Hail and Damaging Winds in North Dakota, June 2, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1031 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this
  afternoon and evening over the Devils Lake Basin.

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Wednesday afternoon and evening over eastern North Dakota and
  the Red River valley.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed between
Valley City and Devils Lake under some elevated instability
with MU CAPE up to 2000 J/kg and a weak lead shortwave coming
out in the southwesterly flow. Effective shear is pretty weak,
so cells have been going up and coming down, but continue to
develop. Adjusted POPs for some higher probabilities west of the
Red River Valley through the rest of the morning into the
afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 719 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

From looking over model data it looks like the main region for
severe thunderstorm development will on the west edge of the
warm temperatures where the highest most unstable and surface
CAPE values will be. Plus also a 50-60 kt 500 mb jet will rotate
north around the Saskatchewan upper low across western ND into
southwest Manitoba this afternoon. Development of severe storms
would be most favorable due to this 500 mb jet in north central
ND early or mid afternoon. This would be west of the fcst area.
Flow aloft is nearly south to north, slight east advancement,
so storms will tend to train over the same area and unless
storms can become more discrete and isolated severe weather
potential may be limited and not as widespread as it could be.
T-storm chance enters DVL basin mid afternoon and then only
gradually spreads east as the individual storms move NNE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...Synopsis...

An active weather pattern will continue this week as the H5 ridge
axis flattens and moves slowly to the east. A cut off low remains in
place in eastern Montana this afternoon, but will be drifting slowly
to the northeast tonight into Tuesday and Wednesday. This will be a
source of showers and thunderstorms over the next several days
before merging with the H5 flow and moving eastward late this week.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected both Tuesday and
Wednesday, with impact areas depending on the progression of the
aforementioned upper low and the associated shortwaves. Moving into
Thursday and Friday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain in
the forecast, mainly across the southern portions of the CWA. Timing
remains quite uncertain, however, especially Friday onward into the
weekend. At this time, there are low chances for showers and storms
on Saturday, with a return to potentially strong storms heading into
Sunday and Monday.

...Severe Thunderstorm Chances Tuesday...

An axis of instability will be in place Tuesday across central North
Dakota. As this axis moves east, thunderstorms are expected to
develop starting during the early afternoon, then move slowly
eastward through late evening. Model soundings have been
consistently showing strong low and mid level lapse rates, as well
as MLCAPE in the 2000-2500 J/Kg range. Low and mid level shear,
however, will be tied closely to the axis of instability. As storms
form and move to the east, they will be moving into an environment
with much lower shear and instability, thus potentially limiting the
eastward extent of severe thunderstorms. Several scenarios are
possible, which will be strongly dependent on where the boundary
sets up during the afternoon. Currently, the best chances exist
across the Devils Lake Basin and areas to the south and west. Storm
mode currently favors supercells and/or hybrid clusters, with all
hazards possible.

...Severe Thunderstorm Chances Wednesday...

Heading into Wednesday, the H5 upper low moves slightly further to
the east, thus bringing our axis of instability further into eastern
North Dakota. Where it ends up will depend on a number of factors;
however, there will be another boundary pushing to the southeast
later Wednesday afternoon. This will serve to provide additional
lift and forcing, further supporting thunderstorm development during
the afternoon and evening. Initiation timing is also a bit uncertain
at this time, mainly because there could be remnant showers ongoing
during the morning hours and limiting daytime heating. The
environment will be supportive of severe storms as MLCAPE climbs to
near 2000 J/Kg and lapse rates remain strong. Low to mid level shear
will be located close to the boundary once more; however, better
forcing is expected as the reinforcing boundary pushes to the
southeast during the afternoon and evening. Current storm mode
favors hybrid clusters, followed by the potential for upscale growth
into line segments and/or QLCS. Once more, soundings support all
hazards.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 719 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

DVL TAF site will be most impacted by thunderstorms mid
afternoon and into tonight. It will take quite some time for
storm chances to reach GFK airport and may hold off til well
past 03z if not later. Rest of the area likely to not see much
til after 12z Wednesday. High and mid level clouds out ahead of
our system today with a southeast wind 10-20 kts sustained with
gusts to 25 kts within the RRV.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

UPDATE...Riddle/JR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Riddle

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
717 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-054-031230-
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-Western Walsh-
717 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening over the Devils Lake Basin. The main
hazards are hail to golf balls, wind gusts 60 mph and a tornado
is possible. Heavy rainfall may occur as wel.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
Wednesday with continued hail and wind threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

MNZ001>005-007-008-013>016-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ008-016-026>030-
038-039-049-052-053-031230-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-West Marshall-East Marshall-
Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Pembina-
Eastern Walsh-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-
Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
717 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage slowly from the
west tonight. Isolated severe possible this evening in parts of
northeast North Dakota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms for
southeast North Dakota and parts of west central Minnesota on
Wednesday. Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
elsewhere on Wednesday. Main hazards are hail to golf ball and 60
mph wind. Localized heavy rainfall as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

MNZ006-009-017-031230-
Lake Of The Woods-North Beltrami-South Beltrami-
717 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northwest
Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon with
RH values dropping to the 20 to 25 percent range and southeast
winds 10 to 15 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
Wednesday with hail and wind threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

NDZ015-054-021700-
Western Walsh County ND-Ramsey ND-
1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RAMSEY AND
NORTHWESTERN WALSH COUNTIES THROUGH NOON CDT...

At 1130 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lawton, or 26 miles northeast of Devils Lake, moving northeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Edmore, Adams, Fairdale, and Lawton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4854 9805 4846 9790 4825 9845 4835 9857
      4855 9836
TIME...MOT...LOC 1630Z 223DEG 24KT 4835 9841

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Perroux

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1200 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

NDZ007-015-054-021730-
Western Walsh County ND-Ramsey ND-Cavalier ND-
1200 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CAVALIER AND
NORTHEASTERN RAMSEY COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM CDT...

At 1200 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fairdale, or 16 miles south of Langdon, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Osnabrock, Milton, Nekoma, Fairdale, and Hove Mobile Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4867 9792 4861 9793 4841 9824 4840 9840
      4851 9856 4873 9837
TIME...MOT...LOC 1700Z 210DEG 30KT 4852 9830

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Perroux