunderstorms are ongoing across
southeast CO and will just skirt northeast NM. As those storms
continue to trek east-southeastward and grow upscale, an
associated outflow boundary will slide into NE NM and press
southward through the morning hours, eventually backing up to the
east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mtns. Additionally, an earlier
outflow boundary surged westward and brought increased low level
moisture into eastern NM, and the aforementioned boundary will
only reinforce the low level moisture across the area. With moist
upslope flow, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
around 2pm along or just east of the Central Mountain Chain.
Storms will then shift east or southeast across the plains through
the afternoon and evening where 40-50kt of 0-6km bulk shear and
1500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE exists. Severe storms are expected with
large hail and damaging wind gusts. It’s unclear how far south the
outflow boundary from tonight’s storms will push, but the favored
severe storm area will likely be along the boundary. Some CAMs
currently paint that area from between LVS and CQC southeastward
across Guadalupe, De Baca, Curry and Roosevelt counties. Most
storms are expected to weaken or move into west Texas by the
midnight hour.

The upper high will continue to weaken and flatten on Thursday
allowing a direct path for moisture into NM. PWATs across the area
on Thursday will be between 0.85 to over an inch, which is above
normal for late June. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
erupt across much of the area with daytime heating and weak upper
level disturbances passing overhead. Storms will have a better
chance at producing wetting precipitation (>0.10”) but quick storm
motions (toward the east at 20-30 mph) will limit the rainfall at
any one location. Another outflow boundary will nose into
northeast NM Thursday evening. This boundary will be a focus for
additional strong to severe thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 144 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Drier air will begin to push into NM on Friday, but plenty of
moisture will remain for another round of showers and
thunderstorms. PWATs will remain above normal, so there will be a
chance for some to produce wetting rainfall, but storms will
likely produce gusty and erratic winds as well.

Much drier air will shift over NM Friday night into Saturday and
daytime mixing Saturday will scour out any remaining moisture.
Strong southwest winds will return Saturday afternoon with gusts
between 35 and 50 mph common. More of the same is expected for
Sunday afternoon.. Temperatures will be hot, with triple digit
readings across eastern NM.

Return flow looks to return Sunday night into Monday across
eastern NM, which will increase low level moisture across the
area. At least isolated storms should develop Monday afternoon,
despite much of the moisture mixing out. Elsewhere, dry and breezy
conditions will prevail. Moisture should make a bigger return
Monday night, setting the stage for more storms on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon
and evening, except for spottier activity over south central
areas. Some storms will most likely turn severe over northeast
and east central areas by producing large hail and damaging winds.
A few wind gusts up to 60 mph will also be possible from gusty
virga showers and mostly dry storms west of the central mountain
chain. The best chance of 60 mph wind gusts will be over northwest
NM, where brief periods of impactful blowing dust will be likely
until sunset. Some storms will probably will probably linger into
the late night hours over the eastern plains and near the Four
Corners.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 144 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

A fire growing pattern is expected over the next several days.
Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms are expected across
central and western NM today, with gusty and erratic winds with
any shower or storm. PWATs increase tonight into Thursday as
Pacific moisture continues to advect into NM, and additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected through Friday. Though
chances for wetting rain will increase, small footprints of
wetting rain are expected due to fast storm motions Thursday and
Friday. Severe thunderstorms with abundant lightning are expected
across eastern NM today, with more storms Thursday and Friday as
well. Following this period of thunderstorm activity, critical
fire weather conditions will return Saturday and Sunday. It’s
likely that any lightning-started fires will grow under the windy
and dry conditions over the weekend. Dry and breezy conditions
will continue into Monday across western and central NM, but
modest return flow will increase moisture across the southeast.
Better return flow will occur Monday night, increasing storm
chances for Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  94  60  91  60 /  20  50  30  30
Dulce...........................  92  47  87  46 /  20  50  20  40
Cuba............................  91  56  85  54 /  20  40  60  50
Gallup..........................  91  52  86  51 /  20  40  60  50
El Morro........................  90  53  84  53 /  20  30  60  60
Grants..........................  93  53  88  52 /  30  50  60  60
Quemado.........................  90  56  85  54 /  20  10  60  30
Magdalena.......................  91  63  89  61 /  30  10  60  40
Datil...........................  88  58  85  56 /  30  10  60  30
Reserve.........................  97  52  93  52 /  20  20  40  20
Glenwood........................ 102  59  98  58 /  10  10  30  20
Chama...........................  85  47  80  45 /  20  50  30  30
Los Alamos......................  90  61  84  60 /  10  30  60  30
Pecos...........................  92  56  87  55 /  10  40  30  20
Cerro/Questa....................  88  55  82  54 /  10  50  30  40
Red River.......................  79  47  73  46 /  20  50  30  40
Angel Fire......................  84  43  78  43 /  20  50  30  20
Taos............................  91  53  85  51 /   5  40  30  20
Mora............................  88  53  83  53 /  20  50  30  10
Espanola........................  97  59  91  57 /  10  30  60  30
Santa Fe........................  92  61  86  60 /   5  40  40  30
Santa Fe Airport................  95  59  90  57 /   5  30  50  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  98  68  93  65 /   5  10  70  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  99  64  94  62 /   5  10  70  30
Albuquerque Valley.............. 100  64  96  61 /   5  10  70  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  99  66  94  63 /   5  10  60  40
Belen........................... 100  63  97  59 /   5  10  70  40
Bernalillo......................  99  65  95  63 /   5  20  60  40
Bosque Farms....................  99  61  95  58 /   5  10  70  30
Corrales........................ 100  65  95  63 /   5  20  60  40
Los Lunas....................... 100  63  96  59 /   5  10  70  30
Placitas........................  96  65  91  64 /   5  20  60  40
Rio Rancho......................  99  65  94  62 /   5  20  60  40
Socorro......................... 102  69 100  66 /  10  10  40  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  94  61  88  59 /  10  20  60  30
Tijeras.........................  94  61  89  59 /   5  20  60  30
Edgewood........................  96  57  91  56 /  10  20  50  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  97  55  93  53 /  10  20  50  20
Clines Corners..................  92  56  88  56 /  20  20  30  20
Mountainair.....................  96  58  92  56 /  10  10  50  40
Gran Quivira....................  95  60  91  58 /   5  10  30  30
Carrizozo.......................  98  65  96  64 /   5   5  30  20
Ruidoso.........................  92  61  90  60 /  20  10  20  20
Capulin.........................  84  53  86  50 /  40  30  30  30
Raton...........................  90  53  90  52 /  30  30  20  20
Springer........................  90  55  91  55 /  40  40  20   5
Las Vegas.......................  90  56  88  56 /  40  50  20   5
Clayton.........................  86  62  94  58 /  10  20  30  40
Roy.............................  88  57  91  57 /  30  40  20   5
Conchas.........................  96  62 100  63 /  20  50  20  10
Santa Rosa......................  94  61  96  62 /  20  30  30  20
Tucumcari.......................  96  65 101  65 /  20  50  20  20
Clovis..........................  99  66 100  66 /  10  50  20  20
Portales........................ 100  66 102  67 /  10  50  20  20
Fort Sumner.....................  98  64  99  64 /  20  30  30  20
Roswell......................... 103  69 103  68 /  10  10  20  20
Picacho.........................  98  64  98  64 /  20  10  30  20
Elk.............................  97  62  97  62 /  30   5  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1240 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

NMZ227-241915-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass NM-
1240 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN COLFAX COUNTY UNTIL
115 PM MDT...

At 1240 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 29
miles north of Ute Park, or 26 miles west of Raton, moving east at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Mainly rural areas of Northwestern Colfax County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3690 10503 3699 10501 3699 10469 3683 10468
      3687 10497 3688 10497 3688 10498 3689 10500
      3690 10501
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 275DEG 9KT 3696 10491

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
100 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

NMZ207-208-241-241930-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands NM-West Central
Highlands NM-Southwest Mountains NM-
100 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL CATRON
AND WESTERN SOCORRO COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM MDT...

At 100 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms extending from 10 miles northeast of Datil to 24 miles
east of Beaverhead, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Datil, National Radio Astronomy Observatory, Dusty and Alamo.

This includes Highway 60 between Mile Markers 66 and 104.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Blowing dust associated with strong thunderstorm winds can reduce
visibility below one quarter mile at times.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 10797 3435 10785 3435 10778 3440 10775
      3446 10763 3445 10761 3445 10756 3451 10752
      3454 10745 3386 10734 3348 10729 3348 10795
      3377 10798
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 248DEG 17KT 3425 10773 3383 10774 3351 10771

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

77