Damaging Winds in Wyoming, June 2, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1228 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will warm into 70s and 80s under mostly sunny
  skies this afternoon. There is a 15% to 30% chance of virga,
  light rain, and a few rumbles of thunder from the Uinta
  Mountains to Midwest from 1PM to 8PM. Gusty 40 to 50 mph winds
  could occur around any virga or light rain.

- Low light rain and thunderstorm chances (15%) exist Wednesday
  evening and overnight, mainly across western Wyoming. Shower
  and thunderstorm chances (20% to 40%) become confined to far
  northern Wyoming on Thursday.

- High temperatures through the week and into the upcoming
  weekend are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s, with highs
  reaching the low 90s on Saturday east of the Divide.

- Warm, dry, and breezy winds will bring elevated to near
  critical fire weather conditions through at least Saturday.
  Forecasted minimum relative humidity values are in the 8% to
  15% range with afternoon wind gusts in of 20 to 35 mph.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1227 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

The forecast remains on track for this afternoon with southwest flow
aloft and the passage of an embedded shortwave. A area of vorticity
associated with the shortwave is forecast to be located from the
Uinta Mountains to Midwest this afternoon. As the energy treks
northeastwards, there will be just enough mid-level moisture and
boundary layer instability (200 to 600 J/kg) to focus isolated
shower activity across the Wind Corridor (up to 30% chance).
However, virga or only light rain showers are expected with minimal
accumulations due to the dry low levels. Dewpoint depressions this
afternoon will be in the 35 to 45 degree Fahrenheit range, so any
virga or light shower could produce gusty 40 to 50 mph outflows. A
few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across the aforementioned
area, however, the chances of a thunderstorm are less than 20% given
overall weak updrafts. This virga, light shower, and thunderstorm
potential exists from 1PM to 8PM. Otherwise, widespread breezy winds
are expected with high temperatures in the 70s and 80s under mostly
sunny skies.

As mentioned in the morning discussion, a weak ridge will build
across the Intermountain West on Wednesday. Given this ridge will be
relatively weak, it will begin to break down late Wednesday
afternoon and early evening ahead of Thursday's shortwave. As it
breaks down, recent model guidance has begun to hint on increased
vorticity aloft and some available mid level moisture across western
Wyoming after 00Z Thursday. There is a 15% chance of light rain and
even a thunderstorm Wednesday evening and overnight in the
aforementioned area. Because the low levels will still be relatively
dry, there is low confidence in how much liquid will make it to the
surface. Thus, there is generally a 15% to 30% chance of a 0.01" of
rain by Thursday morning. The forecast for Thursday remains on track
with shower and thunderstorm chances (20% to 40%) for northern
Wyoming as the shortwave trough and weak front trek across the
state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

The meandering trough continues to spin along the MT/Canada
border this morning, and will bring another weak shortwave
around the south side during the day today. Light showers are
already moving across greater Sweetwater County, sweeping to
the northeast. Current timing for this trough is late morning
into early afternoon, which will put most of the energy with the
wave into NE WY during peak heating this afternoon. So the
current band of showers will remain fairly weak with minimal
accumulations into the early afternoon, and likely won't
strengthen until after they reach NE WY. The remainder of
western and central Wyoming will continue with mostly sunny
skies and temperatures again reaching the 70s and 80s. With
some wind gusts reaching 15 to 25 mph today, there will be some
elevated fire weather concerns for lower elevations.

As this wave moves northeast tonight, weak ridging will build
into western WY overnight, keeping things more stable during the
day Wednesday. Skies will be mostly sunny again, with most areas
seeing highs in the 80s.

Another shortwave moves mainly across Montana during the day
Thursday, which will be close enough to bring showers to far
northern WY Thursday afternoon. Stronger ridging builds Friday
into the weekend, with even warmer temperatures in the 80s,
with some 90 degree readings east of the Divide on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1104 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period, with some passing high
clouds and afternoon cumulus. A few light showers could be around
KRKS and KCPR this afternoon, with outflow gusts up to 45 knots
being the main hazard. There could also be lightning if a shower
gets stronger, though this would be more likely around KRKS. A gusty
west wind this afternoon decreases this evening, with light winds
overnight.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...Gerhardt
DISCUSSION...Straub
AVIATION...Wittmann